Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Tue Jun 26 16:57:03 UTC 2012

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 261656
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1156 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
   
   VALID 261700Z - 271200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN/E-CNTRL NV...A
   LARGE PART OF UT...A LARGE PART OF WY...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN/ERN
   MT...NWRN CO...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN CO...OK PANHANDLE...WRN
   KS...PORTIONS OF SWRN/CNTRL NEB...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL CO AND SERN
   WY...
   
   ...PORTIONS OF SRN/E-CNTRL NV...A LARGE PART OF UT...A LARGE PART OF
   WY...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN/ERN MT...NWRN CO...
   THE PREVIOUS NV/UT AND WY/MT CRITICAL AREAS WERE CONNECTED TO NOW
   INCLUDE A LARGE PART OF UT...ADDITIONAL PARTS OF SRN WY...AND EXTEND
   INTO NWRN CO. WITHIN THE CONNECTED AREA...SWLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH
   AND HIGHER GUSTS ALONG WITH RH VALUES OF 10-15 PERCENT WILL SUPPORT
   A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE LATEST MODEL
   GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A ZONE OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
   FLOW WILL SUPPORT STRONG SFC WINDS AS VERTICAL MIXING
   INCREASES...WITH UPWARDS OF 25 MPH OF FLOW RECENTLY SAMPLED BELOW
   3.5 KFT PER GRAND JUNCTION VWP DATA. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL
   AREA HAS ALSO BEEN EXPANDED WWD INTO SWRN MT...WHERE DOWNSLOPE
   EFFECTS IN THE PRESENCE OF A TROPOSPHERIC JET MAX WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT SLY/SWLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND RH OF 5-15 PERCENT. LATEST
   OBSERVATIONS ALREADY INDICATE THE ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS ACROSS
   PARTS OF SWRN MT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA...CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
   
   ...FAR SERN CO...OK PANHANDLE...WRN KS...PORTIONS OF SWRN/CNTRL
   NEB...
   THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO EXPAND THE CRITICAL
   AREA NWD ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL NEB...WHERE THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL
   CONSENSUS INDICATES STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING WITHIN A FAIRLY NARROW
   ZONE OF CRITICALLY DRY SFC CONDITIONS. WITHIN THE ADDED
   AREA...UPWARDS OF 30 MPH OF FLOW BELOW 3.5 KFT PER NORTH PLATTE NEB
   VWP DATA WILL SUPPORT SLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AS VERTICAL
   MIXING INCREASES...AND RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO 10-15
   PERCENT. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
   CRITICAL AREA IS ON TRACK.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL CO AND SERN WY...
   A CRITICAL AREA FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED. SCATTERED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NARROW
   RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PER RECENT WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
   ROCKIES AND MOVE NEWD/ENEWD...AND DEPOSIT LITTLE PRECIPITATION OWING
   TO DEEP/WELL-MIXED SUB-CLOUD LAYERS...PW VALUES OF AROUND 0.70-0.80
   INCH...AND MODEST STORM MOTIONS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CO FRONT RANGE AND
   IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS INTO NEARBY PARTS OF SERN WY.
   
   ...ERN AZ...NWRN NM...ERN UT...WRN/CNTRL CO...SERN WY SURROUNDING
   THE DRY-THUNDERSTORM CRITICAL AREA...
   AN UPGRADE TO DRY-THUNDERSTORM CRITICAL DESIGNATION HAS BEEN MADE
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL CO AND SERN WY...AS DISCUSSED IN THE
   PREVIOUS SUBSECTION. SURROUNDING THIS CRITICAL AREA...THE
   DRY-THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN THE ABSENCE OF
   STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT/GREATER MOISTURE...AND THUS THE PREVIOUS
   FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
   
   ..COHEN.. 06/26/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0232 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE PAC NW
   ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
   WILL DEEPEN OVER ERN MT AND SRN SK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
   ACCELERATE EWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE ITS SWWD SEGMENT
   MOVES MORE SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS...A LEE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN BY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL FAVOR
   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL S-SWLYS ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF SRN/E-CNTRL NV...W-CNTRL/SWRN UT...
   A BAND OF MODERATE MIDLEVEL SWLYS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL TRAIL
   THE DEPARTING TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY. THIS FLOW
   COMBINED WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL FAVOR SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG WINDS
   COMBINED WITH RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WILL
   RESULT IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MT...CNTRL WY...
   A 70 KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO ENTER WRN/CNTRL MT LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DRY SLOT SPREADING
   NEWD INTO CNTRL WY AND ERN MT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE RAPID ONSET OF
   CRITICALLY STRONG SURFACE WIND SPEEDS /FROM 20-30 MPH/ BY LATE
   MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL ALSO PLUMMET TO 5-15 PERCENT
   AS DOWNSLOPE SWLY WINDS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE PROBABLE.
   
   ...FAR SERN CO...OK PANHANDLE...WRN KS...FAR SWRN/S-CNTRL NEB...
   AS A LEE TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND FAVOR THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED S-SWLY WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH. VERY HOT
   AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL ALSO YIELD
   SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST SURFACE WIND
   SPEEDS. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH DRYING FUELS WILL RESULT IN A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...ERN AZ...NWRN NM...ERN UT...WRN/CNTRL CO...SERN WY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN
   A PLUME OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ARCING N-NEWD FROM ERN AZ INTO ERN
   UT/WRN CO AND SERN WY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR A FEW DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY RESIDE ACROSS ERN UT...WRN/CNTRL CO...AND
   SERN WY...WHERE WEAK CAPE...PW VALUES BELOW 0.75 INCH...AND
   MODERATELY FAST STORM SPEEDS WILL BE PROBABLE.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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