Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Thu Mar 8 16:10:02 UTC 2018 (20180308 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20180308 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   FNUS21 KWNS 081608

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1008 AM CST Thu Mar 08 2018

   Valid 081700Z - 091200Z

   The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See
   discussion below for details.

   ..Leitman.. 03/08/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 PM CST Wed Mar 07 2018/

   The overall mid-level synoptic pattern will be characterized by a
   long-wave trough over the eastern U.S. and a broad ridge over the
   West.  At the surface, lee troughing along/east of the Rockies and a
   surface anticyclone centered over Lower Mississippi Valley will
   yield breezy conditions in dry areas of the High Plains along with
   elevated fire weather conditions.  Meanwhile farther east, the
   gradient between a deepening surface trough over the Gulf Stream and
   the aforementioned Mississippi Valley anticyclone will foster breezy
   and dry conditions in portions of the Southeast.

   ...Central New Mexico eastward to far western Oklahoma...
   The aforementioned surface pressure gradient will combine with
   vertical mixing processes and result in broad areas of 10-20 mph
   south-southwesterly surface flow.  This region will reside on the
   northern extent of deeper moisture advection across central Texas,
   with insolation/warming resulting in areas of 12-20% RH values
   during peak heating hours.  The elevated fire weather delineation is
   focused on areas where surface winds will be the strongest and fuels
   remain the driest.  

   ...Portions of the Southeast...
   Favorable surface wind trajectories will result a continued dry
   low-level airmass across the region during peak heating hours as
   minimum RH values fall to around 20-30%.  Despite relatively cool
   surface temperatures (50s to 60F), the presence of 5-15 mph westerly
   surface winds and dry fuels/high ERCs suggest potential for rapid
   fire spread during the afternoon.  An elevated fire weather
   delineation has been made to address this threat.

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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