Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 031635
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT FRI AUG 03 2012
VALID 031700Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SRN WY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS /
SWRN-CNTRL-NERN OK...
...PARTS OF SRN WY...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST IS TO EXTEND THE CRITICAL
AREA EWD TO ENCOMPASS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF SRN WY. WITHIN THE ADDED
AREAS...THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT WLY WINDS OF
20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL COMBINE WITH RH VALUES OF 10-15
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS IN THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE MOUNTAINS
WILL AID IN BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING/DRYING. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
...PARTS OF TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS / SWRN-CNTRL-NERN OK...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CRITICAL AREA. TWIN LAKES VWP AND
PURCELL PROFILER DATA SUGGEST GENERALLY 15-25 MPH OF WSWLY FLOW
WITHIN THE 0.8-10-KFT-AGL LAYER...WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT WIND
SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA. HOWEVER...THE 12Z
NORMAN RAOB AND THE LATEST PURCELL PROFILER DATA INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF WEAKER FLOW HIGHER IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. AS THE
MIXED LAYER DEEPENS...THIS WEAKER FLOW MAY AID IN KEEPING SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS RATHER MARGINAL FOR CRITICAL DESIGNATION.
REGARDLESS...THE EXPECTATION OF 10-15-PERCENT MINIMUM RH...AND AREAS
OF EXTREME DROUGHT AND POSSIBLY RECORD-SETTING TEMPERATURES...WILL
BOLSTER THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WITHIN THE ANTICIPATED WIND SPEED
RANGE. AS SUCH...THE CRITICAL AREA REMAINS WARRANTED.
...S-CNTRL OK...NRN/CNTRL TX S OF CRITICAL...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
..COHEN.. 08/03/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0232 AM CDT FRI AUG 03 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE MT/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
TO THE ND/MANITOBA BORDER BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STRONG WLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
OVERSPREAD WY AND LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF SRN WY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE
LOW WILL MIGRATE FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE N-CNTRL STATES. FARTHER S...A LEE
TROUGH WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE CNTRL-SRN PLAINS STATES. A MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OK-TX DURING PEAK HEATING.
...PARTS OF SRN WY...
A BELT OF 20-30 KT H7 FLOW IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD WY DURING PEAK
HEATING. AS THIS OCCURS...ANTECEDENT DRY AIR AND A WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL ALLOW RH TO FALL INTO THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE PROFILES...CONDUCIVE FOR DEEP
MIXING AND SUPPORTIVE OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH.
...WRN N TX INTO CNTRL/NE OK...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SWLY WINDS INCREASING DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS WITHIN A THERMAL AXIS BISECTING THE CRITICALLY
DELINEATED AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE NOTION OF SUSTAINED
WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH /HIGHER GUSTS/ WITH RH FALLING INTO THE
10-15 PERCENT RANGE AS TEMPS WARM TO 108-115. EXTREME DROUGHT AND
RECORD-SETTING TEMPS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH
WIND/RH CONDITIONS TO WARRANT A CRITICAL DESIGNATION.
...S-CNTRL OK...NRN/CNTRL TX S OF CRITICAL...
WINDS WILL BE MORE SLY AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER S OF THE CRITICAL AREA.
HOWEVER...RH VALUES FROM 15-20 PERCENT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD...AS ARE TEMPERATURES FROM 100-110. GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT
AND FORECAST WINDS/RH...AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
EXIST.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 031926
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT FRI AUG 03 2012
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN-CNTRL-SWRN OK / PARTS OF THE
TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR W-CNTRL NV / SRN-NRN SIERRA NEVADA
/ PORTIONS OF NRN CA...
...NERN-CNTRL-SWRN OK / PARTS OF THE TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
...W-CNTRL NV / SRN-NRN SIERRA NEVADA / PORTIONS OF NRN CA...
ONE MINOR CHANGE TO THE DRY-THUNDERSTORM CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN MADE
TO REMOVE A SMALL PART OF FAR NERN CA. WITHIN THE REMOVED
AREA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
GREATLY LIMITED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY MOVE INTO THE REMOVED AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOBE OF MODEST ASCENT
ACCOMPANYING AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ACCOMPANYING THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS SUCH...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMOVED AREA IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOW SUCH THAT CRITICAL
DESIGNATION IS NOT WARRANTED. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
..COHEN.. 08/03/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0414 AM CDT FRI AUG 03 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
A STUBBORN MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE S-CNTRL STATES AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE S ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS. TO THE S OF THIS BOUNDARY...A THERMAL AXIS WITH VERY
HOT TEMPS WILL EXTEND SW-NE ACROSS OK WITH MODERATELY STRONG WINDS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR -- LEADING TO PROBABLE CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS. FARTHER W...AN UPPER
TROUGH SITUATED OFF THE CA COAST WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NWD ALONG THE
CNTRL-NRN CA COAST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWWD FROM THE
DESERT SW AND INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...LEADING
TO A PROBABLE CRITICAL DRY TSTM RISK OVER PORTIONS OF WRN NV/SIERRA
NEVADA/NRN CA.
...NERN-CNTRL-SWRN OK / PARTS OF THE TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS...
DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
PLACEMENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE INTO S-CNTRL
KS DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY. AN APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SWLY SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH IN
AREAS ACROSS THE I-44 CORRIDOR IN OK AND EXTENDING INTO THE TX LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES FAVORING RH FALLING WELL INTO THE TEENS. PRECONDITIONING
PERIOD OF BACKGROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL ANOMALOUS /I.E. RECORD-BREAKING/
CONDITIONS AND EXTREME DROUGHT WILL PROMOTE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
...W-CNTRL NV / SRN-NRN SIERRA NEVADA / PORTIONS OF NRN CA...
AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PIVOTS NWD ACROSS CNTRL CA...SUFFICIENT
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD
TO SCATTERED DRY TSTMS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DRY TSTM RISK
WILL SPREAD NWD WITH TIME...FOCUSING FROM NEAR AND S OF THE I-80
VICINITY DURING THE 20-06Z PERIOD AND LATER ACROSS NRN CA DURING THE
03-12Z PERIOD. THE GREATEST COVERAGE FOR DRY TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO
COINCIDE WITH A DIURNAL MAXIMUM IN THE SRN HALF OF THE DISCUSSED
AREA...BUT AN APPRECIABLE SIGNAL /AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED/ FOR
INITIALLY DRY TSTMS EXISTS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS FOR NRN CA.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...