Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Tue Feb 9 16:39:03 UTC 2016 (20160209 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20160209 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 091634

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1034 AM CST TUE FEB 09 2016

   VALID 091700Z - 101200Z

   ...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   RECENT OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A LAX-TPH GRADIENT OF -13 MB AND A
   LAX-DAG GRADIENT OF -6 MB WITH SEVERAL SITES ACROSS THE REGION
   REPORTING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.
   GUSTY WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO STAY CONFINED TO THE FAVORED
   CANYONS AND PASSES. RECORD-BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
   THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO UPPER 80S /15 TO 20
   DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE/. ISOLATED AREAS MAY REACH 90 DEGREES.
   WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME AREAS
   FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
   AMIDST OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT. LACK OF STRONGER WINDS AND SMALL SPATIAL EXTENT OF
   THE GUSTY WINDS WILL TEMPER THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT AND
   PRECLUDE CRITICAL CONDITIONS. 

   ...MUCH OF TX...
   TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH
   OF THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING MIN RH VALUES FROM
   15-20 PERCENT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND S TX TO CLOSER TO 25
   PERCENT ACROSS THE CNTR/ERN TX AND THE MIDDLE/ERN TX COAST. THESE
   WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AMIDST SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS
   AROUND 10-15 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW RH VALUES
   ANTICIPATED...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX AND THE MIDDLE/ERN TX COAST. ONLY FACTOR
   PRECLUDING CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS IS THE LACK OF
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 MPH.

   ..MOSIER.. 02/09/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST TUE FEB 09 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PERSISTENT WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
   PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY...WITH SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE
   ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST LATE.  AT THE SURFACE...BROADLY
   CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AROUND A WEAK LOW IN THE
   NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

   ...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
   REGION DUE TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. 
   HOWEVER...THIS GRADIENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS
   DAYS...SUGGESTING WEAKER WINDS AREAWIDE AND A LOWER ATTENDANT FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT.  NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED DRYING OF FUELS OVER
   SEVERAL PREVIOUS DAYS OF WARM/DRY CONDITIONS...ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES AND LOCALIZED GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH /ESPECIALLY IN
   TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS/ SUGGEST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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