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Apr 25, 2015 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 25 15:56:03 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150425 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20150425 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 251551

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1051 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ELEVATED AREA ACROSS SE NM AND W TX BASED
   ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS AND FUELS FORECAST DATA. OTHERWISE THE
   PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
   DETAILS.

   ..LEITMAN.. 04/25/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0321 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO
   THE DESERT SW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL TRACK EWD. THIS TROUGH IS
   FORECAST TO DEVOLVE INTO TWO SEPARATE PERTURBATIONS ADVANCING
   THROUGH RESPECTIVE NRN/SRN STREAMS. BOTH OF THESE PERTURBATIONS WILL
   MOVE IN PHASE TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
   FLOW ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SRN PERTURBATION WILL EMERGE OVER
   PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE IT WILL ENCOURAGE LEE
   CYCLOGENESIS. SUBSIDENT NLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE PHASED
   PERTURBATIONS WILL FACILITATE SFC RIDGING ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
   BASIN.

   ...PORTIONS OF WRN TX AND ERN NM...
   ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MANIFESTED AT THE SFC AS SSWLY TO
   WSWLY WINDS OF 15-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION.
   DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL SUPPORT BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING/DRYING WITH RH
   VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 10-20 PERCENT. IN GENERAL...THE
   STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF ERN NM TO
   THE TX TRANS-PECOS REGION...BEING DISPLACED TO THE W OF LOWEST RH
   VALUES RELEGATED TO LOCATIONS FARTHER E ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN TX.
   THIS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY OF LIMITING SPATIAL OVERLAP OF CRITICALLY
   STRONG WINDS AND CRITICALLY LOW RH. SUCH OVERLAP MAY BE CONFINED TO
   THE VICINITY OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
   HOWEVER...SOME VARIABILITY AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTH RENDERS LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN SUCH OVERLAP
   OCCURRING. FURTHERMORE...AREAS OF RECENT PRECIPITATION AND FUEL
   GREEN-UP/MOISTENING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD MITIGATE THE FIRE
   WEATHER RISK SUFFICIENTLY TO PRECLUDE CRITICAL DESIGNATION.

   ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
   ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH DIURNALLY STRENGTHENED VERTICAL
   MIXING AND A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE SFC
   RIDGING REGIME WILL SUPPORT WNWLY TO NLY SFC WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH
   STRONGER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10-15 PERCENT IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH THESE WINDS TO SUPPORT ELEVATED TO
   BORDERLINE-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITHOUT
   STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW / A TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...
   CONFIDENCE IN CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OCCURRING ON
   ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS IS TOO LIMITED FOR CRITICAL
   DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME. ALSO...SOME AREAS OF PRECIPITATION DURING
   THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS AND RELATED FUEL MOISTENING MAY LOCALLY
   MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER RISK.

   ...SRN CA COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...
   THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN SUFFICIENTLY ON THE SWRN FLANK
   OF THE SFC RIDGING REGIME TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO
   LOCALLY STRONG NELY WINDS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD -- I.E. LATE
   SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH
   FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. HOWEVER...SUCH INCREASES IN SFC WINDS
   WOULD OCCUR WHEN NOCTURNAL COOLING AND RELATED INCREASES IN RH MAY
   MITIGATE THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER RISK SUFFICIENTLY TO PRECLUDE
   HIGHLIGHTS.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)

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Page last modified: April 25, 2015
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