Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Fri Jul 6 08:51:05 UTC 2012

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 060850
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 AM CDT FRI JUL 06 2012
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE COVERING THE CNTRL U.S. IS
   FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A RIDGE AXIS
   WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED NW OF THE ANTICYCLONE CENTER ACROSS THE
   NRN ROCKIES AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...DOWNSTREAM OF A TROUGH
   RESIDING OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
   MOISTURE OVER THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE WILL SUPPORT THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF WET THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST...ERN
   PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE ROCKIES.
   RELATIVELY DRIER THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS SRN/CNTRL
   ID...FAR NERN NV...ERN ORE...AND FAR SERN WA. WITH THE BULK OF THE
   STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW LYING ACROSS S-CNTRL/SERN CANADA AND
   IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PARTS OF THE NRN UNITED STATES AWAY FROM DRIER
   SFC CONDITIONS...THE THREAT OF WIND-DRIVEN FIRES ACROSS THE CONUS
   WILL BE LOW.
   
   ...SRN/CNTRL ID...FAR NERN NV...ERN ORE...FAR SERN WA...
   AS MARGINAL BUOYANCY DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST MODESTLY
   ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT INCREASES WITH
   DIURNAL HEATING...A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. PW VALUES
   GENERALLY FROM 0.55 TO 0.80 INCH PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS/SREF OUTPUT
   WILL SUPPORT A COMBINATION OF MIXED WET/DRY...AS WELL AS
   DRY...THUNDERSTORM MODES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT
   FOR LIGHTNING-INDUCED IGNITIONS. THE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS
   THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE RELATIVELY WARMER SFC TEMPERATURES/DEEPER
   INVERTED-VEE PROFILES/LOWER SFC RH ARE DEPICTED BY FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVERLAYING THE
   REGION AS THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES BETTER DEFINED...THE LACK OF
   STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
   STORMS SUCH THAT A DRY-THUNDERSTORM CRITICAL AREA IS NOT WARRANTED.
   ADDITIONALLY...ACROSS FAR SERN WA AND NERN ORE...ABOVE-NORMAL
   PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS WILL LIKELY LESSEN THE
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..COHEN.. 07/06/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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