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Feb 25, 2017 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sat Feb 25 18:06:04 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170225 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20170225 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 13,904 421,144 Socorro, TX...
   FNUS22 KWNS 251801

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1201 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z


   ...Portions of the southern high Plains and Trans-Pecos...
   Scenario outlined in the previous forecast (discussion below)
   remains valid. The only change was to expand the elevated area a bit
   more eastward into northwest TX where downslope effects will likely
   support minimum RH values in the upper teens to low 20s amidst
   southwesterly winds near 15 mph. 

   A very dry, post-frontal airmass will be in place across the region,
   supporting afternoon RH values from the upper teens to mid 20s.
   Fuels across the region are also quite dry. However, despite dry
   conditions and receptive fuels, winds across the region will be weak
   during the afternoon (i.e. less than 10 mph). The lack of stronger
   winds is expected to mitigate the fire weather threat, although some
   locally elevated conditions are possible.

   ..Mosier.. 02/25/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/

   Broad cyclonic mid/upper flow will remain established across much of
   the contiguous US on Sunday, as a series of impulses transit
   eastward across the Desert Southwest, Midwest, and East Coast. In
   response, a channel of strong west/southwesterly mid-level flow will
   exist from southern Arizona eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. At the
   surface, high pressure initially over the southern Appalachians will
   shift eastward off the North Carolina coast. Farther west, lee
   troughing will persist over the southern high Plains.

   ...Portions of the southern high Plains and Trans-Pecos...
   Breezy conditions should materialize by mid-day across the region,
   as deep diurnal mixing (aided by downslope trajectories) results in
   sustained winds around 20-30 mph. A channel of dry low/mid-level air
   will continue to overspread the region from the west, such that RH
   values should fall below 15 percent in many locations. Ongoing dry
   fuels will combine with these meteorological conditions to produce a
   critical fire-weather threat across parts of the Trans-Pecos.
   Surrounding this area, sustained westerly winds around 10-20 mph and
   RH values near 12-20 percent will support elevated concerns.

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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