Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Thu Mar 8 16:10:02 UTC 2018 ( | )
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 081608 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Thu Mar 08 2018 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See discussion below for details. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 PM CST Wed Mar 07 2018/ ...Synopsis... The overall mid-level synoptic pattern will be characterized by a long-wave trough over the eastern U.S. and a broad ridge over the West. At the surface, lee troughing along/east of the Rockies and a surface anticyclone centered over Lower Mississippi Valley will yield breezy conditions in dry areas of the High Plains along with elevated fire weather conditions. Meanwhile farther east, the gradient between a deepening surface trough over the Gulf Stream and the aforementioned Mississippi Valley anticyclone will foster breezy and dry conditions in portions of the Southeast. ...Central New Mexico eastward to far western Oklahoma... The aforementioned surface pressure gradient will combine with vertical mixing processes and result in broad areas of 10-20 mph south-southwesterly surface flow. This region will reside on the northern extent of deeper moisture advection across central Texas, with insolation/warming resulting in areas of 12-20% RH values during peak heating hours. The elevated fire weather delineation is focused on areas where surface winds will be the strongest and fuels remain the driest. ...Portions of the Southeast... Favorable surface wind trajectories will result a continued dry low-level airmass across the region during peak heating hours as minimum RH values fall to around 20-30%. Despite relatively cool surface temperatures (50s to 60F), the presence of 5-15 mph westerly surface winds and dry fuels/high ERCs suggest potential for rapid fire spread during the afternoon. An elevated fire weather delineation has been made to address this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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