Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 031635
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1135 AM CDT FRI AUG 03 2012
   
   VALID 031700Z - 041200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SRN WY...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS /
   SWRN-CNTRL-NERN OK...
   
   ...PARTS OF SRN WY...
   THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST IS TO EXTEND THE CRITICAL
   AREA EWD TO ENCOMPASS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF SRN WY. WITHIN THE ADDED
   AREAS...THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT WLY WINDS OF
   20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL COMBINE WITH RH VALUES OF 10-15
   PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS. DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS IN THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE MOUNTAINS
   WILL AID IN BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING/DRYING. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING
   FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
   
   ...PARTS OF TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS / SWRN-CNTRL-NERN OK...
   NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CRITICAL AREA. TWIN LAKES VWP AND
   PURCELL PROFILER DATA SUGGEST GENERALLY 15-25 MPH OF WSWLY FLOW
   WITHIN THE 0.8-10-KFT-AGL LAYER...WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT WIND
   SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA. HOWEVER...THE 12Z
   NORMAN RAOB AND THE LATEST PURCELL PROFILER DATA INDICATE THE
   PRESENCE OF WEAKER FLOW HIGHER IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. AS THE
   MIXED LAYER DEEPENS...THIS WEAKER FLOW MAY AID IN KEEPING SUSTAINED
   WIND SPEEDS RATHER MARGINAL FOR CRITICAL DESIGNATION.
   REGARDLESS...THE EXPECTATION OF 10-15-PERCENT MINIMUM RH...AND AREAS
   OF EXTREME DROUGHT AND POSSIBLY RECORD-SETTING TEMPERATURES...WILL
   BOLSTER THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WITHIN THE ANTICIPATED WIND SPEED
   RANGE. AS SUCH...THE CRITICAL AREA REMAINS WARRANTED.
   
   ...S-CNTRL OK...NRN/CNTRL TX S OF CRITICAL...
   NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
   
   ..COHEN.. 08/03/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0232 AM CDT FRI AUG 03 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE MT/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
   TO THE ND/MANITOBA BORDER BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  STRONG WLY
   MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
   OVERSPREAD WY AND LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY
   DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF SRN WY.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE
   LOW WILL MIGRATE FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER AS A
   COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE N-CNTRL STATES.  FARTHER S...A LEE
   TROUGH WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE CNTRL-SRN PLAINS STATES.  A MODERATE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF OK-TX DURING PEAK HEATING.
   
   ...PARTS OF SRN WY...
   A BELT OF 20-30 KT H7 FLOW IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD WY DURING PEAK
   HEATING.  AS THIS OCCURS...ANTECEDENT DRY AIR AND A WARM BOUNDARY
   LAYER WILL ALLOW RH TO FALL INTO THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE PROFILES...CONDUCIVE FOR DEEP
   MIXING AND SUPPORTIVE OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH.  
   
   ...WRN N TX INTO CNTRL/NE OK...
   MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SWLY WINDS INCREASING DURING THE
   DAYTIME HOURS WITHIN A THERMAL AXIS BISECTING THE CRITICALLY
   DELINEATED AREA.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE NOTION OF SUSTAINED
   WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH /HIGHER GUSTS/ WITH RH FALLING INTO THE
   10-15 PERCENT RANGE AS TEMPS WARM TO 108-115.  EXTREME DROUGHT AND
   RECORD-SETTING TEMPS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH
   WIND/RH CONDITIONS TO WARRANT A CRITICAL DESIGNATION.
     
   ...S-CNTRL OK...NRN/CNTRL TX S OF CRITICAL...
   WINDS WILL BE MORE SLY AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER S OF THE CRITICAL AREA.
   HOWEVER...RH VALUES FROM 15-20 PERCENT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
   WIDESPREAD...AS ARE TEMPERATURES FROM 100-110. GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT
   AND FORECAST WINDS/RH...AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
   EXIST.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 031926
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 PM CDT FRI AUG 03 2012
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN-CNTRL-SWRN OK / PARTS OF THE
   TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR W-CNTRL NV / SRN-NRN SIERRA NEVADA
   / PORTIONS OF NRN CA...
   
   ...NERN-CNTRL-SWRN OK / PARTS OF THE TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS...
   NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
   
   ...W-CNTRL NV / SRN-NRN SIERRA NEVADA / PORTIONS OF NRN CA...
   ONE MINOR CHANGE TO THE DRY-THUNDERSTORM CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN MADE
   TO REMOVE A SMALL PART OF FAR NERN CA. WITHIN THE REMOVED
   AREA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
   GREATLY LIMITED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY MAY MOVE INTO THE REMOVED AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
   HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOBE OF MODEST ASCENT
   ACCOMPANYING AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION ACCOMPANYING THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS SUCH...THE
   COVERAGE OF ANY DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMOVED AREA IS
   CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOW SUCH THAT CRITICAL
   DESIGNATION IS NOT WARRANTED. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON
   TRACK.
   
   ..COHEN.. 08/03/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0414 AM CDT FRI AUG 03 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STUBBORN MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS
   THE S-CNTRL STATES AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
   MIDWEST.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE S ACROSS THE
   CNTRL PLAINS.  TO THE S OF THIS BOUNDARY...A THERMAL AXIS WITH VERY
   HOT TEMPS WILL EXTEND SW-NE ACROSS OK WITH MODERATELY STRONG WINDS
   DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR -- LEADING TO PROBABLE CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS.  FARTHER W...AN UPPER
   TROUGH SITUATED OFF THE CA COAST WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NWD ALONG THE
   CNTRL-NRN CA COAST.  MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWWD FROM THE
   DESERT SW AND INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...LEADING
   TO A PROBABLE CRITICAL DRY TSTM RISK OVER PORTIONS OF WRN NV/SIERRA
   NEVADA/NRN CA.  
   
   ...NERN-CNTRL-SWRN OK / PARTS OF THE TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS...
   DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
   PLACEMENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE INTO S-CNTRL
   KS DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY.  AN APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SWLY SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH IN
   AREAS ACROSS THE I-44 CORRIDOR IN OK AND EXTENDING INTO THE TX LOW
   ROLLING PLAINS.  SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES FAVORING RH FALLING WELL INTO THE TEENS.  PRECONDITIONING
   PERIOD OF BACKGROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL ANOMALOUS /I.E. RECORD-BREAKING/
   CONDITIONS AND EXTREME DROUGHT WILL PROMOTE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS.
   
   ...W-CNTRL NV / SRN-NRN SIERRA NEVADA / PORTIONS OF NRN CA...
   AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PIVOTS NWD ACROSS CNTRL CA...SUFFICIENT
   MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD
   TO SCATTERED DRY TSTMS.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DRY TSTM RISK
   WILL SPREAD NWD WITH TIME...FOCUSING FROM NEAR AND S OF THE I-80
   VICINITY DURING THE 20-06Z PERIOD AND LATER ACROSS NRN CA DURING THE
   03-12Z PERIOD.  THE GREATEST COVERAGE FOR DRY TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO
   COINCIDE WITH A DIURNAL MAXIMUM IN THE SRN HALF OF THE DISCUSSED
   AREA...BUT AN APPRECIABLE SIGNAL /AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED/ FOR
   INITIALLY DRY TSTMS EXISTS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS FOR NRN CA.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home