Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Sun Feb 26 16:12:03 UTC 2017 (20170226 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20170226 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 18,164 869,687 Las Cruces, NM...Socorro, TX...Sunland Park, NM...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   FNUS21 KWNS 261607

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1007 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

   Valid 261700Z - 271200Z


   ...Portions of southern/eastern New Mexico and west Texas...
   Conditions described in the previous forecast (discussion appended
   below) remain valid, with no changes needed to the ongoing outlook
   areas. As such, a large area of elevated fire weather conditions is
   still anticipated across the region this afternoon, with a smaller
   area of critical conditions across south-central NM and the adjacent
   areas of the TX Trans-Pecos. Sustained westerly winds from 20-30 mph
   amidst minimum RH values in the teens are expected within the
   critical area.

   ...Southeast States and Carolinas...
   A very dry airmass is in place across the region, as evidenced by
   regional 12Z soundings, which all sampled PW values less than 0.20
   inches (near-record low PW values based on SPC sounding
   climatology). This very dry airmass will support afternoon RH values
   from the mid teens to mid 20s. Winds will be light, mitigating the
   overall fire weather threat, but some locally elevated conditions
   are possible, particularly in areas where fuels are very dry.

   ..Mosier.. 02/26/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/

   Broad mid/upper-level cyclonic flow will persist across much of the
   contiguous US today, with a channel of enhanced westerlies from the
   Desert Southwest to the Mid-Atlantic. Embedded within this flow, a
   jet maximum will progress from the southern California coast to the
   southern high Plains during the day. Strengthening westerly flow
   will promote weak lee troughing from the Big Bend northward to the
   plains of eastern Colorado. Meanwhile, ridging will shift offshore
   the southeast US.

   ...Portions of southern/eastern New Mexico and west Texas...
   Some modest enhancement of the surface pressure gradient, combined
   with strengthening flow aloft, will lead to another day of breezy
   conditions across parts of the region. Sustained southwesterly winds
   around 20-30 mph, with higher gusts, are expected across the upper
   Trans-Pecos. Surrounding this area, winds around 15-20 mph will be
   common. Downslope warming/drying and deep mixing within an
   antecedent dry air mass will yield RH values around 10-15 percent by
   afternoon across most of the region. As such, critical fire-weather
   concerns are anticipated near parts of the upper Trans-Pecos, with
   elevated concerns extending from the Big Bend northward to the
   southwest Texas Panhandle.

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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