Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Mon Mar 19 06:32:03 UTC 2018 ( | )
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 190630 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST...CENTRAL...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough over the southern/central High Plains early this morning will move eastward to the TN Valley by this evening. 40-50 kt mid-level westerly winds will remain over much of the southern High Plains today, and a low-amplitude shortwave trough with slightly stronger mid-level winds will move over this region this afternoon. At the surface, a low across southwestern KS and the OK Panhandle early this morning will develop quickly eastward into KY/TN by this evening, with a trailing cold front sweeping southeastward off the TX Coast and over the Gulf of Mexico later this morning. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains into Deep South TX... Strong/gusty post-frontal northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph will occur today across portions of the southern High Plains into deep south TX. The most likely area for a critical combination of winds around 20-25 mph and RH values of 15-25% to develop will be from southeastern NM into parts of west, central, and south TX. Here, dry to very dry fuels are generally present owing to a lack of recent meaningful precipitation, which should help support large fire spread. Due to an enhanced surface pressure gradient and a well-mixed boundary layer behind the cold front, critical conditions may be ongoing at the start of the period across part of west-central TX, where sustained winds of 20-25 mph should overlap lowered RH values of 15-20%. Elevated conditions will occur for a greater portion of the southern Plains into deep south TX surrounding the critical area, but slightly lower forecast wind speeds and/or marginally reduced RH values preclude an even larger critical delineation at this time. ..Gleason.. 03/19/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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