Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Sun Jan 21 16:35:02 UTC 2018 (20180121 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20180121 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 126,763 2,010,954 Lubbock, TX...Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Midland, TX...Lawton, OK...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   FNUS21 KWNS 211633

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1033 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

   Valid 211700Z - 221200Z


   The ongoing forecast is on track with minimal changes needed.  At
   16Z, a cold front was located from near P28 (in south-central
   Kansas) southwestward to near BGD (in the northern Texas Panhandle).
   Confidence is a bit lower in elevated conditions developing north of
   this front - and the elevated fire weather area has been shifted
   southward by a few miles to address this scenario.

   Furthermore, 16Z obs in southeastern New Mexico were already nearing
   critical thresholds with near full sunshine and several hours of
   surface heating expected this afternoon.  Expanded the critical area
   into more of southeastern New Mexico to account for latest
   observational trends.

   Elsewhere, the conditions will support dangerous fire weather by
   mid-afternoon with strong, gusty westerly winds across the region
   behind an eastward-moving dryline and surface trough.  For these
   reasons, the remainder of the elevated and critical area remain
   unchanged.  See the previous discussion below for more detail.

   ..Cook.. 01/21/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018/

   ...Southern Plains Vicinity...

   A deepening upper low and attendant trough will track eastward
   across the southern and central Rockies into the Plains. Strong
   height falls and an intense southwesterly midlevel jet streak will
   overspread the Plains by late morning to early afternoon. This will
   result in the development of a lee cyclone in the vicinity of
   southeast CO/southwest KS, which will shift east along the OK/KS
   border through the late afternoon. Surface temperatures will be
   cooler across eastern NM into parts of western TX compared to
   previous days, but above normal temperatures are expected across
   eastern portions of the TX Panhandle into central TX and western OK.
   As temperatures warm, deep boundary-layer mixing will occur and RH
   values will fall into the 10-20 percent range from southwest TX/far
   southeast NM into western OK. Critical fire weather conditions are
   expected in this swath as very strong west/southwest surface winds
   develop. Sustained wind speeds of 25-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph are
   possible. These strong winds will encompass a larger area of the
   southern High Plains from eastern NM all the way into central OK and

   Surrounding the critical area, RH values will be more marginal and
   the duration of any critical conditions, should they develop, will
   be brief. By late afternoon, a cold front will begin to drop
   southeast across the OK/TX Panhandles and northwest OK and winds
   will shift to the northwest into the overnight hours. Winds will
   remain gusty overnight for much of the region but RH values will
   rebound into the 40-80 percent range.

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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