Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Mon Mar 27 15:39:03 UTC 2017 (20170327 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20170327 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 271535

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1035 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

   Valid 271700Z - 281200Z

   Ongoing forecast is on track with no changes needed. 
   Locally/briefly critical fire weather conditions may develop in
   southwestern New Mexico and southeastern Arizona after 21Z as
   westerly surface flow approaches 20 mph in these regions.  See the
   previous discussion below for more details.

   ..Cook.. 03/27/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0253 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong mid-level trough will dig southeast from the west coast to
   the southwest of the United States. Accompanying this trough/low
   will be a strong mid-level jet. As the trough approaches the
   southwest United States, the trough should evolve toward a closed
   low.  At the surface, a weak pressure gradient across the southwest
   at the start of the period will strengthen toward the end of the
   period in response to cyclogenesis across far southeast New Mexico.

   ...Far southeast Arizona, southeast half of New Mexico, and far west
   Texas...
   Clear skies and a dry airmass will combine to allow for temperatures
   to warm into the upper 60s to upper 70s Fahrenheit with relative
   humidity falling into the 10-20% range. Although surface winds will
   generally be around or less than 15 mph, the dry airmass in place
   and modest surface winds will support widespread elevated
   fire-weather conditions.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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