Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 241629
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012
VALID 241700Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A LARGE PART OF MT...SERN
ID...PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN WY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WRN INTO S-CNTRL
ND...PART OF WRN INTO N-CNTRL SD...
...A LARGE PART OF MT...SERN ID...PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN WY...
NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
...PORTIONS OF WRN INTO S-CNTRL ND...PART OF WRN INTO N-CNTRL SD...
PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS SEE TEXT ACROSS THIS REGION HAVE BEEN
UPGRADED TO A CRITICAL AREA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM MORNING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERALLY ONLY BEEN ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OF AN INCH WITH A FEW SPOTS RECEIVING UP TO A QUARTER INCH
ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CRITICAL AREA. LATEST NAM POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME DEEPLY MIXED THIS
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S...ALLOWING RH
VALUES TO FALL BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT. SLY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THAT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA HAS DIMINISHED...AT LEAST LOW-END
CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
...FAR SE MT/WRN N AND S DAKOTA...MUCH OF SRN/CNTRL AND ERN WY...
HAVE COMBINED WHAT REMAINS OF THE PREVIOUS SEE TEXT REGION ACROSS
MT/ND/SD WITH THAT FURTHER S ACROSS WY. PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THESE
AREAS REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
...ERN MO/WRN IL/ERN IA...
NO CHANGES REQUIRED.
..LEITMAN.. 08/24/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0310 AM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS SRN SECTIONS
OF ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A BELT OF STRONG TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW. A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH STRONG WINDS ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. ALSO...A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED
AND GENERALLY SLY SFC WINDS WILL IMPACT THE PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY OWING TO THE ENHANCED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
EAST OF A FRONT/TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
...A LARGE PART OF MT...SERN ID...PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN WY...
WLY/NWLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 30-40 MPH /LOCALLY
HIGHER/ ARE EXPECTED...WITH STRONG WINDS LIKELY IMPACTING N-CNTRL MT
BY LATE MORNING BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE CRITICAL
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL AID IN WARMING/DRYING
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT BECOMING JUXTAPOSED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED WINDS TO YIELD A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT
ANY ONGOING FIRES.
...TO THE EAST OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS FAR ERN MT...WRN/CNTRL
ND...WRN/CNTRL SD...
SUSTAINED SFC WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SLY TO NWLY FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. RH VALUES
FALLING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT MAY COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO ENHANCE THE
FIRE WEATHER THREAT...WITH LOCALIZED/BORDERLINE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF FAR ERN
MT...PARTS OF WRN/S-CNTRL ND...AND PORTIONS OF NWRN/N-CNTRL SD.
HOWEVER...ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THESE AREAS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MORNING BREED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
EXTENT OF ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ACCORDINGLY...THE CRITICAL AREA
DOES NOT EXTEND FARTHER TO THE EAST AT THIS TIME.
...TO THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS CNTRL/SRN/ERN
WY...
RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO GENERALLY 12-17 PERCENT AS
VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. AND...WITH WLY/NWLY WINDS
AROUND 15 TO LOCALLY/BRIEFLY 20 MPH AND LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ENSUE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE REGION BEING DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW...CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON
ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS. ALSO OF NOTE...AREAS OF MARGINAL
BUOYANCY MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AIDED BY SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS. PW VALUES OF 0.45 TO 0.60 INCH AND DEEP/WELL-MIXED
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS WOULD SUPPORT A DRY-THUNDERSTORM MODE.
HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT BEING DISPLACED TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA...STORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
ISOLATED.
...ERN MO/WRN IL/ERN IA...
SLY/SSWLY WINDS OF 15 TO LOCALLY/BRIEFLY 20 MPH /WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE/ MAY COMBINE WITH RH VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT TO ELEVATE THE
FIRE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS IN MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT THE OCCURRENCE OF CRITICALLY
STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 241803
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
NO CHANGES REQUIRED.
..LEITMAN.. 08/24/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0311 AM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A LOW WILL TRACK EWD/ENEWD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA AND INTO FAR WRN ONTARIO...WITH A BELT
OF STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW. A SFC
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS PARTS OF
THE N-CNTRL CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH STRONG WINDS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS. ALSO...AREAS OF ENHANCED SLY/SSWLY
SFC WINDS WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY OWING TO
THE ENHANCED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE
PLAINS.
...NERN/E-CNTRL MT...NRN/CNTRL/WRN ND...
THE AFOREMENTIONED BELT OF STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT WSWLY/WLY/WNWLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS
VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALIGNING WITH THESE
WINDS...A DRY AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY AID
IN RH VALUES FALLING TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 20S. HOWEVER...THE
CONFIDENCE IN CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A
BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR AN UPGRADE TO
CRITICAL DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF
RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
FURTHERMORE...THE ANTICIPATION OF AREAS OF PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO
THE ONSET OF THE DIURNALLY HEATING/DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY OFFSET
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...ERN MO...WRN/NRN IL...ERN IA...SRN WI...
SLY/SSWLY WINDS OF 15 TO LOCALLY/BRIEFLY 20 MPH /WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE/ MAY COMBINE WITH RH VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT TO ELEVATE THE
FIRE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS IN MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT THE OCCURRENCE OF CRITICALLY
STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS.
...WRN WY...
RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 12 TO 17 PERCENT AS VERTICAL
MIXING INCREASES. AND...WITH WLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ENSUE.
HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...CRITICALLY
STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...AND
THUS NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...