Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Wed Oct 18 15:59:02 UTC 2017 (20171018 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20171018 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 181558

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1058 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

   Valid 181700Z - 191200Z

   No substantial changes have been made to the elevated areas across
   parts of southeastern WY and ND/northwestern MN/far eastern MT. See
   the previous discussion below for more information.

   ..Gleason.. 10/18/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   A quasi-zonal flow pattern will remain over much of the CONUS today,
   with a mid-level trough moving eastward over central Canada. Strong
   mid-level flow will reside near the base of the trough over the
   Northern Plains. Meanwhile, an associated surface low is forecast to
   shift eastward from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with a trailing cold
   front moving from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region.
   Amplification of a large scale mid/upper-level trough over the
   Pacific Northwest is expected later tonight.

   ...North Dakota, Northwest Minnesota, and far eastern Montana...
   The ongoing Elevated fire weather area has been maintained, with a
   slight westward expansion into eastern Montana. Across the Elevated
   area, strong post-frontal northwesterly winds around 15-30 mph (with
   higher gusts) are forecast to occur in concert with afternoon
   minimum RH values around 20-25% (locally lower). These
   meteorological conditions are expected to overlap with an area of
   increasingly receptive fuels, as fine fuels have dried out with the
   lack of meaningful precipitation the past few weeks (AHPS suggests
   less than a quarter of an inch over most of the area the past 14
   days). 

   While near/locally critical conditions may occur, it currently
   appears that the strongest winds (generally near the Canadian
   border) will not align well with the lowest minimum RH values
   (generally across the southern half of ND) on more than a
   brief/spotty basis. If trends in guidance suggest more
   warming/drying than is currently expected, then a Critical area
   could be needed across portions of the area in a future update.

   ...Southeast Wyoming...
   Despite the stronger mid-level flow shifting northward away from the
   area today, lingering downslope breeziness is expected to remain
   around long enough into the afternoon to overlap with reduced RH
   values. An Elevated area was introduced across portions of southeast
   WY for locations where sustained westerly winds around 15-20 mph are
   forecast to occur -- for at least a few hours during afternoon --
   with RH values at or below 15%.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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