Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 181653
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
VALID 181700Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN ID / FAR SERN ORE / NV / UT /
WRN AND N-CNTRL CO / A LARGE PART OF WY / NRN AZ / PARTS OF SRN AND
ERN CA...
...SRN ID / FAR SERN ORE / NV / UT / WRN AND N-CNTRL CO / A LARGE
PART OF WY / NRN AZ / PARTS OF SRN AND ERN CA...
FOUR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CRITICAL AREA:
/1/ THE SWRN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED SWWD/SWD
TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL PARTS OF SRN CA AND NRN AZ. IN THIS AREA...THE
LATEST MULTI-DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE PRESENCE OF A
REGION OF ENHANCED 700-MB FLOW ATOP A RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WHICH WILL SUPPORT WSWLY TO WLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. AND...WITH DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS
IN MANY AREAS...RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO 5-14 AS STRONG
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING OCCURS THROUGH THE DAY.
/2/ THE WRN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED WWD INTO A
SMALL PART OF NERN CA. ACROSS THE ADDED AREA...STRENGTHENING WLY
FLOW ALOFT...A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER...AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS IN
THE LEE OF THE SIERRAS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WLY SFC
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG WITH RH VALUES OF 11-15
PERCENT.
/3/ THE NRN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED NWD INTO
ADDITIONAL PARTS OF SRN ID AND FAR SERN ORE. WITH A BELT OF STRONG
DEEP-LAYER FLOW OVERLAYING THE ADDED AREA...WSWLY/WLY/WNWLY WINDS OF
20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR AS MIXED LAYER
HEIGHTS INCREASE. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 12-15 PERCENT AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S. THESE CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND THROUGH
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WHERE DRY FUELS EXIST UPON COORDINATION WITH
THE POCATELLO IDAHO WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.
/4/ THE NERN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED NEWD INTO
PARTS OF NERN/N-CNTRL WY. A NWD/NEWD SURGE OF A DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
AND ACCOMPANYING STRONG VERTICAL MIXING INTO STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW WSWLY TO WLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE ADDED AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CROSSING THE REGION.
RH VALUES FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS WILL BE FOUND
IN THE WAKE OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SURGE...WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER
WARMING/DRYING AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS IN SOME AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH A LARGE
AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. TODAY.
...AREAS TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE UPDATED CRITICAL AREA ACROSS
EXTREME SERN CA / CNTRL AND SRN AZ / SRN AND CNTRL CO / WRN NM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. DESPITE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES...CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS --
MARGINAL IN NATURE -- ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON ANY MORE THAN A
SPOTTY/BRIEF BASIS IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE EAST OF THE UPDATED CRITICAL AREA...
TO THE WEST OF A N/S-ORIENTED SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE...CRITICALLY LOW RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE AS STRONG VERTICAL MIXING OCCURS
IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HOT SFC TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS FORECAST TO
PREVENT CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED SFC WIND SPEEDS FROM OCCURRING
ON ANY MORE THAN A SPOTTY/BRIEF BASIS.
TO THE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE...A RELATIVELY TIGHTER SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT AREAS OF STRONG
WINDS...THOUGH RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT
RH VALUES FROM BECOMING CRITICALLY LOW ON ANY MORE THAN A
BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF OVERLAP OF CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS/LOW RH ON ANY
MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS...THE CRITICAL AREA DOES NOT EXTEND
FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AT THIS TIME.
...PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY / OH VALLEY...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
..COHEN.. 06/18/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0133 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ATTENDANT SPEED MAX MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SERN MT BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. A BELT OF STRONG
WLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SWD ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
THE GREAT BASIN WHILE A LOWER LATITUDE UPPER SPEED MAX MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE SWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE PERIOD. A
LARGE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS FORECAST OVER THE
GREAT BASIN...PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SW...AND CNTRL ROCKIES.
...NV / UT / WRN AND N-CNTRL CO / SRN-CNTRL WY / NRN AZ / PARTS OF
CA MOHAVE DESERT...
STRONG WINDS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DEEPENS AND UNDERGOES STRONG MIXING BY LATE MORNING. MODELS
INDICATE SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 20-30 MPH IN THE
CRITICAL AREA...WITH HIGHER VALUES LOCATED WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM
N-CNTRL NV EWD INTO SRN WY THAT IS UNDERNEATH A BELT OF 30-40 KT H7
FLOW. THE LATEST OBSERVED RAOBS SHOWED AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED AS
VERY DRY/HOT IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT ACROSS THIS REGION. AS MIXING
OCCURS...RH WILL RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE 5-15 PERCENT RANGE. RH
RECOVERY IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE SLOW...EXCEPT FOR NRN AREAS
AFFECTED BY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONCURRENT WIND SHIFT.
...SERN CA / CNTRL-SRN AZ / SRN-CNTRL CO / WRN NM...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS RH VALUES FALL
INTO THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MIDDLE TEENS WITH WLY TO WNWLY
WINDS OF 15-20 MPH EXPECTED. MARGINAL SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
PRECLUDE A CRITICAL DESIGNATION.
...PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY / OH VALLEY...
AREAS OF STRONG SLY TO SSWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME GUSTS AOA 30 MPH. HOT TEMPS /90S/ WILL YIELD RH VALUES
FALLING AS LOW AS THE 30S -- SUPPORTING A VERY LOCALIZED ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER RISK IN AREAS WHERE RECENT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
RELATIVELY MORE LIMITED.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 181736
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN UT / NWRN CO / SRN WY...
...NERN UT / NWRN CO / SRN WY...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
...FAR SWRN NM / SRN AZ / SERN CA...
RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO 6-11 PERCENT IN COMBINATION WITH
STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. AND...WITH A ZONE OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED TROPOSPHERIC WINDS
OVERLAYING THE REGION...WLY TO WNWLY SFC WINDS OF 15 TO
OCCASIONALLY/BRIEFLY 20 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. THESE FACTORS WILL
SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW...CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY
BASIS.
...PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY / OH VALLEY...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
..COHEN.. 06/18/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0228 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED MID
LEVEL FEATURE MANITOBA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A
PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY BY EVENING WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS AND EXTENDING WWD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE TO THE N OF THE FRONT INVOF THE
UT/CO/WY BORDER WHERE A BELT OF STRONGER H7 FLOW WILL RESIDE DURING
PEAK HEATING.
...NERN UT / NWRN CO / SRN WY...
AN UPPER SPEED MAX AND STRONG DEEP TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RESIDE
OVER THIS REGION. AN ENHANCED AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AS DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COMMENCES. DESPITE COOLER
SURFACE TEMPS COMPARED TO MONDAY...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT RH FALLING INTO THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
...FAR SWRN NM AND SERN AZ...
A ZONE OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS IS FORECAST TO WRAP
AROUND A MID-UPPER ANTICYCLONE --LOCATED OFF THE BAJA CA COAST-- IN
A CLOCKWISE MANNER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-1 KM MEAN FLOW
APPROACHING 20 MPH IN THIS LOCALIZED AREA. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPS
YIELDING RH IN THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS WILL PROBABLY ACT TO ENHANCE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY / OH VALLEY...
AREAS OF STRONG SLY TO SSWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME GUSTS AOA 30 MPH. HOT TEMPS /90S/ WILL YIELD RH VALUES
FALLING AS LOW AS THE 30S -- SUPPORTING PERHAPS A VERY LOCALIZED
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IN AREAS WHERE RECENT PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN RELATIVELY MORE LIMITED.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...