Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 241629
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012
   
   VALID 241700Z - 251200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A LARGE PART OF MT...SERN
   ID...PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN WY...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WRN INTO S-CNTRL
   ND...PART OF WRN INTO N-CNTRL SD...
   
   ...A LARGE PART OF MT...SERN ID...PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN WY...
   NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF WRN INTO S-CNTRL ND...PART OF WRN INTO N-CNTRL SD...
   PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS SEE TEXT ACROSS THIS REGION HAVE BEEN
   UPGRADED TO A CRITICAL AREA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM MORNING
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERALLY ONLY BEEN ON THE ORDER OF A
   TENTH OF AN INCH WITH A FEW SPOTS RECEIVING UP TO A QUARTER INCH
   ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CRITICAL AREA. LATEST NAM POINT FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME DEEPLY MIXED THIS
   AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S...ALLOWING RH
   VALUES TO FALL BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT. SLY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH
   HIGHER GUSTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
   A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN RH VALUES ARE
   FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THAT
   RAINFALL ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA HAS DIMINISHED...AT LEAST LOW-END
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ...FAR SE MT/WRN N AND S DAKOTA...MUCH OF SRN/CNTRL AND ERN WY...
   HAVE COMBINED WHAT REMAINS OF THE PREVIOUS SEE TEXT REGION ACROSS
   MT/ND/SD WITH THAT FURTHER S ACROSS WY. PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THESE
   AREAS REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   EXPECTED.  PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
   
   ...ERN MO/WRN IL/ERN IA...
   NO CHANGES REQUIRED.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 08/24/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0310 AM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS SRN SECTIONS
   OF ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A BELT OF STRONG TROPOSPHERIC
   FLOW SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW. A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE
   PERIOD...WITH STRONG WINDS ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
   ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. ALSO...A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED
   AND GENERALLY SLY SFC WINDS WILL IMPACT THE PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE
   MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY OWING TO THE ENHANCED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
   EAST OF A FRONT/TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
   
   ...A LARGE PART OF MT...SERN ID...PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN WY...
   WLY/NWLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 30-40 MPH /LOCALLY
   HIGHER/ ARE EXPECTED...WITH STRONG WINDS LIKELY IMPACTING N-CNTRL MT
   BY LATE MORNING BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE CRITICAL
   AREA THROUGH THE DAY. DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL AID IN WARMING/DRYING
   IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES IN THE
   UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT BECOMING JUXTAPOSED WITH THE
   AFOREMENTIONED WINDS TO YIELD A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT
   ANY ONGOING FIRES.
   
   ...TO THE EAST OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS FAR ERN MT...WRN/CNTRL
   ND...WRN/CNTRL SD...
   SUSTAINED SFC WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SLY TO NWLY FOLLOWING THE
   PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. RH VALUES
   FALLING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT MAY COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO ENHANCE THE
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT...WITH LOCALIZED/BORDERLINE CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF FAR ERN
   MT...PARTS OF WRN/S-CNTRL ND...AND PORTIONS OF NWRN/N-CNTRL SD.
   HOWEVER...ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THESE AREAS IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
   PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MORNING BREED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
   EXTENT OF ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ACCORDINGLY...THE CRITICAL AREA
   DOES NOT EXTEND FARTHER TO THE EAST AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...TO THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS CNTRL/SRN/ERN
   WY...
   RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO GENERALLY 12-17 PERCENT AS
   VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. AND...WITH WLY/NWLY WINDS
   AROUND 15 TO LOCALLY/BRIEFLY 20 MPH AND LOCALLY HIGHER
   GUSTS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ENSUE. HOWEVER...WITH
   THE REGION BEING DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC
   FLOW...CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON
   ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS. ALSO OF NOTE...AREAS OF MARGINAL
   BUOYANCY MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...AIDED BY SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC
   EFFECTS. PW VALUES OF 0.45 TO 0.60 INCH AND DEEP/WELL-MIXED
   SUB-CLOUD LAYERS WOULD SUPPORT A DRY-THUNDERSTORM MODE.
   HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT BEING DISPLACED TO
   THE NORTH OF THE AREA...STORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
   ISOLATED.
   
   ...ERN MO/WRN IL/ERN IA...
   SLY/SSWLY WINDS OF 15 TO LOCALLY/BRIEFLY 20 MPH /WITH HIGHER GUSTS
   POSSIBLE/ MAY COMBINE WITH RH VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT TO ELEVATE THE
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST
   COUPLE OF WEEKS IN MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT THE OCCURRENCE OF CRITICALLY
   STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 241803
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0103 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   NO CHANGES REQUIRED.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 08/24/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0311 AM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A LOW WILL TRACK EWD/ENEWD ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA AND INTO FAR WRN ONTARIO...WITH A BELT
   OF STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW. A SFC
   FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE N-CNTRL CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH STRONG WINDS ANTICIPATED
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS. ALSO...AREAS OF ENHANCED SLY/SSWLY
   SFC WINDS WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY OWING TO
   THE ENHANCED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE
   PLAINS.
   
   ...NERN/E-CNTRL MT...NRN/CNTRL/WRN ND...
   THE AFOREMENTIONED BELT OF STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
   SUPPORT WSWLY/WLY/WNWLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS
   VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALIGNING WITH THESE
   WINDS...A DRY AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY AID
   IN RH VALUES FALLING TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 20S. HOWEVER...THE
   CONFIDENCE IN CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A
   BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR AN UPGRADE TO
   CRITICAL DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF
   RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
   FURTHERMORE...THE ANTICIPATION OF AREAS OF PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO
   THE ONSET OF THE DIURNALLY HEATING/DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY OFFSET
   THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...ERN MO...WRN/NRN IL...ERN IA...SRN WI...
   SLY/SSWLY WINDS OF 15 TO LOCALLY/BRIEFLY 20 MPH /WITH HIGHER GUSTS
   POSSIBLE/ MAY COMBINE WITH RH VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT TO ELEVATE THE
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST
   COUPLE OF WEEKS IN MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT THE OCCURRENCE OF CRITICALLY
   STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS.
   
   ...WRN WY...
   RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 12 TO 17 PERCENT AS VERTICAL
   MIXING INCREASES. AND...WITH WLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND LOCALLY
   HIGHER GUSTS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ENSUE.
   HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...CRITICALLY
   STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...AND
   THUS NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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