Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Mon Jun 4 16:07:02 UTC 2012

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 041606
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1106 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012
   
   VALID 041700Z - 051200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL/ERN NV...WRN UT...FAR NWRN
   AZ...
   PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS DAY 1 OUTLOOK WAS TO ADD A DISCUSSION
   REGARDING ISOLATED DRY TSTM POTENTIAL OVER CNTRL AND NRN NM.
   ELSEWHERE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES REQUIRED.
   
   ...HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL/NRN NM...
   UPSLOPE ELY FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROMOTE THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF CNTRL AND NRN NM...INCLUDING THE MANZANO...JEMEZ...AND
   SRN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTN RANGES. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME WELL-MIXED BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
   LARGE T-TD SPREADS AND INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE
   FOR EVAPORATIVELY COOLED DOWNDRAFTS AND GUSTY WINDS. ALTHOUGH
   DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND RESULTANT STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
   WEAK/SLOW...LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK
   OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...RESULTING IN AN ISOLATED THREAT
   FOR DRY TSTMS.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 06/04/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0234 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO THE WRN CONUS
   WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW EXITS
   THE NE STATES. A BELT OF STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SRN
   PERIPHERY OF THE WRN CONUS SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SRN
   ID WILL SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
   GREAT BASIN. ADDITIONALLY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
   PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NV. FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE NE STATES UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE TN
   VALLEY AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE LWR MS VALLEY. 
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN NV...WRN UT...
   STRONG SLY/SWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED WRN CONUS SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. AS
   THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN ID.
   THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEADING
   TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NV AND UT. THIS SFC PRESSURE
   GRADIENT AND INCREASING MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED
   WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ACROSS MUCH
   OF NV AND WRN UT. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
   ACROSS ERN NV. WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING
   WITH AN INCREASE TO 25-30 MPH BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. POOR OVERNIGHT
   RECOVERY SHOULD ALLOW RH VALUES TO QUICKLY DROP INTO THE TEENS AND
   20S BY LATE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NV AND SW UT ARE
   EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S WHICH SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES FROM
   DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES RH
   VALUES ACROSS CNTRL NV MAY STAY ABOVE 15 PERCENT BUT THE ANTICIPATED
   PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS AND RH VALUES BETWEEN 15-20
   PERCENT STILL JUSTIFY A CRITICAL RISK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NW
   UT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...RESULTING IN
   SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
   JUXTAPOSITION OF SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES AND STRONG...GUSTY WINDS
   WILL RESULT IN HIGH-END CRITICAL VALUES ACROSS NW UT. 
   
   ...MUCH OF UT /E OF CRITICAL AREA/...NRN AZ...AND SWRN WY
   POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE E OF
   THE CRITICAL AREA WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 15 PERCENT
   BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
   LIMITING FACTOR REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THIS
   AREA IS WIND SPEEDS. SUSTAINED SLY/SWLY WIND SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY
   INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH BUT ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 15
   TO 20 MPH. AS SUCH...ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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