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    Day 2 FW Outlook >
Oct 23, 2017 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Mon Oct 23 06:52:02 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20171023 1200Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20171023 1200Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 10,512 16,657,514 Los Angeles, CA...Long Beach, CA...Santa Ana, CA...Anaheim, CA...Riverside, CA...
   FNUS21 KWNS 230650

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z


   A broad anticyclone will continue to overspread areas of the
   Intermountain West and Great Basin, with 1042mb centered over
   northern Idaho by the end of the period.  East of the high, a low
   will rapidly deepen to around 988 mb over the Great Lakes region
   late in the forecast period, setting up a favorable surface pressure
   gradient for gusty winds in portions of the central and northern
   Plains.  Meanwhile, the high over the Intermountain West and a weak
   trough along the California coast will favor an extended period of
   offshore flow and fire weather concerns across coastal ranges of
   southern California and the immediate Lower Colorado River Valley

   ...Coastal Ranges of southern California...
   The aforementioned offshore flow will persist throughout the
   forecast period, with northeasterly 15-25 mph sustained surface
   winds gusting to 40-50 mph especially in terrain-favored areas. 
   Meanwhile, a continued dry airmass will remain in place across the
   region, with already low (near-critical) RH values falling into the
   single digits in a few locales as temperatures rise into the 90s F
   during peak heating hours.  With dry fuels in place, elevated and
   critical fire weather delineations remain in place, with critical
   areas corresponding to regions of strongest surface flow and
   critical RH.

   ...Southeastern Montana southeastward to central Kansas...
   The aforementioned surface pressure gradient between the western
   high and Great Lakes low will foster widespread areas of 25-35 mph
   northwesterly surface flow with higher gusts in the afternoon -
   strongest in areas from west-central South Dakota southward to
   northwestern Kansas.  Both fuels and RH appear to be limiting
   factors for a higher fire weather threat - fuels only marginally
   support rapid fire spread and are most favorable in western
   Nebraska, while RH values will only fall below critical thresholds
   on a spotty basis.  An elevated delineation has been made for this
   forecast, and morning observations and fuels guidance will be used
   to determine whether an upgrade to critical and/or spatial
   adjustments to the ongoing elevated area need to be made.

   ...Lower Colorado River Valley...
   Northerly 15-25 mph low-level flow will develop during much of the
   day in response to a favorable pressure gradient in the across the
   region.  Meanwhile, insolation will aid in temperatures rising into
   the low 90s F along with very low RH values (around 7-10%). 
   Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will exist,
   especially where fuels are dry.

   ..Cook.. 10/23/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...

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