Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Thu Jun 28 16:53:02 UTC 2012
Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 281652
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
VALID 281700Z - 291200Z
CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK GRAPHIC DRY THUNDERSTORM CRITICAL AREA
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ...E-CNTRL ID THROUGH ALL OF SW
MT......
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ..SERN MO...SRN/ERN IL...MUCH OF
IND...WRN OH AND THE WRN HALF OF KY......
...E-CNTRL ID THROUGH ALL OF SW MT...
HAVE UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS SEE TEXT AREA TO A CRITICAL DRY
THUNDERSTORM AREA. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
LIGHTNING EVENT ACROSS SOME OF THE FORESTS. BOTH SREF AND PPF
INDICATE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE IN THE SW PART OF THIS
AREA AS EARLY AS THE 18 TO 21 UTC TIME PERIOD. THE BULK OF ANY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 21 TO 03 UTC TIME PERIOD.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE STORM BASES AROUND 10000 FT AGL. VERY LOW PW
NOTED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS WITH LITTLE OVERALL INCREASE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY.
REPORTS WITHIN THE AREA INDICATE THE FUELS ARE EXTREMELY DRY...WHILE
THERE ARE A FEW AREAS NOT YET FULLY DRIED OUT. OVERALL THE MAJORITY
OF THE FUELS ARE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH
THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IN THE WELL MIXED SFC LAYER AROUND 15 TO 25
PERCENT.
..SERN MO...SRN/ERN IL...MUCH OF IND...WRN OH AND THE WRN HALF OF
KY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THIS CRITICAL AREA AS COMBINATION OF
EXTREME HEAT...VERY LOW RH AND STRONG WLY/SWLY WINDS STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE THE FUELS ARE
ABNORMALLY DRY AND DROUGHT IS ONGOING.
...CO FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS...NRN/CNTRL/WRN NM...
SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR A LITTLE DRIER
SUB-CLOUD AIR AND GUIDANCE INDICATES MORE MARGINAL PRECIP OVERALL.
THIS IS A MIX BETWEEN WET AND DRY STORMS AND GIVEN THE DRY
FUELS...ANY LIGHTNING FROM THE STORMS ON THE EDGE OF THE MAIN PRECIP
AREAS COULD START NEW FIRES. IN ANY EVENT...ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM
WINDS FROM THE OUTFLOW COULD DEFINITELY CAUSE PROBLEMS OVER ANY
EXISTING FIRES.
...SWRN/CNTRL KS...
STILL HOT AND DRY OVER THIS AREA...ALTHOUGH JUST SLIGHTLY IMPROVED
FROM THE EXTREME CONDITIONS OF YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL HAVE A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST A FEW DEGREES LESS
HOT WITH HUMIDITY STILL IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
...SRN/CNTRL/ERN NV...WRN UT...ERN ID...SWRN/S-CNTRL WY...
PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS SEE TEXT AREA.
..BOTHWELL.. 06/28/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0244 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN CONUS TODAY AS
A TROUGH APPROACHES HUDSON BAY AND LARGE MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN STATES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY AFTERNOON...WHILE WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...EXPANSIVE EML PLUME
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY...AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF VERY HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. OVER THE SWRN CONUS
AND SRN ROCKIES...FEED OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVANCING AROUND THE
WRN PERIPHERY OF SRN CONUS ANTICYCLONE WILL FAVOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
...SERN MO...SRN/ERN IL...MUCH OF IND...WRN OH AND THE WRN HALF OF
KY...
AS A COLD FRONT BECOMES POSITIONED FROM LWR MI W-SWWD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS...DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW FIELDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
AND AID IN ADVECTING A WARM DRY AIRMASS EWD. THIS WILL LEAD TO DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND VERY HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES /AOA
100F/...AND FAVOR MIN RH VALUES FROM THE TEENS OVER THE LWR OH
VALLEY TO 20S OVER CNTRL IND INTO WRN OH. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 15 TO AROUND 20 MPH. GIVEN
THE CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS DROUGHT/DRY FUELS...A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LIKELY.
...CO FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS...NRN/CNTRL/WRN NM...
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
SCATTERED ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS...TO ISOLATED
OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL/WRN NM. A CRITICAL DELINEATION FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INITIALLY CONSIDERED FOR CO PORTIONS OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA GIVEN DRY/INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES AND DRY
FUELS. HOWEVER...PW VALUES AOA 0.75 INCH AND SLOW STORM SPEEDS
SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT WET...AND THE THREAT FOR DRY
STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED.
...SWRN/CNTRL KS...
MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED SLY WIND SPEEDS NEAR 15 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES
FROM 10-15 PERCENT WILL FAVOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...SRN/CNTRL/ERN NV...WRN UT...ERN ID...SWRN/S-CNTRL WY...
MODERATE MIDLEVEL SWLYS RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FROM 15-20 MPH. IN
ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND A DRY ANTECEDENT
AIRMASS WILL YIELD MIN RH VALUES FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER NV TO
THE LOW-MID TEENS IN WY. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS
WILL YIELD AN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...SWRN MT...
A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY OVER NRN CA EARLY THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CNTRL ID AND ENTER SWRN MT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT. DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SWRN MT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES
AND FAST MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...