Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Thu Apr 24 07:53:03 UTC 2014 (20140424 1200Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20140424 1200Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 67,482 27,267,508 Philadelphia, PA...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...Yonkers, NY...Paterson, NJ...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 240752

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NJ...ERN PA...SRN NY...WRN CT...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR N-CNTRL SD SWD INTO CNTRL NEB...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THE CNTRL CONUS...WITH A
   SRN-STREAM IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS
   VALLEY...AND A NRN-STREAM IMPULSE PROGRESSING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES...BEFORE GRADUALLY PHASING TOGETHER BY EARLY FRI MORNING. SFC
   REFLECTION OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE A WEAK LOW MOVING ACROSS MO AND
   A TROUGH EXTENDING N-NWWD INTO SK. NLY SFC WINDS WILL EXTEND N-S
   ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT PLAINS W OF THE SFC LOW/TROUGH. FARTHER
   E...A BELT OF ENHANCED LOW-MIDLEVEL NWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
   MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...MAINTAINING A VERY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS
   THESE AREAS.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...
   A BELT OF STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL NWLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BE DISPLACED
   NEWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW-MOVING OFFSHORE LOW. DRY ADVECTION
   ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN PW FALLING TO 0.15-0.3 IN. DAYTIME
   TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD /50S-LOW 60S F/...BUT GIVEN EXCEPTIONAL
   DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS...AS WELL AS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
   MIXING...DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 15-25 PERCENT. HIGHEST
   CONFIDENCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM
   NJ/ERN PA NWD INTO WRN CT AND SRN NY...WHERE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
   OF 20-25 MPH /GUSTS 30-40 MPH/ ARE LIKELY.

   COOLER TEMPERATURES FARTHER N TOWARDS E-CNTRL NY AND WRN MA PRECLUDE
   INCLUSION IN THE CRITICAL RISK AREA ATTM...BUT MIN RH VALUES ARE
   STILL FORECAST TO APPROACH 20 PERCENT. FARTHER E INTO ERN
   MA...SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL OCCURRED ON WED/D1 AND WILL PRECLUDE
   HIGHLIGHTS...DESPITE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS APPROACHING/MEETING
   CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

   ...PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
   A BELT OF 40-50 KT 850 MB NLY FLOW WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGHOUT THE DAY
   IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LOW APPROACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY. DEEP
   DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF
   20-25 MPH BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY 15Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
   THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN
   RH VALUES FALLING TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON.

   WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER FARTHER W OVER THE
   HIGH PLAINS...BUT SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL
   RESULT IN RH VALUES 10-15 PERCENT...SUPPORTING AN ELEVATED FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT. ACROSS S-CNTRL AND ERN NEB...SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
   OCCURRED EARLY THU MORNING...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE INCLUSION IN AN
   ELEVATED/CRITICAL RISK AREA.

   ..ROGERS.. 04/24/2014

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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