Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Wed Aug 22 07:10:03 UTC 2012
Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 220709
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2012
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT INTO THE SRN GREAT BASIN...SUPPORTING A
CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE...A DEAMPLIFYING NRN INTERMOUNTAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY PROGRESS INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND CNTRL PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...AN
ERN TROUGH WILL PERSIST...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE FL PENINSULA.
...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...
SLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20 MPH BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE
TROUGH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. 00Z OAX/TOP SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY
DRY LOW-LEVELS...WITH A SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUE OF 20-22%.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS EXPECTED...SIMILAR MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...RESULTING IN A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT AMIDST VERY DRY/DORMANT FUELS.
...SRN CA /N AND E OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY/ AND SRN SIERRAS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WET THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF A
CNTRL/SRN CA UPPER LOW. RECENT DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED
THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE
TO ADVECT SWWD AMIDST NELY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM. A FEW SRN SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SUSTAINED AS
THEY DRIFT OVER THE LOWER VALLEYS...WHERE A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL
LIKELY ALLOW ANY PRECIPITATION TO EVAPORATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE
GROUND. AS SUCH...A HEIGHTENED THREAT OF LIGHTNING-STARTED FIRES
WILL EXIST.
...ERN ID...WRN/CNTRL WY...S CNTRL MT...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION...INFLUENCING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND A SUBTLE STRENGTHENING OF
WNWLY SURFACE WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL HEATING/MAXIMIZED BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90
F...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE SPREAD.
..HURLBUT.. 08/22/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...