Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Wed Sep 17 15:22:03 UTC 2014 (20140917 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20140917 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 11,240 37,743 Susanville, CA...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 171520

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1020 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

   VALID 171700Z - 181200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NERN CA...FAR NWRN
   NV...AND S-CNTRL ORE...

   ...NERN CA...NWRN NV...AND S-CNTRL/SERN ORE...
   A SLIGHT NWD EXPANSION OF THE CRITICAL RISK AREA WAS MADE INTO PARTS
   OF S-CNTRL ORE...WHERE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE LIKELY
   TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS
   CONSISTENT IN SHOWING INCREASING WIND SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN
   RESPONSE TO SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND
   INCREASING LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
   TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO HEAT INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S F
   /DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF SCATTERED CLOUD COVER/...YIELDING
   MARGINALLY CRITICAL RH VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT. MODEST LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTENING SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...AND RESULT IN BETTER RH RECOVERY
   COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

   ..ROGERS.. 09/17/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0242 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST BY THE END OF
   THE PERIOD.  THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE
   CNTRL PLAINS WHILE A TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST.  

   THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE MOVING INTO EXTREME SRN AZ WILL
   SPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST.

   ...NERN CA...NWRN NV AND S-CNTRL/SERN OREGON...
   WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS OVER
   THE CRITICAL AND SURROUNDING ELEVATED AREA WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE
   HUMIDITY DROPS TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT.  HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
   80S.  

   THE CRITICAL AREA WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THE LONGEST
   PERIOD OF TIME WITH SWLY WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. 
   ELSEWHERE IN THE ELEVATED AREA...SWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
   SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED.  FUELS ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA
   ARE EXTREMELY DRY.  EVEN ACROSS THE ELEVATED AREA...FUELS ARE MOSTLY
   DRY TO VERY DRY.  

   BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO
   NWRN CA AND WRN OREGON/WA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. 
   MOSTLY WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED.

   SCATTERED MAINLY WET THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SRN CA WILL
   BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE AREA SHIFTS EWD.  

   A FEW MIXED WET/DRY STORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL NV THIS
   AFTERNOON...NWD INTO ID AND WRN MT.  ALTHOUGH FUELS ARE A MIX OF
   MOIST TO DRY...THE AIR MASS IS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH
   PRECIPITABLE WATER AOB 0.70 INCH.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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