Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Thu Aug 2 16:37:02 UTC 2012
Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 021636
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT THU AUG 02 2012
VALID 021700Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF ERN ID...MUCH OF MT
AND WY...
...PORTIONS OF ERN ID...SWRN MT AND WY...
HAVE UPDATED THE CRITICAL TO REMOVE A MAJORITY OF MT...WHERE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS REACHING 20 MPH. HOWEVER...BRIEF GUSTS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR 15 TO 25 PERCENT MAY LEAD TO AN ENHANCED
THREAT AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL MT. A WIND
SHIFT IS STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE OVER PORTIONS OF
ERN ID...SWRN MT AND WY...SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WILL LEAD TO A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL INTO THE
UPPER TEENS ACROSS SWRN MT AND LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT MAY INITIALLY BE SLOW...COLD
AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SUPPORT MODEST
RECOVERY BY EARLY MORNING.
...OK AND NRN/CNTRL TX...
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED. SEVERAL HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE
CHALLENGED TODAY. THE EXTENDED DURATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL HAS LED TO VERY DRY FUELS
ACROSS THE AREA.
..HURLBUT.. 08/02/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0304 AM CDT THU AUG 02 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NW INTO N-CNTRL CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM THE WRN CANADIAN
PROVINCES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. INCREASING DEEP LAYER FLOW AND A SFC
COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.
THESE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...INTENSE ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/S-CNTRL STATES BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES.
...PORTIONS OF ERN ID...MUCH OF MT AND WY...
WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15-20
MPH WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S TO
LOW 90S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS /70S-80S HIGHER ELEV/ WILL RESULT IN
RH VALUES NEAR 10-15 PERCENT AS DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OCCURS.
AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL
BECOME NWLY AND REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY
APPEARS WIDESPREAD AS WELL. GIVEN ONGOING ABNORMALLY DRY TO SEVERE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AND THE EXPECTED COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS/LOW RH VALUES...CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN DELINEATED.
...OK...NRN/CNTRL TX...
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON WEDNESDAY BUT WIND SPEEDS MAY
BE A LITTLE HIGHER AS SFC LOW STRENGTHENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES...RESULTING IN MODEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
THE TX BIG BEND INTO NE OK. THIS WILL LEAD TO S/SW WINDS AROUND 15
MPH GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO
THE 105-115 RANGE WITH MIN RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 10-20
PERCENT. SHOULD WIND SPEEDS TREND HIGHER AN UPGRADE TO CRITICAL MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...