Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Mon Jun 4 16:07:02 UTC 2012
Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 041606
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012
VALID 041700Z - 051200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL/ERN NV...WRN UT...FAR NWRN
AZ...
PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS DAY 1 OUTLOOK WAS TO ADD A DISCUSSION
REGARDING ISOLATED DRY TSTM POTENTIAL OVER CNTRL AND NRN NM.
ELSEWHERE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES REQUIRED.
...HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL/NRN NM...
UPSLOPE ELY FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL AND NRN NM...INCLUDING THE MANZANO...JEMEZ...AND
SRN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTN RANGES. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME WELL-MIXED BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LARGE T-TD SPREADS AND INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE
FOR EVAPORATIVELY COOLED DOWNDRAFTS AND GUSTY WINDS. ALTHOUGH
DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND RESULTANT STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
WEAK/SLOW...LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK
OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...RESULTING IN AN ISOLATED THREAT
FOR DRY TSTMS.
..ROGERS.. 06/04/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0234 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO THE WRN CONUS
WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW EXITS
THE NE STATES. A BELT OF STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE WRN CONUS SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SRN
ID WILL SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. ADDITIONALLY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NV. FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NE STATES UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE TN
VALLEY AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE LWR MS VALLEY.
...CNTRL/ERN NV...WRN UT...
STRONG SLY/SWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WRN CONUS SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. AS
THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN ID.
THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEADING
TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NV AND UT. THIS SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND INCREASING MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF NV AND WRN UT. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS ERN NV. WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING
WITH AN INCREASE TO 25-30 MPH BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY SHOULD ALLOW RH VALUES TO QUICKLY DROP INTO THE TEENS AND
20S BY LATE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NV AND SW UT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S WHICH SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES FROM
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES RH
VALUES ACROSS CNTRL NV MAY STAY ABOVE 15 PERCENT BUT THE ANTICIPATED
PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS AND RH VALUES BETWEEN 15-20
PERCENT STILL JUSTIFY A CRITICAL RISK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NW
UT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...RESULTING IN
SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
JUXTAPOSITION OF SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES AND STRONG...GUSTY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH-END CRITICAL VALUES ACROSS NW UT.
...MUCH OF UT /E OF CRITICAL AREA/...NRN AZ...AND SWRN WY
POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE E OF
THE CRITICAL AREA WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 15 PERCENT
BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
LIMITING FACTOR REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THIS
AREA IS WIND SPEEDS. SUSTAINED SLY/SWLY WIND SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH BUT ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 15
TO 20 MPH. AS SUCH...ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...