Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Tue Sep 19 15:58:02 UTC 2017 ( | )
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 191556 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are made to the ongoing forecast. Critical conditions are still expected across parts of the central High Plains and also northwest New Mexico. Elsewhere, while a critical combination of wind/low RH will occur in spots, marginal fuels will preclude a higher fire-weather threat. ..Picca.. 09/19/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/ ...Synopsis... One strong mid/upper-level trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains today, while another trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a cyclone and attendant trough will move eastward across the Plains. Dry and windy conditions will overspread much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains, resulting in a broad area of elevated to potentially critical conditions. ...Four Corners Region into the Southern/Central High Plains... As low/midlevel flow increases in response to the upper trough and associated surface low, relatively strong low-level southwesterly flow is expected to develop from the Southwest into the High Plains. As sustained winds increase into the 20-30 mph range this afternoon, substantial drying/mixing will result in the development of potentially critical RH values from northeast AZ eastward into western KS. While this pattern would typically result in a widespread critical fire weather threat from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains, generally marginal fuel conditions should mitigate the potential for a more substantial threat in many locations. Two critical areas have been delineated in this outlook. The first critical area covers portions of eastern CO, western KS, and far southwest NE where recent rainfall has been somewhat less than surrounding areas, and also where there is high confidence in several hours of critical wind/RH. A second critical area has been included across portions of northwest NM, where recent fuel guidance suggests the presence of somewhat drier fuels. Surrounding the critical areas, much of the Four Corners region eastward into northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles will also see critical wind/RH, but no upgrade has been made in these areas due to generally marginal fuel conditions. Locally critical conditions may also develop further north into portions of southeast WY, the NE Panhandle, and perhaps southwest SD, though considerable uncertainty remains in these areas with regard to timing of the cold front and the duration of any critical wind/RH conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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