Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Tue Jun 26 16:57:03 UTC 2012
Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 261656
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
VALID 261700Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN/E-CNTRL NV...A
LARGE PART OF UT...A LARGE PART OF WY...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN/ERN
MT...NWRN CO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN CO...OK PANHANDLE...WRN
KS...PORTIONS OF SWRN/CNTRL NEB...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL CO AND SERN
WY...
...PORTIONS OF SRN/E-CNTRL NV...A LARGE PART OF UT...A LARGE PART OF
WY...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN/ERN MT...NWRN CO...
THE PREVIOUS NV/UT AND WY/MT CRITICAL AREAS WERE CONNECTED TO NOW
INCLUDE A LARGE PART OF UT...ADDITIONAL PARTS OF SRN WY...AND EXTEND
INTO NWRN CO. WITHIN THE CONNECTED AREA...SWLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH
AND HIGHER GUSTS ALONG WITH RH VALUES OF 10-15 PERCENT WILL SUPPORT
A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A ZONE OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL SUPPORT STRONG SFC WINDS AS VERTICAL MIXING
INCREASES...WITH UPWARDS OF 25 MPH OF FLOW RECENTLY SAMPLED BELOW
3.5 KFT PER GRAND JUNCTION VWP DATA. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL
AREA HAS ALSO BEEN EXPANDED WWD INTO SWRN MT...WHERE DOWNSLOPE
EFFECTS IN THE PRESENCE OF A TROPOSPHERIC JET MAX WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SLY/SWLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND RH OF 5-15 PERCENT. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS ALREADY INDICATE THE ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS ACROSS
PARTS OF SWRN MT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA...CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
...FAR SERN CO...OK PANHANDLE...WRN KS...PORTIONS OF SWRN/CNTRL
NEB...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO EXPAND THE CRITICAL
AREA NWD ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL NEB...WHERE THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING WITHIN A FAIRLY NARROW
ZONE OF CRITICALLY DRY SFC CONDITIONS. WITHIN THE ADDED
AREA...UPWARDS OF 30 MPH OF FLOW BELOW 3.5 KFT PER NORTH PLATTE NEB
VWP DATA WILL SUPPORT SLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AS VERTICAL
MIXING INCREASES...AND RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO 10-15
PERCENT. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CRITICAL AREA IS ON TRACK.
...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL CO AND SERN WY...
A CRITICAL AREA FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED. SCATTERED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NARROW
RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PER RECENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES AND MOVE NEWD/ENEWD...AND DEPOSIT LITTLE PRECIPITATION OWING
TO DEEP/WELL-MIXED SUB-CLOUD LAYERS...PW VALUES OF AROUND 0.70-0.80
INCH...AND MODEST STORM MOTIONS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CO FRONT RANGE AND
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS INTO NEARBY PARTS OF SERN WY.
...ERN AZ...NWRN NM...ERN UT...WRN/CNTRL CO...SERN WY SURROUNDING
THE DRY-THUNDERSTORM CRITICAL AREA...
AN UPGRADE TO DRY-THUNDERSTORM CRITICAL DESIGNATION HAS BEEN MADE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL CO AND SERN WY...AS DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS SUBSECTION. SURROUNDING THIS CRITICAL AREA...THE
DRY-THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN THE ABSENCE OF
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT/GREATER MOISTURE...AND THUS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
..COHEN.. 06/26/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0232 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE PAC NW
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEEPEN OVER ERN MT AND SRN SK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
ACCELERATE EWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE ITS SWWD SEGMENT
MOVES MORE SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...A LEE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN BY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL FAVOR
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL S-SWLYS ACROSS THE REGION.
...PORTIONS OF SRN/E-CNTRL NV...W-CNTRL/SWRN UT...
A BAND OF MODERATE MIDLEVEL SWLYS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL TRAIL
THE DEPARTING TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY. THIS FLOW
COMBINED WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL FAVOR SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG WINDS
COMBINED WITH RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WILL
RESULT IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MT...CNTRL WY...
A 70 KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO ENTER WRN/CNTRL MT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DRY SLOT SPREADING
NEWD INTO CNTRL WY AND ERN MT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE RAPID ONSET OF
CRITICALLY STRONG SURFACE WIND SPEEDS /FROM 20-30 MPH/ BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL ALSO PLUMMET TO 5-15 PERCENT
AS DOWNSLOPE SWLY WINDS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE PROBABLE.
...FAR SERN CO...OK PANHANDLE...WRN KS...FAR SWRN/S-CNTRL NEB...
AS A LEE TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED S-SWLY WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH. VERY HOT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL ALSO YIELD
SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH DRYING FUELS WILL RESULT IN A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...ERN AZ...NWRN NM...ERN UT...WRN/CNTRL CO...SERN WY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN
A PLUME OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ARCING N-NEWD FROM ERN AZ INTO ERN
UT/WRN CO AND SERN WY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR A FEW DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY RESIDE ACROSS ERN UT...WRN/CNTRL CO...AND
SERN WY...WHERE WEAK CAPE...PW VALUES BELOW 0.75 INCH...AND
MODERATELY FAST STORM SPEEDS WILL BE PROBABLE.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...