Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Mon May 22 16:55:03 UTC 2017 (20170522 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20170522 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   FNUS21 KWNS 221623

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1123 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

   Valid 221700Z - 231200Z


   Morning observations and latest numerical guidance support the
   ongoing forecast. No changes necessary.

   ..Marsh.. 05/22/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

   Large cyclone currently centered over northwest Ontario will expand
   throughout the period, encouraged by several shortwave troughs
   rotating through its eastern and western periphery. One such
   shortwave trough is expected to move through the northern Plains and
   central Plains. Cold airmass associated with this southward
   progressing shortwave trough will more through much of the region
   with the attendant cold front likely stretching from the upper MS
   Valley southwestward to the central High Plains by 00Z Tuesday.
   Elsewhere, widespread shower and thunderstorms are anticipated
   across much of the Southeast and mid-Atlantic while upper ridging
   builds across the West Coast.

   ...Northwest/north-central NM...
   Surface pressure gradient will increase across the region ahead of
   the approaching cold front. This tightened surface pressure gradient
   coupled with modest northwesterly flow aloft will foster some breezy
   conditions (i.e. sustained winds around 15 to 20 mph) this
   afternoon. Additionally, despite below-average temperatures, deep
   boundary-layer mixing amidst the antecedent dry conditions will
   support afternoon RH values in the teens. This mix of breezy winds
   and low RH will result in some locally elevated fire weather
   conditions but generally unreceptive fuels and short duration of
   these conditions will preclude a higher fire weather threat.

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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