Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Mon Mar 19 06:32:03 UTC 2018 (20180319 1200Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20180319 1200Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 100,408 2,122,625 Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...San Angelo, TX...Roswell, NM...Del Rio, TX...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   FNUS21 KWNS 190630

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0130 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z


   A compact shortwave trough over the southern/central High Plains
   early this morning will move eastward to the TN Valley by this
   evening. 40-50 kt mid-level westerly winds will remain over much of
   the southern High Plains today, and a low-amplitude shortwave trough
   with slightly stronger mid-level winds will move over this region
   this afternoon. At the surface, a low across southwestern KS and the
   OK Panhandle early this morning will develop quickly eastward into
   KY/TN by this evening, with a trailing cold front sweeping
   southeastward off the TX Coast and over the Gulf of Mexico later
   this morning.

   ...Portions of the Southern High Plains into Deep South TX...
   Strong/gusty post-frontal northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph will
   occur today across portions of the southern High Plains into deep
   south TX. The most likely area for a critical combination of winds
   around 20-25 mph and RH values of 15-25% to develop will be from
   southeastern NM into parts of west, central, and south TX. Here, dry
   to very dry fuels are generally present owing to a lack of recent
   meaningful precipitation, which should help support large fire
   spread. Due to an enhanced surface pressure gradient and a
   well-mixed boundary layer behind the cold front, critical conditions
   may be ongoing at the start of the period across part of
   west-central TX, where sustained winds of 20-25 mph should overlap
   lowered RH values of 15-20%. Elevated conditions will occur for a
   greater portion of the southern Plains into deep south TX
   surrounding the critical area, but slightly lower forecast wind
   speeds and/or marginally reduced RH values preclude an even larger
   critical delineation at this time.

   ..Gleason.. 03/19/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home