Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Sun Feb 26 16:12:03 UTC 2017 ( | )
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 261607 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.... ...Portions of southern/eastern New Mexico and west Texas... Conditions described in the previous forecast (discussion appended below) remain valid, with no changes needed to the ongoing outlook areas. As such, a large area of elevated fire weather conditions is still anticipated across the region this afternoon, with a smaller area of critical conditions across south-central NM and the adjacent areas of the TX Trans-Pecos. Sustained westerly winds from 20-30 mph amidst minimum RH values in the teens are expected within the critical area. ...Southeast States and Carolinas... A very dry airmass is in place across the region, as evidenced by regional 12Z soundings, which all sampled PW values less than 0.20 inches (near-record low PW values based on SPC sounding climatology). This very dry airmass will support afternoon RH values from the mid teens to mid 20s. Winds will be light, mitigating the overall fire weather threat, but some locally elevated conditions are possible, particularly in areas where fuels are very dry. ..Mosier.. 02/26/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid/upper-level cyclonic flow will persist across much of the contiguous US today, with a channel of enhanced westerlies from the Desert Southwest to the Mid-Atlantic. Embedded within this flow, a jet maximum will progress from the southern California coast to the southern high Plains during the day. Strengthening westerly flow will promote weak lee troughing from the Big Bend northward to the plains of eastern Colorado. Meanwhile, ridging will shift offshore the southeast US. ...Portions of southern/eastern New Mexico and west Texas... Some modest enhancement of the surface pressure gradient, combined with strengthening flow aloft, will lead to another day of breezy conditions across parts of the region. Sustained southwesterly winds around 20-30 mph, with higher gusts, are expected across the upper Trans-Pecos. Surrounding this area, winds around 15-20 mph will be common. Downslope warming/drying and deep mixing within an antecedent dry air mass will yield RH values around 10-15 percent by afternoon across most of the region. As such, critical fire-weather concerns are anticipated near parts of the upper Trans-Pecos, with elevated concerns extending from the Big Bend northward to the southwest Texas Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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