Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Sat Jun 9 16:26:03 UTC 2012

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 091625
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1125 AM CDT SAT JUN 09 2012
   
   VALID 091700Z - 101200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NV...MUCH OF UT/AZ/NM...S
   CNTRL WY...WRN CO...FAR WRN TX...
   
   ...ERN NV...MUCH OF UT/AZ/NM...S CNTRL WY...WRN CO...FAR WRN TX...
   HIGH-END CRITICAL TO BRIEFLY/LOCALLY EXTREME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST TODAY. 16Z OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE CRITICAL
   AREA ARE ALREADY SHOWING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
   LARGELY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...WITH EXTENDED
   DURATIONS OF CRITICAL VALUES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
   TODAY. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN NOTED OVER ERN
   UT...NRN AZ...AND NWRN NV. STRENGTHENING WINDS CAN BE
   ANTICIPATED...WITH A WIND SHIFT OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD
   FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. ONLY A MINOR ADJUSTMENT
   WAS NEEDED OVER SERN WY...WHERE STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 MPH
   WITH STRONGER GUSTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR 15 PERCENT ARE
   EXPECTED.
   
   ...ERN NM...
   PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND HI-RES
   MODELS SUGGEST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF NEAR 3% COULD BE
   ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE JUST BELOW
   CRITICAL THRESHOLDS /15 TO 20 MPH/...STRONGER GUSTS COULD CONTRIBUTE
   TO FIRE SPREAD.
   
   ...SACRAMENTO VALLEY...NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...
   PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK. BRIEF/LOCALLY CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH ALIGN WITH
   MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR 10 TO 20 PERCENT.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 06/09/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0246 AM CDT SAT JUN 09 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH ATTENDANT TROUGH
   EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES WILL PROGRESS EWD
   TODAY. STRONG W/SWLY FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
   A STRENGTHENING LEE SFC LOW WILL RESULT IN STRONG SFC WINDS. WITH
   WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   SOUTHWEST...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
   
   ...ERN NV...MUCH OF UT/AZ/NM...S CNTRL WY...WRN CO...FAR WRN TX...
   ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
   HIGH-END CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN AZ/FAR SERN
   UT INTO NWRN NM AND FAR SWRN CO. DISPARITY BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS
   WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF SFC WIND FIELDS WILL PRECLUDE THE
   UPGRADE TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL IN THESE LOCATIONS...BUT SHOULD MODELS
   COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OR SFC OBSERVATIONS LATER THIS MORNING
   WARRANT IT...AN UPGRADE COULD BECOME NECESSARY.  EITHER WAY...STRONG
   SWLY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH AND
   HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED. RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 6-12 PERCENT
   RANGE AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S. A COLD FRONT WILL
   MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /EXCEPT SRN PORTIONS OF THE CRITICAL/
   DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SWLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N/NE.
   
   ...ERN NM...
   RH VALUES WILL BE CRITICALLY LOW /IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/ WITH HIGHS
   IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS APPEAR MORE
   MARGINAL THAN FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA. SPEEDS NEAR 15
   MPH GUSTING TO 25 ARE POSSIBLE. WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...WIND DRIVEN
   FIRES COULD POSE AN ENHANCED THREAT.
   
   ...SACRAMENTO VALLEY...NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...
   DRY...NLY POST-FRONTAL SFC WINDS NEAR 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
   ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MODERATE DROUGHT
   CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIP MAY LEAD TO A MARGINAL THREAT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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