Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Sun Jan 21 16:35:02 UTC 2018 ( | )
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 211633 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... The ongoing forecast is on track with minimal changes needed. At 16Z, a cold front was located from near P28 (in south-central Kansas) southwestward to near BGD (in the northern Texas Panhandle). Confidence is a bit lower in elevated conditions developing north of this front - and the elevated fire weather area has been shifted southward by a few miles to address this scenario. Furthermore, 16Z obs in southeastern New Mexico were already nearing critical thresholds with near full sunshine and several hours of surface heating expected this afternoon. Expanded the critical area into more of southeastern New Mexico to account for latest observational trends. Elsewhere, the conditions will support dangerous fire weather by mid-afternoon with strong, gusty westerly winds across the region behind an eastward-moving dryline and surface trough. For these reasons, the remainder of the elevated and critical area remain unchanged. See the previous discussion below for more detail. ..Cook.. 01/21/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern Plains Vicinity... A deepening upper low and attendant trough will track eastward across the southern and central Rockies into the Plains. Strong height falls and an intense southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the Plains by late morning to early afternoon. This will result in the development of a lee cyclone in the vicinity of southeast CO/southwest KS, which will shift east along the OK/KS border through the late afternoon. Surface temperatures will be cooler across eastern NM into parts of western TX compared to previous days, but above normal temperatures are expected across eastern portions of the TX Panhandle into central TX and western OK. As temperatures warm, deep boundary-layer mixing will occur and RH values will fall into the 10-20 percent range from southwest TX/far southeast NM into western OK. Critical fire weather conditions are expected in this swath as very strong west/southwest surface winds develop. Sustained wind speeds of 25-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph are possible. These strong winds will encompass a larger area of the southern High Plains from eastern NM all the way into central OK and TX. Surrounding the critical area, RH values will be more marginal and the duration of any critical conditions, should they develop, will be brief. By late afternoon, a cold front will begin to drop southeast across the OK/TX Panhandles and northwest OK and winds will shift to the northwest into the overnight hours. Winds will remain gusty overnight for much of the region but RH values will rebound into the 40-80 percent range. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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