Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Sat Aug 1 15:42:02 UTC 2015 (20150801 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20150801 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 011537

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1037 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015

   VALID 011700Z - 021200Z

   NO CHANGES NEEDED. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
   DETAILS.

   ..LEITMAN.. 08/01/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0335 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN TODAY FEATURES A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE
   ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD TOWARD THE
   NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.  AT THE SURFACE...CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
   SOUTHERN CASCADES...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND
   NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY.  REGARDING FIRE
   WEATHER CONCERNS...ELEVATED CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
   OF NORTHERN/EASTERN MONTANA WHILE PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
   CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWESTERN OREGON WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

   ...NRN/ERN MONTANA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WRN ND/NWRN SD...
   THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF ENHANCED
   MID/LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WNWLY FLOW.  VERTICAL MIXING IN COMBINATION
   WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH
   DAKOTA SHOULD AID IN SUSTAINED AFTERNOON WNWLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND
   15 MPH /APPROACHING 20 MPH IN NERN MT/.  WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS
   ENHANCING THE VERTICAL MIXING...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 10-15 PERCENT
   OVER THE REGION...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

   ...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON...
   DIURNAL HEATING WILL LEAD TO TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS AND LIKELY
   RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER FAVORED LOCATIONS
   DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
   INVERTED-V PROFILES DURING THE AFTERNOON /ESPECIALLY ACROSS
   SOUTHWESTERN OREGON/...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS.  THE LACK OF A LARGE-SCALE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT AND EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOTIONS /LESS THAN 20 MPH/ WILL
   LIKELY PRECLUDE A MORE APPRECIABLE/WIDESPREAD DRY THUNDERSTORM
   EVENT.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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