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Oct 22, 2017 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sun Oct 22 19:57:02 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20171022 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20171022 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 10,512 16,657,514 Los Angeles, CA...Long Beach, CA...Santa Ana, CA...Anaheim, CA...Riverside, CA...
   FNUS22 KWNS 221956

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0256 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z


   ...Portions of southeastern Montana to northwest Kansas and
   The Day 2/Monday Elevated fire weather area has been expanded
   farther southeast into portions of western Nebraska, far northeast
   Colorado, and northwest Kansas. The extension was made to account
   for the latest fuel guidance, which indicates increasingly receptive
   fuels across these areas (mainly fine fuels). This is especially
   true across northwest Kansas and far southwest Nebraska, where AHPS
   data suggests little meaningful precipitation over the last 14 days.
   Otherwise, similar meteorological conditions are expected across the
   entire Elevated area. See previous discussion below for information
   on the expected meteorological conditions.  

   ...Southern California...
   Forecast of Elevated/Critical conditions is on track across this
   area. Thus, no changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. See
   previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire
   weather threat over southern California.

   ..Elliott.. 10/22/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0226 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017/

   Expansive high pressure will persist across the Intermountain West,
   with a 1041mb high centered over Idaho late in the forecast period. 
   To the east of this anticyclone, a strong surface low near the Great
   Lakes will set up a favorable surface pressure gradient for gusty
   winds in portions of the northern and central Plains.  Southwest of
   the high, a persistent "offshore" pressure gradient will foster
   gusty winds and heightened fire weather concerns in portions of
   southern California.

   ...Coastal Ranges of southern California...
   The overall fire weather scenario will change very little compared
   to previous days.  The aforementioned surface pressure gradient
   across the area will support widespread 15-25 mph surface winds,
   with gusts exceeding 40 mph especially near terrain-favored areas. 
   Hot surface temperatures will occur during peak-heating hours, with
   90s to near 100F expected amidst 7-12% surface RH values. 
   Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely,
   with at least elevated conditions persisting well into the overnight
   hours due to continued gusty winds and poor recovery.

   ...Portions of the High Plains from southeastern Montana to western
   Although surface temperatures will be relatively cool during
   peak-heating hours (50s F), 25-35 mph northwesterly flow (with
   higher gusts) will develop during the afternoon in response to the
   aforementioned surface pressure gradient across the region.  RH
   values will remain mostly above critical thresholds and range from
   22-28%.  These conditions are consistent with elevated fire weather
   criteria and an attendant delineation has been made.

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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