Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Thu Jun 28 07:47:03 UTC 2012

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 280744
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0244 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN MO...SRN/ERN IL...MUCH OF
   IND...WRN OH AND THE WRN HALF OF KY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN CONUS TODAY AS
   A TROUGH APPROACHES HUDSON BAY AND LARGE MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS
   ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN STATES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION BY AFTERNOON...WHILE WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT BECOMES
   STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...EXPANSIVE EML PLUME
   WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY...AIDING IN THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF VERY HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. OVER THE SWRN CONUS
   AND SRN ROCKIES...FEED OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVANCING AROUND THE
   WRN PERIPHERY OF SRN CONUS ANTICYCLONE WILL FAVOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
   AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   ...SERN MO...SRN/ERN IL...MUCH OF IND...WRN OH AND THE WRN HALF OF
   KY...
   AS A COLD FRONT BECOMES POSITIONED FROM LWR MI W-SWWD INTO THE CNTRL
   PLAINS...DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW FIELDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
   AND AID IN ADVECTING A WARM DRY AIRMASS EWD. THIS WILL LEAD TO DEEP
   BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND VERY HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES /AOA
   100F/...AND FAVOR MIN RH VALUES FROM THE TEENS OVER THE LWR OH
   VALLEY TO 20S OVER CNTRL IND INTO WRN OH. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
   WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 15 TO AROUND 20 MPH. GIVEN
   THE CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS DROUGHT/DRY FUELS...A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LIKELY.
   
   ...CO FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS...NRN/CNTRL/WRN NM...
   THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
   SCATTERED ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS...TO ISOLATED
   OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL/WRN NM. A CRITICAL DELINEATION FOR DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS WAS INITIALLY CONSIDERED FOR CO PORTIONS OF THE
   DISCUSSION AREA GIVEN DRY/INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES AND DRY
   FUELS. HOWEVER...PW VALUES AOA 0.75 INCH AND SLOW STORM SPEEDS
   SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT WET...AND THE THREAT FOR DRY
   STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED.
   
   ...SWRN/CNTRL KS...
   MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL AID IN
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED SLY WIND SPEEDS NEAR 15 MPH THIS
   AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES
   FROM 10-15 PERCENT WILL FAVOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...SRN/CNTRL/ERN NV...WRN UT...ERN ID...SWRN/S-CNTRL WY...
   MODERATE MIDLEVEL SWLYS RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH DEEP
   BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL FAVOR THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FROM 15-20 MPH. IN
   ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND A DRY ANTECEDENT
   AIRMASS WILL YIELD MIN RH VALUES FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER NV TO
   THE LOW-MID TEENS IN WY. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS
   WILL YIELD AN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...SWRN MT...
   A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY OVER NRN CA EARLY THIS
   MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CNTRL ID AND ENTER SWRN MT LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT. DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   FEATURE WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
   SWRN MT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES
   AND FAST MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.
   
   ..GARNER.. 06/28/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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