Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Fri Nov 17 16:53:02 UTC 2017 (20171117 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20171117 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 17,899 381,495 Amarillo, TX...Clovis, NM...Hereford, TX...Canyon, TX...Portales, NM...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   FNUS21 KWNS 171652

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1052 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

   Valid 171700Z - 181200Z


   ...Southern High Plains...
   Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are still anticipated
   for a few hours this afternoon as increasing mid-level flow coupled
   with deep boundary layer mixing and a strengthening surface pressure
   gradient combine to support sustained winds from 20 to 30 mph. High
   temperatures across the region will range from the mid 70s to upper
   80s (15 to 25 degree above-average), supporting afternoon RH values
   in from the low teens to mid 20s. Highest confidence in critical
   conditions remains from east-central NM northeastward into the
   central TX Panhandle. Near-critical conditions are anticipated
   farther south/southwest into southern NM with slightly weaker winds
   (sustained around 15 to 20 mph) precluding critical meteorological
   conditions. As mentioned in the previous discussion, fuels do not
   appear particularly receptive but given the strength of the winds
   and the anomalously warm temperatures, a widespread elevated to
   locally critical fire weather threat still exists.

   ..Mountains and Foothills of Southern CA...
   Current onshore gradient is expected shift offshore tonight as a
   front moves through the Great Basin and high surface pressure
   follows in its wake. Guidance indicates that the LAX-DAG and LAX-TPH
   gradients will be around -6 mb and -10 mb, respectively, by 12Z
   Saturday. Gradients of this strength will likely support wind gusts
   from 35-40 mph. RH values are expected to remain above critical
   thresholds across most of the region but some locally elevated fire
   weather conditions are still anticipated for a few hours early
   Saturday morning.

   ..Mosier.. 11/17/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/

   Strong mid-level flow will develop across the southern Plains on
   Friday as a mid-level trough quickly moves east into the central
   United States. This strong mid-level flow will result in downslope
   warming/drying across the southern Plains. Here, widespread
   temperatures in the mid-70s to mid-80s will combine with poor
   low-level moisture to result in minimum afternoon relative-humidity
   values falling into the teens in some locations. These warm/dry
   conditions will combine with surface-wind speeds gusting into the
   20-30 mph range to support elevated-to-critical fire-weather
   conditions. The most likely area for critical conditions will be
   from east-central New Mexico into the central Texas Panhandle, where
   surface winds around 30 mph sustained in the presence of mid-teen
   relative humidity. One potential mitigating factor is that ERCs are
   generally near or below the 50th percentile across the region, which
   may preclude a more widespread, larger-scale fire-weather threat.

   Late in the period (Saturday morning), north/north-east winds will
   develop across coastal areas of southern California. These weak
   Santa Ana winds may gust near 40-45 mph in wind favored areas. These
   strong winds will help dry out finer fuels. However, even with the
   drying, relative humidity looks to remain high enough to preclude
   elevated highlights.

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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