Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Wed Oct 18 15:59:02 UTC 2017 ( | )
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 181558 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z No substantial changes have been made to the elevated areas across parts of southeastern WY and ND/northwestern MN/far eastern MT. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Gleason.. 10/18/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/ ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal flow pattern will remain over much of the CONUS today, with a mid-level trough moving eastward over central Canada. Strong mid-level flow will reside near the base of the trough over the Northern Plains. Meanwhile, an associated surface low is forecast to shift eastward from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with a trailing cold front moving from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. Amplification of a large scale mid/upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest is expected later tonight. ...North Dakota, Northwest Minnesota, and far eastern Montana... The ongoing Elevated fire weather area has been maintained, with a slight westward expansion into eastern Montana. Across the Elevated area, strong post-frontal northwesterly winds around 15-30 mph (with higher gusts) are forecast to occur in concert with afternoon minimum RH values around 20-25% (locally lower). These meteorological conditions are expected to overlap with an area of increasingly receptive fuels, as fine fuels have dried out with the lack of meaningful precipitation the past few weeks (AHPS suggests less than a quarter of an inch over most of the area the past 14 days). While near/locally critical conditions may occur, it currently appears that the strongest winds (generally near the Canadian border) will not align well with the lowest minimum RH values (generally across the southern half of ND) on more than a brief/spotty basis. If trends in guidance suggest more warming/drying than is currently expected, then a Critical area could be needed across portions of the area in a future update. ...Southeast Wyoming... Despite the stronger mid-level flow shifting northward away from the area today, lingering downslope breeziness is expected to remain around long enough into the afternoon to overlap with reduced RH values. An Elevated area was introduced across portions of southeast WY for locations where sustained westerly winds around 15-20 mph are forecast to occur -- for at least a few hours during afternoon -- with RH values at or below 15%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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