Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Thu Aug 2 16:37:02 UTC 2012

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 021636
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1136 AM CDT THU AUG 02 2012
   
   VALID 021700Z - 031200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF ERN ID...MUCH OF MT
   AND WY...
   
   ...PORTIONS OF ERN ID...SWRN MT AND WY...
   HAVE UPDATED THE CRITICAL TO REMOVE A MAJORITY OF MT...WHERE MODEL
   CONSENSUS AND HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS REACHING 20 MPH. HOWEVER...BRIEF GUSTS AND
   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR 15 TO 25 PERCENT MAY LEAD TO AN ENHANCED
   THREAT AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL MT. A WIND
   SHIFT IS STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE OVER PORTIONS OF
   ERN ID...SWRN MT AND WY...SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WILL LEAD TO A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL INTO THE
   UPPER TEENS ACROSS SWRN MT AND LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT MAY INITIALLY BE SLOW...COLD
   AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SUPPORT MODEST
   RECOVERY BY EARLY MORNING.
   
   ...OK AND NRN/CNTRL TX...
   NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED. SEVERAL HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE
   CHALLENGED TODAY. THE EXTENDED DURATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
   TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL HAS LED TO VERY DRY FUELS
   ACROSS THE AREA.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 08/02/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0304 AM CDT THU AUG 02 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NW INTO N-CNTRL CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO
   DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM THE WRN CANADIAN
   PROVINCES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. INCREASING DEEP LAYER FLOW AND A SFC
   COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.
   THESE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY
   CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. FURTHER
   SOUTH AND EAST...INTENSE ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS/S-CNTRL STATES BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF MUCH ABOVE
   NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
   FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF ERN ID...MUCH OF MT AND WY...
   WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15-20
   MPH WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S TO
   LOW 90S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS /70S-80S HIGHER ELEV/ WILL RESULT IN
   RH VALUES NEAR 10-15 PERCENT AS DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OCCURS.
   AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL
   BECOME NWLY AND REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY
   APPEARS WIDESPREAD AS WELL. GIVEN ONGOING ABNORMALLY DRY TO SEVERE
   DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AND THE EXPECTED COMBINATION OF
   GUSTY WINDS/LOW RH VALUES...CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN DELINEATED.
   
   ...OK...NRN/CNTRL TX...
   CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON WEDNESDAY BUT WIND SPEEDS MAY
   BE A LITTLE HIGHER AS SFC LOW STRENGTHENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
   OK/TX PANHANDLES...RESULTING IN MODEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
   THE TX BIG BEND INTO NE OK. THIS WILL LEAD TO S/SW WINDS AROUND 15
   MPH GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO
   THE 105-115 RANGE WITH MIN RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 10-20
   PERCENT. SHOULD WIND SPEEDS TREND HIGHER AN UPGRADE TO CRITICAL MAY
   BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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