Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Thu Aug 2 08:05:03 UTC 2012
Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 020804
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 AM CDT THU AUG 02 2012
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF ERN ID...MUCH OF MT
AND WY...
...SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NW INTO N-CNTRL CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM THE WRN CANADIAN
PROVINCES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. INCREASING DEEP LAYER FLOW AND A SFC
COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.
THESE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...INTENSE ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/S-CNTRL STATES BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES.
...PORTIONS OF ERN ID...MUCH OF MT AND WY...
WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15-20
MPH WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S TO
LOW 90S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS /70S-80S HIGHER ELEV/ WILL RESULT IN
RH VALUES NEAR 10-15 PERCENT AS DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OCCURS.
AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL
BECOME NWLY AND REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY
APPEARS WIDESPREAD AS WELL. GIVEN ONGOING ABNORMALLY DRY TO SEVERE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AND THE EXPECTED COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS/LOW RH VALUES...CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN DELINEATED.
...OK...NRN/CNTRL TX...
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON WEDNESDAY BUT WIND SPEEDS MAY
BE A LITTLE HIGHER AS SFC LOW STRENGTHENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES...RESULTING IN MODEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
THE TX BIG BEND INTO NE OK. THIS WILL LEAD TO S/SW WINDS AROUND 15
MPH GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO
THE 105-115 RANGE WITH MIN RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 10-20
PERCENT. SHOULD WIND SPEEDS TREND HIGHER AN UPGRADE TO CRITICAL MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
..LEITMAN.. 08/02/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...