Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Sun Mar 29 16:43:02 UTC 2015 (20150329 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20150329 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 37,255 319,732 Dodge City, KS...Liberal, KS...Pampa, TX...Borger, TX...Woodward, OK...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 291642

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1142 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

   VALID 291700Z - 301200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SWRN KS...THE TX/OK
   PANHANDLES...AND WRN OK...

   16Z SFC OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SWRN KS INDICATE TEMPERATURES HAVE
   WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO 20-25
   PERCENT. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SWD THIS MORNING ACROSS SWRN
   KS...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND WRN OK...WITH STRONG NLY WINDS
   GENERALLY BETWEEN 20-30 MPH OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT. EVEN WITH
   LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED
   TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING
   SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
   SATELLITE. THIS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
   UPPER 60S ACROSS SWRN KS TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FOR THE ERN TX
   PANHANDLE AND SWRN OK...WHILE RH VALUES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. 

   WITH LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SWRN KS WARMING SLIGHTLY FASTER
   THAN EVEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WARMING/DRYING MODEL AVAILABLE...
   THE 15Z RAP...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN 3-4 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN
   KS...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND WRN OK. THEREFORE...A CRITICAL AREA
   HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THIS REGION WITH THIS UPDATE. THE ELEVATED
   AREA WAS ALSO EXPANDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER EWD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF CNTRL
   KS AND N-CNTRL OK. THE EXPECTED COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS WITH
   LOWERED RH ACROSS MUCH OF NEB...SD...WRN IA...AND NRN KS REMAINS TOO
   MARGINAL TO ADD A CRITICAL AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..GLEASON.. 03/29/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0318 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   06Z SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS -- ONE
   OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND THE OTHER OVER CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN -- MOVING
   SEWD. AS THESE SHORTWAVES CONTINUE SEWD...ENHANCED NWLY FLOW ALOFT
   WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.
   CONTINUED SEWD PROGRESS OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
   BROAD TROUGHING FROM CNTRL ONTARIO SWD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY
   00Z/MON. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH ONTARIO WITH
   AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THOUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MS
   VALLEY BY 00Z/MON. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
   BUILD IN ACROSS THE PLAINS. FARTHER E...HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY
   CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT SEWD...MOVING OFF
   THE CAROLINA COAST BY 06Z/MON. 

   ...PLAINS...
   A LARGE AREA OF AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
   ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PLAINS AS GUSTY NLY WINDS OCCUR AMIDST A
   DRY...POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
   DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
   SEWD/EWD...RESULTING AT LEAST SOME DISSOCIATION BETWEEN THE
   STRONGEST WINDS AND THE LOW RH VALUES/WARMEST
   TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
   HOWEVER...WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH -- I.E. FROM
   AROUND 25 MPH AT 18Z TO CLOSER TO 20 MPH BY 21Z -- TO WARRANT FIRE
   WEATHER CONCERNS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES
   DROP INTO THE MID 20S /CNTRL PLAINS/ AND UPPER TEENS /SRN HIGH
   PLAINS/. MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT
   WITHIN THIS REGION -- SRN/CNTRL PLAINS -- IS WRN OK BUT EXPECTED
   DURATION OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS CURRENTLY TOO SHORT TO MERIT A
   CRITICAL DELINEATION. 

   FOR AREAS FARTHER N /MID MO VALLEY/...SUSTAINED WINDS ARE STILL
   EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
   THE TREND WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY A COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER
   MIXING AND INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...SUSTAINED WINDS
   WILL LIKELY STILL BE ABOVE 20 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AT 21Z. NAM
   GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF MIXING
   AND RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BOTH THE GFS AND RAP
   SUGGESTING DEWPOINT VALUES AROUND 8 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER. THE DRIER
   SOLUTION IS PREFERRED WITH RH VALUES LIKELY AROUND 20-25 PERCENT AT
   18Z AND CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT BY 21Z. THESE RH VALUES COUPLED WITH
   THE GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS. LIKE AREAS FARTHER S...THE FACTOR PRECLUDING
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS THE SHORT DURATION OF WINDS GREATER THAN 20
   MPH AMIDST RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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