Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Sun Aug 19 16:34:03 UTC 2012

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 191633
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1133 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012
   
   VALID 191700Z - 201200Z
   
   PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY STILL ON TRACK FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PACIFIC NW...MOST LIKELY IN EXTRM NRN NV/ERN
   ORE INTO CNTRL ID AND WRN MT.  PW STILL AROUND 0.75 INCH AND
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE BEST CAPE OF 300 TO 500 J/KG IN ERN ORE
   THIS AFTERNOON WITH OTHER AREAS HAVING LESS CAPE...LEADING TO MORE
   ISOLATED STORMS.  WHILE IT DOES STILL APPEAR TO BE A MORE MARGINAL
   DRY THUNDERSTORM EVENT...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF DRY AND
   WET STORMS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STARTS POSSIBLE FROM SOME DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   ..BOTHWELL.. 08/19/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SERIES OF SMALLER SCALE UPPER DISTURBANCES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
   A WRN RIDGE WILL CONTINUE A THREAT OF DRY/MIXED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE...AN
   UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN STAGNANT ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
   NATION...WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SLOWLY SWD
   THROUGH CNTRL TX WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC...INFLUENCING WIDESPREAD SHOWS AND
   THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   ...ERN ORE/WA...NRN NV...ID...WRN MT...
   DETERMINISTIC MODELS APPEAR TO BE PERFORMING POORLY WITH REGARDS TO
   MOISTURE VALUES ACROSS THE WEST. ACTUAL MEASURED 00Z PWAT VALUES AT
   BOI AND LKN ARE ALREADY NEAR 0.75 INCH...LENDING SUPPORT THAT A MIX
   OF DRY AND WET STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR
   SHOWS ACCUMULATIONS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 0.10 INCH...WHILE OTHER
   FORECASTS ARE LESS FAVORABLE. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY
   /AS OF 07Z/ BEEN OBSERVED OVER SERN ORE...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A
   WEAK VORT MAX OBSERVED OVER SERN ORE/NWRN NV...AND A SURFACE TROUGH
   ORIENTED THROUGH SERN ORE. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
   ISOLD...MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MORNING DEVELOPMENT OF
   THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE LATER
   TODAY AS A NRN CA/CNTRL NV WAVE PROGRESSES NEWD. LINGERING
   CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS CAST UNCERTAINTY WITH POTENTIAL
   DESTABILIZATION AND COVERAGE OF STORMS. WILL NOT UPGRADE AT THIS
   TIME GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...THOUGH TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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