Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Mon Jul 24 08:17:03 UTC 2017 (20170724 1200Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20170724 1200Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Dry Tstm 57,277 247,247 Bozeman, MT...Butte, MT...Altamont, OR...Klamath Falls, OR...Belgrade, MT...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 240814

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0314 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
   OR...NORTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST ID...FAR NORTHERN NV...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
   EASTERN ID INTO SOUTHWEST MT...

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper trough off of the northern California coast is expected to
   remain nearly stationary or drift slowly eastward today, while a
   stronger upper trough and associated surface low/cold front move
   eastward across the southern Canadian Prairies and northern High
   Plains. 

   ...OR/Northern CA northeast into MT - Dry Thunderstorm Threat...
   Scattered thunderstorms are expected across a broad zone from
   Oregon/northern CA northeast into portions of MT, as the slow-moving
   upper trough gradually moves inland and smaller-scale features ahead
   of the primary trough move from the Great Basin into the northern
   Rockies. Thermodynamic profiles will favor a mix of wet and dry
   thunderstorms, though with coverage expected to be relatively high
   in an area where fuels are quite dry, this activity is expected to
   pose a substantial fire weather threat. 

   Two critical areas were delineated - one across southern OR/northern
   CA/southwest ID, in closer proximity to the primary upper trough,
   and also from eastern ID into southwest MT, where a smaller-scale
   embedded trough and terrain-enhanced circulations may favor the
   development of a forward-propagating thunderstorm cluster this
   afternoon/evening. An isolated dry-thunderstorm threat will extend
   potentially as far east as eastern MT, depending on the timing of
   convection moving in from the southwest. Strong and erratic outflow
   winds may accompany any of the thunderstorm activity across the
   region, especially across portions of southwest into central MT. 

   ...Portions of Montana into the western Dakotas - Elevated Wind/RH
   Threat...
   Somewhat cooler temperatures are expected across portions of MT and
   eastern ID into the western Dakotas compared to Sunday. However, dry
   westerly/northwesterly post-frontal flow will allow for low RH
   (potentially down to critical levels) to develop during the
   afternoon. In conjunction with these low RH values, anticipated
   sustained wind speeds of 15-20 mph (with locally higher gusts) will
   result in the potential for elevated to locally critical conditions.
   Confidence in the development of critical wind speeds remains too
   low for a critical upgrade (for wind/RH concerns) at this time.
   However, erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will also be possible
   across primarily southern portions of the elevated area (see section
   above for discussion of thunderstorm potential) during the late
   afternoon and evening.

   ..Dean.. 07/24/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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