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    Day 2 FW Outlook >
Mar 28, 2017 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 28 15:16:03 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170328 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20170328 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 46,735 614,983 Odessa, TX...Yuma, AZ...Fortuna Foothills, AZ...Hobbs, NM...Carlsbad, NM...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 281512

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1012 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

   Valid 281700Z - 291200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLORADO
   RIVER VALLEY...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS
   AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...

   Complicated fire weather scenario will unfold later today as a deep
   cut off low traverses the Southern Rockies.  Latest thinking is that
   near-critical fire weather conditions will develop in highlighted
   areas of the higher terrain of southwest Texas northward into
   southeastern New Mexico as a dryline makes some progress eastward
   toward the Lubbock/Midland areas this afternoon.  Insolation is
   ongoing at this time (especially in southern portions of this area)
   and current thinking is that, despite approaching cloudiness
   associated with a lobe of ascent near the mid-level low, sufficient
   mixing should occur to foster critical fire weather conditions this
   afternoon.  West of this area (near El Paso and surrounding areas),
   RH values should generally remain high enough to preclude the need
   for critical highlights and the attendant delineation has been
   removed from these areas.

   Farther west, critical fire weather conditions remain likely amidst
   dry fuels in the immediate Lower Colorado River Valley region. 
   Additionally, the presence of substantial drying/subsidence on the
   west side of the upper low may foster more pronounced low-level
   warming/drying than currently indicated in parts of
   southern/southeastern Arizona.  Locally critical fire weather
   conditions may develop there for a couple of hours this afternoon as
   a result, although confidence in exceeding temporal critical
   thresholds (greater than 3 hours of critical conditions) remains a
   bit too low to introduce any upgrades with this outlook update.

   See the previous outlook below for more information.

   ..Cook.. 03/28/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0249 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong midlevel cyclone is forecast to track from the Southwest
   States to the southern High Plains. As this occurs, surface low
   pressure will deepen over the southern High Plains, while an
   attendant dryline sharpens. Strong tropospheric flow surrounding the
   cyclone will overlie the relatively deeper boundary layer and dry
   surface conditions west of the dryline.

   ...Portions of the Southwest States to the southern High Plains...
   Across the Critical area covering portions of southern NM and west
   TX, downslope trajectories extending off the southern Rockies and
   related warming/drying will allow RH to fall to 10-15 percent to the
   west of the dryline. Deep mixing into the strong tropospheric flow
   will support southwesterly to westerly winds of 20-25 mph with
   higher gusts.

   A separate Critical area is in effect for portions of the lower CO
   River Valley and vicinity in areas where dry fuels exist. A belt of
   northerly/north-northwesterly winds within the western semicircle of
   the cyclone will be enhanced via flow channeling in the low levels.
   As a result, wind speeds of 20-25 mph with higher gusts are
   expected. Deep subsidence over this part of the cyclone and related
   drying will be manifest at the surface as minimum RH in the upper
   single digits.

   An Elevated area is in effect for locations between/surrounding the
   Critical areas. Strong winds are anticipated from parts of southeast
   AZ into southwest NM, though comparatively cooler temperatures and
   higher RH should mitigate the overall fire-weather risk in these
   areas.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)
      
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Page last modified: March 28, 2017
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