Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Tue Jun 30 16:24:03 UTC 2015 (20150630 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20150630 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 301620

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

   VALID 301700Z - 011200Z

   ...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN MT...
   PRIMARILY WET TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
   LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD INTO NE MT
   /FAR ERN MT/. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FAST STORM MOTION EXPECTED /CLOUD
   LAYER MEAN WINDS AROUND 35 KT/...ISOLATED AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE
   LIGHTNING WITH LITTLE PRECIP WITH A RESULTING RISK OF
   LIGHTNING-INDUCED FIRE STARTS. PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE IS TOO LOW
   TO DELINEATE A DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREA.

   FARTHER W /CNTRL AND ERN MT/...GUSTY NWLY WINDS ARE STILL
   ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND WARM
   TEMPERATURES HELPING TO PUSH RH VALUES INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW
   20S. ISOLATED CRITICAL RH VALUES /BELOW 15 PERCENT/ ARE POSSIBLE
   WHERE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS ARE MAXIMIZED. THESE DRY CONDITIONS AMIDST
   GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS FORECAST COVERED THIS THREAT WELL WITH NO MAJOR
   CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ELEVATED AREA. 

   ...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NV...EXTREME SE ORE...FAR SW ID...
   EXPANDED THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDER AREA A BIT NWWD IN EXTREME SE ORE
   AND FAR SW ID BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE BUT THE OVERALL FORECAST
   REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED. SEE PREVIOUS
   DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

   ..MOSIER.. 06/30/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING OVER SRN
   ALBERTA...AND IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS E/SEWD INTO THE DAKOTAS LATER
   TODAY AS IT CRESTS A STOUT MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
   GREAT BASIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS MT...WHILE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP
   IN ITS WAKE AS A LEE SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
   MEANWHILE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE
   SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME POTENTIALLY DRY OVER PARTS OF
   NV.

   ...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN MT...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SWRN CANADA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
   NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS EARLY TUE MORNING...WITH ACCOMPANYING POTENTIAL
   FOR ISOLATED TSTMS PERSISTING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING ACROSS
   CNTRL/ERN MT. WITH PW VALUES OBSERVED NEAR/ABOVE ONE INCH IN
   REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS...THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY BE WET...BUT
   PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SPOTTY. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING
   IGNITIONS MAY EXIST OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION CORES. 

   BY EARLY AFTERNOON...NWLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-25
   MPH AMIDST STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE
   GRADIENT TO THE W OF A LEE SFC LOW. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
   APPROACH THE LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
   WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH. DESPITE
   THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WITHIN THE BROAD
   LOW-LEVEL NWLY REGIME...BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
   REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO PRECLUDE CRITICAL RH THRESHOLDS /15
   PERCENT/ FROM BEING REACHED...WITH FORECAST MIN RH VALUES IN THE
   UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S GENERALLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPERIENCED AMIDST LOWER RH VALUES.
   REGARDLESS...AN ELEVATED WIND-DRIVEN FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL
   EXIST...AND COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR ANY LIGHTNING
   IGNITIONS THAT OCCUR EARLY TUE MORNING.

   ...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NV...
   ISOLATED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER AREA RANGES DURING PEAK HEATING.
   LATEST OBSERVATIONS/MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ON THE MARGINS FOR A FAVORABLE DRY
   TSTM THREAT...WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75-1 INCH.
   HOWEVER...15-20 KT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW...COMBINED WITH THE LIKELY
   DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP/WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER...SHOULD LEAD TO
   GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. A THREAT FOR LIGHTNING
   IGNITIONS MAY ALSO EXIST AWAY FROM THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION CORES.
   GIVEN THE ENHANCED EVAPORATIVE POTENTIAL WITHIN THE INVERTED-V
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO
   POSSIBLE.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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