Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Thu Jun 28 16:53:02 UTC 2012

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 281652
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1152 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
   
   VALID 281700Z - 291200Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK GRAPHIC DRY THUNDERSTORM CRITICAL AREA
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ...E-CNTRL ID THROUGH ALL OF SW
   MT......
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ..SERN MO...SRN/ERN IL...MUCH OF
   IND...WRN OH AND THE WRN HALF OF KY......
   
   ...E-CNTRL ID THROUGH ALL OF SW MT...
   HAVE UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS SEE TEXT AREA TO A CRITICAL DRY
   THUNDERSTORM AREA.  THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
   LIGHTNING EVENT ACROSS SOME OF THE FORESTS.  BOTH SREF AND PPF
   INDICATE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE IN THE SW PART OF THIS
   AREA AS EARLY AS THE 18 TO 21 UTC TIME PERIOD.  THE BULK OF ANY DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 21 TO 03 UTC TIME PERIOD. 
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE STORM BASES AROUND 10000 FT AGL.  VERY LOW PW
   NOTED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS WITH LITTLE OVERALL INCREASE EXPECTED
   DURING THE DAY.  
   
   REPORTS WITHIN THE AREA INDICATE THE FUELS ARE EXTREMELY DRY...WHILE
   THERE ARE A FEW AREAS NOT YET FULLY DRIED OUT. OVERALL THE MAJORITY
   OF THE FUELS ARE DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH
   THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IN THE WELL MIXED SFC LAYER AROUND 15 TO 25
   PERCENT. 
   
   ..SERN MO...SRN/ERN IL...MUCH OF IND...WRN OH AND THE WRN HALF OF
   KY...
   NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THIS CRITICAL AREA AS COMBINATION OF
   EXTREME HEAT...VERY LOW RH AND STRONG WLY/SWLY WINDS STILL EXPECTED
   ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE THE FUELS ARE
   ABNORMALLY DRY AND DROUGHT IS ONGOING. 
   
   ...CO FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS...NRN/CNTRL/WRN NM...
   SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
   YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR A LITTLE DRIER
   SUB-CLOUD AIR AND GUIDANCE INDICATES MORE MARGINAL PRECIP OVERALL. 
   THIS IS A MIX BETWEEN WET AND DRY STORMS AND GIVEN THE DRY
   FUELS...ANY LIGHTNING FROM THE STORMS ON THE EDGE OF THE MAIN PRECIP
   AREAS COULD START NEW FIRES.  IN ANY EVENT...ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM
   WINDS FROM THE OUTFLOW COULD DEFINITELY CAUSE PROBLEMS OVER ANY
   EXISTING FIRES.
   
   ...SWRN/CNTRL KS...
   STILL HOT AND DRY OVER THIS AREA...ALTHOUGH JUST SLIGHTLY IMPROVED
   FROM THE EXTREME CONDITIONS OF YESTERDAY.  WINDS WILL HAVE A
   SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST A FEW DEGREES LESS
   HOT WITH HUMIDITY STILL IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. 
   
   ...SRN/CNTRL/ERN NV...WRN UT...ERN ID...SWRN/S-CNTRL WY...
   PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS SEE TEXT AREA.
   
   ..BOTHWELL.. 06/28/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0244 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN CONUS TODAY AS
   A TROUGH APPROACHES HUDSON BAY AND LARGE MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS
   ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN STATES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION BY AFTERNOON...WHILE WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT BECOMES
   STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...EXPANSIVE EML PLUME
   WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY...AIDING IN THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF VERY HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. OVER THE SWRN CONUS
   AND SRN ROCKIES...FEED OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVANCING AROUND THE
   WRN PERIPHERY OF SRN CONUS ANTICYCLONE WILL FAVOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
   AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   ...SERN MO...SRN/ERN IL...MUCH OF IND...WRN OH AND THE WRN HALF OF
   KY...
   AS A COLD FRONT BECOMES POSITIONED FROM LWR MI W-SWWD INTO THE CNTRL
   PLAINS...DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW FIELDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
   AND AID IN ADVECTING A WARM DRY AIRMASS EWD. THIS WILL LEAD TO DEEP
   BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND VERY HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES /AOA
   100F/...AND FAVOR MIN RH VALUES FROM THE TEENS OVER THE LWR OH
   VALLEY TO 20S OVER CNTRL IND INTO WRN OH. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
   WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 15 TO AROUND 20 MPH. GIVEN
   THE CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS DROUGHT/DRY FUELS...A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LIKELY.
   
   ...CO FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS...NRN/CNTRL/WRN NM...
   THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
   SCATTERED ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS...TO ISOLATED
   OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL/WRN NM. A CRITICAL DELINEATION FOR DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS WAS INITIALLY CONSIDERED FOR CO PORTIONS OF THE
   DISCUSSION AREA GIVEN DRY/INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES AND DRY
   FUELS. HOWEVER...PW VALUES AOA 0.75 INCH AND SLOW STORM SPEEDS
   SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT WET...AND THE THREAT FOR DRY
   STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED.
   
   ...SWRN/CNTRL KS...
   MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL AID IN
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED SLY WIND SPEEDS NEAR 15 MPH THIS
   AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES
   FROM 10-15 PERCENT WILL FAVOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...SRN/CNTRL/ERN NV...WRN UT...ERN ID...SWRN/S-CNTRL WY...
   MODERATE MIDLEVEL SWLYS RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH DEEP
   BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL FAVOR THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FROM 15-20 MPH. IN
   ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND A DRY ANTECEDENT
   AIRMASS WILL YIELD MIN RH VALUES FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER NV TO
   THE LOW-MID TEENS IN WY. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS
   WILL YIELD AN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...SWRN MT...
   A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY OVER NRN CA EARLY THIS
   MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CNTRL ID AND ENTER SWRN MT LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT. DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   FEATURE WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
   SWRN MT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES
   AND FAST MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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