Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Tue Sep 19 15:58:02 UTC 2017 (20170919 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20170919 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 69,747 1,232,272 Colorado Springs, CO...Pueblo, CO...Parker, CO...Castle Rock, CO...Garden City, KS...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   FNUS21 KWNS 191556

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1056 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

   Valid 191700Z - 201200Z


   No changes are made to the ongoing forecast. Critical conditions are
   still expected across parts of the central High Plains and also
   northwest New Mexico. Elsewhere, while a critical combination of
   wind/low RH will occur in spots, marginal fuels will preclude a
   higher fire-weather threat.

   ..Picca.. 09/19/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/

   One strong mid/upper-level trough will move from the northern
   Rockies into the northern High Plains today, while another trough
   moves into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a cyclone and
   attendant trough will move eastward across the Plains. Dry and windy
   conditions will overspread much of the Southwest into the southern
   High Plains, resulting in a broad area of elevated to potentially
   critical conditions. 

   ...Four Corners Region into the Southern/Central High Plains...
   As low/midlevel flow increases in response to the upper trough and
   associated surface low, relatively strong low-level southwesterly
   flow is expected to develop from the Southwest into the High Plains.
   As sustained winds increase into the 20-30 mph range this afternoon,
   substantial drying/mixing will result in the development of
   potentially critical RH values from northeast AZ eastward into
   western KS. 

   While this pattern would typically result in a widespread critical
   fire weather threat from the Southwest into the southern/central
   Plains, generally marginal fuel conditions should mitigate the
   potential for a more substantial threat in many locations. Two
   critical areas have been delineated in this outlook. The first
   critical area covers portions of eastern CO, western KS, and far
   southwest NE where recent rainfall has been somewhat less than
   surrounding areas, and also where there is high confidence in
   several hours of critical wind/RH. A second critical area has been
   included across portions of northwest NM, where recent fuel guidance
   suggests the presence of somewhat drier fuels. 

   Surrounding the critical areas, much of the Four Corners region
   eastward into northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles will also see
   critical wind/RH, but no upgrade has been made in these areas due to
   generally marginal fuel conditions. Locally critical conditions may
   also develop further north into portions of southeast WY, the NE
   Panhandle, and perhaps southwest SD, though considerable uncertainty
   remains in these areas with regard to timing of the cold front and
   the duration of any critical wind/RH conditions.

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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