Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Sat Jun 25 15:58:02 UTC 2016 (20160625 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20160625 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 251553

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1053 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

   VALID 251700Z - 261200Z


   ...PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS REMAINS ON TRACK. A BELT OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG
   THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS NERN MT IS NOW EVIDENT
   IN SFC OBS...WITH WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED WIND
   SPEEDS ACROSS ERN MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...COOLER AIR IS
   ALSO ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...WITH MARGINALLY LOW RH VALUES THIS
   AFTERNOON OVERLAPPING THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS...SUPPORTIVE FOR AN
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. POCKETS OF LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
   WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF ERN WY INTO NWRN SD...WHERE RH
   VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER DUE TO A DRIER ANTECEDENT AIR MASS
   AND WARMER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS ACROSS THE
   HIGH PLAINS.

   ...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CA...
   LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING THROUGH THE GRAPEVINE
   INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND
   IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE WINDS STRENGTHEN
   AROUND SUNSET FROM THE SANTA BARBARA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS INTO
   THE TEHACHAPI MTNS. WARM/DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE LOCALLY
   GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT.

   ..ROGERS.. 06/25/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0225 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
   ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA...ACCOMPANIED BY A BELT OF ENHANCED
   FLOW ALONG ITS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE SFC RESPONSE WILL
   FEATURE A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH
   HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. ELSEWHERE...BROAD MID-LEVEL
   RIDGING WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOWER
   MS VALLEY.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
   BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT AND ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE BREEZY/WINDY
   CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-30
   MPH WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MT AND THE WESTERN
   DAKOTAS...WITH WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH FARTHER SOUTH.
   MEANWHILE...DEEP MIXING AMIDST A DRY AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE RH VALUES
   FALLING TO AROUND 10-20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF WY AND 15-25 PERCENT
   FARTHER NORTH/EAST. MOST LOCATIONS DID NOT REALIZE SIGNIFICANT
   WETTING RAINFALL ON FRIDAY...AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL FURTHER DRY
   AVAILABLE FUELS. AS SUCH...ELEVATED/LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER
   CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED. MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONCERNS ARE NOT
   EXPECTED HOWEVER...AS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE DISPLACED
   FROM THE LOWEST RH VALUES. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE COULD BE WARRANTED
   IF CONFIDENCE IN A GREATER OVERLAP INCREASES.

   ...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN TERRAIN-FAVORED
   LOCATIONS...WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IN
   RESPONSE TO A NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN
   COMBINATION WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY...THESE WINDS /SUSTAINED
   AROUND 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS/ WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED
   FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
   THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES IN RESPONSE TO
   WEAKENING RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THEREFORE...A
   CRITICAL COMBINATION OF WINDS/RH VALUES IS NOT ANTICIPATED ON A
   SUFFICIENTLY WIDESPREAD BASIS...PRECLUDING AN UPGRADE AT THIS TIME.
   NONETHELESS...NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT
   AGAIN THIS EVENING AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SANTA
   BARBARA...KERN...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. AS
   SUCH...ELEVATED/LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
   TONIGHT.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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