Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Mon Jul 24 08:17:03 UTC 2017 ( | )
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 240814 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OR...NORTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST ID...FAR NORTHERN NV... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN ID INTO SOUTHWEST MT... ...Synopsis... An upper trough off of the northern California coast is expected to remain nearly stationary or drift slowly eastward today, while a stronger upper trough and associated surface low/cold front move eastward across the southern Canadian Prairies and northern High Plains. ...OR/Northern CA northeast into MT - Dry Thunderstorm Threat... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across a broad zone from Oregon/northern CA northeast into portions of MT, as the slow-moving upper trough gradually moves inland and smaller-scale features ahead of the primary trough move from the Great Basin into the northern Rockies. Thermodynamic profiles will favor a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms, though with coverage expected to be relatively high in an area where fuels are quite dry, this activity is expected to pose a substantial fire weather threat. Two critical areas were delineated - one across southern OR/northern CA/southwest ID, in closer proximity to the primary upper trough, and also from eastern ID into southwest MT, where a smaller-scale embedded trough and terrain-enhanced circulations may favor the development of a forward-propagating thunderstorm cluster this afternoon/evening. An isolated dry-thunderstorm threat will extend potentially as far east as eastern MT, depending on the timing of convection moving in from the southwest. Strong and erratic outflow winds may accompany any of the thunderstorm activity across the region, especially across portions of southwest into central MT. ...Portions of Montana into the western Dakotas - Elevated Wind/RH Threat... Somewhat cooler temperatures are expected across portions of MT and eastern ID into the western Dakotas compared to Sunday. However, dry westerly/northwesterly post-frontal flow will allow for low RH (potentially down to critical levels) to develop during the afternoon. In conjunction with these low RH values, anticipated sustained wind speeds of 15-20 mph (with locally higher gusts) will result in the potential for elevated to locally critical conditions. Confidence in the development of critical wind speeds remains too low for a critical upgrade (for wind/RH concerns) at this time. However, erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will also be possible across primarily southern portions of the elevated area (see section above for discussion of thunderstorm potential) during the late afternoon and evening. ..Dean.. 07/24/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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