Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 181653
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1153 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
   
   VALID 181700Z - 191200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN ID / FAR SERN ORE / NV / UT /
   WRN AND N-CNTRL CO / A LARGE PART OF WY / NRN AZ / PARTS OF SRN AND
   ERN CA...
   
   ...SRN ID / FAR SERN ORE / NV / UT / WRN AND N-CNTRL CO / A LARGE
   PART OF WY / NRN AZ / PARTS OF SRN AND ERN CA...
   FOUR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CRITICAL AREA:
   
   /1/ THE SWRN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED SWWD/SWD
   TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL PARTS OF SRN CA AND NRN AZ. IN THIS AREA...THE
   LATEST MULTI-DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE PRESENCE OF A
   REGION OF ENHANCED 700-MB FLOW ATOP A RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
   GRADIENT...WHICH WILL SUPPORT WSWLY TO WLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH
   HIGHER GUSTS. AND...WITH DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS
   IN MANY AREAS...RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO 5-14 AS STRONG
   BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING OCCURS THROUGH THE DAY.
   
   /2/ THE WRN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED WWD INTO A
   SMALL PART OF NERN CA. ACROSS THE ADDED AREA...STRENGTHENING WLY
   FLOW ALOFT...A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER...AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS IN
   THE LEE OF THE SIERRAS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WLY SFC
   WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG WITH RH VALUES OF 11-15
   PERCENT.
   
   /3/ THE NRN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED NWD INTO
   ADDITIONAL PARTS OF SRN ID AND FAR SERN ORE. WITH A BELT OF STRONG
   DEEP-LAYER FLOW OVERLAYING THE ADDED AREA...WSWLY/WLY/WNWLY WINDS OF
   20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR AS MIXED LAYER
   HEIGHTS INCREASE. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 12-15 PERCENT AS
   TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S. THESE CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND THROUGH
   THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WHERE DRY FUELS EXIST UPON COORDINATION WITH
   THE POCATELLO IDAHO WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.
   
   /4/ THE NERN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED NEWD INTO
   PARTS OF NERN/N-CNTRL WY. A NWD/NEWD SURGE OF A DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
   AND ACCOMPANYING STRONG VERTICAL MIXING INTO STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL
   ALLOW WSWLY TO WLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO EXPAND
   ACROSS THE ADDED AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CROSSING THE REGION.
   RH VALUES FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS WILL BE FOUND
   IN THE WAKE OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SURGE...WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER
   WARMING/DRYING AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS IN SOME AREAS.
   
   OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH A LARGE
   AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WRN
   U.S. TODAY.
   
   ...AREAS TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE UPDATED CRITICAL AREA ACROSS
   EXTREME SERN CA / CNTRL AND SRN AZ / SRN AND CNTRL CO / WRN NM...
   NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. DESPITE THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES...CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS --
   MARGINAL IN NATURE -- ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON ANY MORE THAN A
   SPOTTY/BRIEF BASIS IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
   
   ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE EAST OF THE UPDATED CRITICAL AREA...
   TO THE WEST OF A N/S-ORIENTED SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE...CRITICALLY LOW RH
   VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE AS STRONG VERTICAL MIXING OCCURS
   IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HOT SFC TEMPERATURES.
   HOWEVER...THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS FORECAST TO
   PREVENT CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED SFC WIND SPEEDS FROM OCCURRING
   ON ANY MORE THAN A SPOTTY/BRIEF BASIS.
   
   TO THE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE...A RELATIVELY TIGHTER SFC
   PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT AREAS OF STRONG
   WINDS...THOUGH RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT
   RH VALUES FROM BECOMING CRITICALLY LOW ON ANY MORE THAN A
   BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS.
   
   GIVEN THE LACK OF OVERLAP OF CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS/LOW RH ON ANY
   MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS...THE CRITICAL AREA DOES NOT EXTEND
   FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY / OH VALLEY...
   NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
   
   ..COHEN.. 06/18/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0133 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
   ATTENDANT SPEED MAX MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW.  THIS FEATURE IS
   FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SERN MT BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.  A BELT OF STRONG
   WLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SWD ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
   THE GREAT BASIN WHILE A LOWER LATITUDE UPPER SPEED MAX MOVES EWD
   ACROSS THE DESERT SW.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
   ACCELERATE SWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE PERIOD.  A
   LARGE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS FORECAST OVER THE
   GREAT BASIN...PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SW...AND CNTRL ROCKIES.
     
   ...NV / UT / WRN AND N-CNTRL CO / SRN-CNTRL WY / NRN AZ / PARTS OF
   CA MOHAVE DESERT...
   STRONG WINDS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION AS THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER DEEPENS AND UNDERGOES STRONG MIXING BY LATE MORNING.  MODELS
   INDICATE SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 20-30 MPH IN THE
   CRITICAL AREA...WITH HIGHER VALUES LOCATED WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM
   N-CNTRL NV EWD INTO SRN WY THAT IS UNDERNEATH A BELT OF 30-40 KT H7
   FLOW.  THE LATEST OBSERVED RAOBS SHOWED AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED AS
   VERY DRY/HOT IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT ACROSS THIS REGION.  AS MIXING
   OCCURS...RH WILL RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE 5-15 PERCENT RANGE.  RH
   RECOVERY IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE SLOW...EXCEPT FOR NRN AREAS
   AFFECTED BY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONCURRENT WIND SHIFT.
   
   ...SERN CA / CNTRL-SRN AZ / SRN-CNTRL CO / WRN NM...
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS RH VALUES FALL
   INTO THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MIDDLE TEENS WITH WLY TO WNWLY
   WINDS OF 15-20 MPH EXPECTED.  MARGINAL SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
   PRECLUDE A CRITICAL DESIGNATION.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY / OH VALLEY...
   AREAS OF STRONG SLY TO SSWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
   WITH SOME GUSTS AOA 30 MPH.  HOT TEMPS /90S/ WILL YIELD RH VALUES
   FALLING AS LOW AS THE 30S -- SUPPORTING A VERY LOCALIZED ELEVATED
   FIRE WEATHER RISK IN AREAS WHERE RECENT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
   RELATIVELY MORE LIMITED.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 181736
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1236 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN UT / NWRN CO / SRN WY...
   
   ...NERN UT / NWRN CO / SRN WY...
   NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
   
   ...FAR SWRN NM / SRN AZ / SERN CA...
   RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO 6-11 PERCENT IN COMBINATION WITH
   STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES. AND...WITH A ZONE OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED TROPOSPHERIC WINDS
   OVERLAYING THE REGION...WLY TO WNWLY SFC WINDS OF 15 TO
   OCCASIONALLY/BRIEFLY 20 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. THESE FACTORS WILL
   SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF
   STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW...CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
   ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY
   BASIS.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY / OH VALLEY...
   NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
   
   ..COHEN.. 06/18/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0228 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED MID
   LEVEL FEATURE MANITOBA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...A
   PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER
   VALLEY BY EVENING WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS AND EXTENDING WWD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE TO THE N OF THE FRONT INVOF THE
   UT/CO/WY BORDER WHERE A BELT OF STRONGER H7 FLOW WILL RESIDE DURING
   PEAK HEATING.
   
   ...NERN UT / NWRN CO / SRN WY...
   AN UPPER SPEED MAX AND STRONG DEEP TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RESIDE
   OVER THIS REGION.  AN ENHANCED AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IS LIKELY TO
   DEVELOP AS DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COMMENCES.  DESPITE COOLER
   SURFACE TEMPS COMPARED TO MONDAY...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT RH FALLING INTO THE 10-15
   PERCENT RANGE PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
   
   ...FAR SWRN NM AND SERN AZ...
   A ZONE OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS IS FORECAST TO WRAP
   AROUND A MID-UPPER ANTICYCLONE --LOCATED OFF THE BAJA CA COAST-- IN
   A CLOCKWISE MANNER.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-1 KM MEAN FLOW
   APPROACHING 20 MPH IN THIS LOCALIZED AREA.  VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPS
   YIELDING RH IN THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS WILL PROBABLY ACT TO ENHANCE
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY / OH VALLEY...
   AREAS OF STRONG SLY TO SSWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
   WITH SOME GUSTS AOA 30 MPH.  HOT TEMPS /90S/ WILL YIELD RH VALUES
   FALLING AS LOW AS THE 30S -- SUPPORTING PERHAPS A VERY LOCALIZED
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IN AREAS WHERE RECENT PRECIPITATION HAS
   BEEN RELATIVELY MORE LIMITED.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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