Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 141631
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1131 AM CDT TUE AUG 14 2012
   
   VALID 141700Z - 151200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF N-CNTRL/NW MT...
   
   ...PARTS OF N-CNTRL/NW MT...
   12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND 00Z EXPERIMENTAL SPC-SSEO ARE CONSISTENT IN
   SHOWING PRE-FRONTAL WLY WINDS STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 20 MPH BY THE
   EARLY AFTERNOON. SFC OBSERVATIONS FROM 16Z ALREADY INDICATE ELEVATED
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SUSTAINED
   WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND DEEP BOUNDARY
   LAYER MIXING WITHIN A DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES FALLING
   TO NEAR 10 PERCENT...AND OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
   THESE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RECENT DRYNESS...WILL SUPPORT A
   LOW-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
   FORECAST TO OCCUR AFTER SUNSET...WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE N
   AND COOLER/MORE MOIST AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 08/14/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT TUE AUG 14 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION
   TODAY...WITH A SECOND DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
   DROPPING SWD TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SOMEWHAT
   COOL/HUMID POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN LOW WIND-DRIVEN
   WILDFIRE POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS. FARTHER
   W...STRENGTHENING WLY WINDS OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W AND NRN
   HIGH PLAINS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING NRN STREAM TROUGH.
   
   
   ...WRN/CNTRL MT...E-CNTRL AND SERN ID...WRN WY...
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM
   INTO THE 80S AND 90S...RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS OVER
   PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL MT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH VALUES LOCALLY
   IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER SERN ID. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
   COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL WLYS AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
   MIXING WILL YIELD SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH OVER WRN/CNTRL
   MT...WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-20 MPH EXPECTED
   OVER E-CNTRL/SERN ID AND WRN WY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR AN
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 141747
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1247 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2012
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   
   ...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB...WRN IA...NRN KS...
   A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH NEB DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...BECOMING POSITIONED FROM S-CNTRL NEB NEWD TO NEAR THE
   NEB/SD BORDER BY 00Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE DEGREE OF
   HEATING THAT WILL OCCUR IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS...WITH RECENT
   GFS MODEL FORECASTS CONSISTENTLY COOLER/MORE MOIST...BUT IT APPEARS
   MORE LIKELY THAT A WARMER/DRIER SCENARIO WILL MATERIALIZE...FAVORING
   A HOT/WELL-MIXED DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR
   20 MPH...COMBINING WITH RH VALUES AOB 20 PERCENT...WILL LIKELY
   CREATE AN ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT
   ACROSS NRN KS...S-CNTRL/ERN NEB AND WRN IA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
   
   AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NW AND EVENTUALLY N WILL OCCUR IN
   THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   COULD STILL EXIST FOR 1-2 HRS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE  AS THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER REMAINS DRY. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED HIGH-BASED TSTMS MAY
   DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 08/14/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT TUE AUG 14 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON WED. AT
   THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP S-SEWD...BECOMING
   POSITIONED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS...AND THEN W-NWWD ACROSS WY AND INTO CNTRL ID.
   
   ...SRN ID...
   THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NRN
   INTERMOUNTAIN W AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SWD INTO CNTRL ID AND WRN
   WY. AS THIS OCCURS...A ZONE OF ENHANCED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FROM
   15-20 MPH ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SRN ID. IN
   ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S COMBINED WITH A DRY
   ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL FAVOR MIN RH VALUES NEAR 10 PERCENT. THESE
   CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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