Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Thu Jul 5 19:20:05 UTC 2012

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD1)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 051918
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0218 PM CDT THU JUL 05 2012
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...FAR NERN NV...SRN/CNTRL ID...
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES PWATS AROUND 0.7 INCH ARE EXPECTED
   ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE
   WILL BE LOCATED ABOVE 600 MB WITH THE LOWER LEVELS MIXING OUT WELL.
   THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE IN THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE RIDGE
   ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL TSTMS. GIVEN THE SLOW
   STORM MOTIONS AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...MOST OF THE TSTM
   ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WET. HOWEVER...THE DRY LOW LEVELS SUGGEST
   A FEW DRY TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NERN NV AND
   S-CNTRL ID.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 07/05/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0339 AM CDT THU JUL 05 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN EXPANSIVE CNTRL U.S. UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WWD AND
   EWD...LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
   NATION. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WET THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
   SOUTHWEST...ERN GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES...WITH DRIER THUNDERSTORMS
   POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN/CNTRL ID. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
   THE GREAT LAKES AND MUCH OF THE EAST. WITH STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW
   GENERALLY CONFINED N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...THE THREAT OF
   WIND-DRIVEN FIRES ACROSS THE CONUS WILL REMAIN LOW.
   
   ...SRN/CNTRL ID...
   MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PROGRESSING NWD ON D1/THU WILL GRADUALLY BE
   SHUNTED EWD ON D2/FRI...WITH A MAJORITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
   OCCURRING TO THE S AND E OF ID. COOLER PROFILES ALOFT /ABOVE 500 MB/
   THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY SHOULD SUPPORT MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...WITH
   LINGERING MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH-BASED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODEL FORECASTS
   APPEAR TO BE QUITE VARIED ON THE EXPECTED PWAT VALUES...POSSIBLY
   SUPPORTING DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR A HYBRID THREAT...WHERE
   LOW-LEVEL SATURATION MAY GRADUALLY LEAD TO LIGHT RAINFALL
   ACCUMULATIONS. REGARDLESS...A HEIGHTENED THREAT OF LIGHTNING-BASED
   IGNITIONS IS EXPECTED GIVEN DRY LOW-LEVELS AND SURFACE RELATIVE
   HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THIS AREA MAY BE CONSIDERED
   FOR A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS AS CONFIDENCE
   INCREASES IN EXPECTED COVERAGE AND RAINFALL /OR LACK THEREOF/.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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