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< Day 1 FW Outlook   Day 3 - 8 FW Outlook >
Aug 1, 2015 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sat Aug 1 16:45:03 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150801 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20150801 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 011641

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1141 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA.
   PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW
   FOR MORE DETAILS.

   ..LEITMAN.. 08/01/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0341 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
   SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY TOWARD THE ROCKIES WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL
   LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.  AT THE
   SURFACE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...ALTHOUGH SURFACE
   WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION IN THE ABSENCE
   OF STRONG LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. 
   THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...THE
   NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.

   ...PORTIONS OF NERN CA...NWRN NV...SERN ORE...CNTRL ID...SWRN MT...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA /PER WATER
   VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/ IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE INLAND AND MERGE
   OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WITH A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED MIDLEVEL
   IMPULSE ON SUNDAY.  EVEN THOUGH MODELS /INCLUDING
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING HIRESW RUNS/ ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
   THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
   EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   FEATURE.  LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT ARE ABLE TO
   RECEIVE FULL INSOLATION ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS.  THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION WILL
   HAVE DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION
   AND ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.  HIGHER COVERAGE OF DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME PORTION OF THIS
   REGION...HOWEVER...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO
   HIGHLIGHT A SCATTERED AREA.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)

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Page last modified: August 01, 2015
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