Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Thu Jul 5 07:25:04 UTC 2012

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 050723
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 AM CDT THU JUL 05 2012
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN EXPANSIVE CNTRL U.S. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD WWD...WITH MID-UPPER
   LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...ROCKIES AND GREAT
   BASIN. AS A RESULT...COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING WILL INCREASE...BUT
   WETTING RAINS /POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES/ WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE
   THREAT OF FIRE SPREAD. MEANWHILE...A CNTRL WY SURFACE LOW WILL
   DEEPEN AND PROGRESS INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH SLY WINDS
   STRENGTHENING TO THE S. ELSEWHERE...A COMPACT UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER
   THE CNTRL CANADIAN PROVINCES WILL REACH THE HUDSON BAY LATE IN THE
   PERIOD. STRONGER DEEP LAYER FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
   GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO N OF THE BORDER...LIMITING THE THREAT
   OF WIND-DRIVEN FIRES ACROSS THE U.S. /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS
   OF THE PLAINS ATTENDANT TO THE LEE TROUGH/.
   
   ...NERN NV...SRN ID...
   07Z WV IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURRING WELL INTO THE
   GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH MEASURABLE /ALBEIT LIGHT/
   RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL NV. GIVEN THE 00Z LKN/BOI
   SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY LOW-LEVELS...IT IS FEASIBLE THAT ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE NRN
   PERIPHERY OF GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTING NWD. HOWEVER...DETERMINISTIC
   MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM TEMPERATURES ABOVE 500 MB
   THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT INSTABILITY...LIKELY HINDERING A
   HIGHER THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS.
   
   ...SERN CO...SWRN KS...
   SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SUSTAINED SLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15-20
   MPH /WITH HIGHER GUSTS/. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FELL INTO THE UPPER
   TEENS YESTERDAY...AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS
   AND FORECAST HIGHS...UPPER TEEN TO LOWER 20S RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
   WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...LEADING TO A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT.
   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER WELL OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 07/05/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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