Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Wed Aug 22 07:10:03 UTC 2012

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 220709
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0209 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2012
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT INTO THE SRN GREAT BASIN...SUPPORTING A
   CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST.
   MEANWHILE...A DEAMPLIFYING NRN INTERMOUNTAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL
   QUICKLY PROGRESS INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...LEADING TO THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND CNTRL PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...AN
   ERN TROUGH WILL PERSIST...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE FL PENINSULA.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...
   SLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20 MPH BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST
   THROUGH THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE
   TROUGH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL HEATING
   AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. 00Z OAX/TOP SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY
   DRY LOW-LEVELS...WITH A SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUE OF 20-22%.
   WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS EXPECTED...SIMILAR MINIMUM
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...RESULTING IN A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT AMIDST VERY DRY/DORMANT FUELS.
   
   ...SRN CA /N AND E OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY/ AND SRN SIERRAS...
   WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WET THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF A
   CNTRL/SRN CA UPPER LOW. RECENT DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED
   THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE
   TO ADVECT SWWD AMIDST NELY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
   UPPER SYSTEM. A FEW SRN SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SUSTAINED AS
   THEY DRIFT OVER THE LOWER VALLEYS...WHERE A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL
   LIKELY ALLOW ANY PRECIPITATION TO EVAPORATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE
   GROUND. AS SUCH...A HEIGHTENED THREAT OF LIGHTNING-STARTED FIRES
   WILL EXIST.
   
   ...ERN ID...WRN/CNTRL WY...S CNTRL MT...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION...INFLUENCING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND A SUBTLE STRENGTHENING OF
   WNWLY SURFACE WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL HEATING/MAXIMIZED BOUNDARY
   LAYER MIXING. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT MINIMUM RELATIVE
   HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90
   F...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE SPREAD.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 08/22/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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