Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Fri Nov 17 16:53:02 UTC 2017 ( | )
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 171652 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Southern High Plains... Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are still anticipated for a few hours this afternoon as increasing mid-level flow coupled with deep boundary layer mixing and a strengthening surface pressure gradient combine to support sustained winds from 20 to 30 mph. High temperatures across the region will range from the mid 70s to upper 80s (15 to 25 degree above-average), supporting afternoon RH values in from the low teens to mid 20s. Highest confidence in critical conditions remains from east-central NM northeastward into the central TX Panhandle. Near-critical conditions are anticipated farther south/southwest into southern NM with slightly weaker winds (sustained around 15 to 20 mph) precluding critical meteorological conditions. As mentioned in the previous discussion, fuels do not appear particularly receptive but given the strength of the winds and the anomalously warm temperatures, a widespread elevated to locally critical fire weather threat still exists. ..Mountains and Foothills of Southern CA... Current onshore gradient is expected shift offshore tonight as a front moves through the Great Basin and high surface pressure follows in its wake. Guidance indicates that the LAX-DAG and LAX-TPH gradients will be around -6 mb and -10 mb, respectively, by 12Z Saturday. Gradients of this strength will likely support wind gusts from 35-40 mph. RH values are expected to remain above critical thresholds across most of the region but some locally elevated fire weather conditions are still anticipated for a few hours early Saturday morning. ..Mosier.. 11/17/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/ ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level flow will develop across the southern Plains on Friday as a mid-level trough quickly moves east into the central United States. This strong mid-level flow will result in downslope warming/drying across the southern Plains. Here, widespread temperatures in the mid-70s to mid-80s will combine with poor low-level moisture to result in minimum afternoon relative-humidity values falling into the teens in some locations. These warm/dry conditions will combine with surface-wind speeds gusting into the 20-30 mph range to support elevated-to-critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely area for critical conditions will be from east-central New Mexico into the central Texas Panhandle, where surface winds around 30 mph sustained in the presence of mid-teen relative humidity. One potential mitigating factor is that ERCs are generally near or below the 50th percentile across the region, which may preclude a more widespread, larger-scale fire-weather threat. Late in the period (Saturday morning), north/north-east winds will develop across coastal areas of southern California. These weak Santa Ana winds may gust near 40-45 mph in wind favored areas. These strong winds will help dry out finer fuels. However, even with the drying, relative humidity looks to remain high enough to preclude elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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