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< Day 1 FW Outlook   Day 3 - 8 FW Outlook >
Mar 30, 2015 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 30 18:06:02 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150330 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20150330 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 301805

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0105 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

   SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ELEVATED AREA ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS HAVE BEEN MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR A LARGER AREA OF POSSIBLE
   ELEVATED CONDITIONS IN WRN SD/NEB...N-CNTRL WY...AND FAR SWRN ND.
   THE LACK OF STRONGER FORECAST WINDS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OCCURRING TUE AFTERNOON ACROSS ANY
   PORTION OF THE ELEVATED AREA. HOWEVER...LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
   MAY BE REALIZED IN THE LEE OF THE NRN ROCKIES/BIGHORN MTNS FOR A
   SMALL PORTION OF S-CNTRL MT/N-CNTRL WY OWING MAINLY TO ENHANCED
   DOWNSLOPE WINDS...AND A CRITICAL AREA MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED FOR
   THIS REGION IN A FUTURE UPDATE IF CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED WINDS
   ABOVE 20 MPH INCREASES. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE
   PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW REMAINS VALID.

   ..GLEASON.. 03/30/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0326 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH UPPER PATTERN WITHIN THE NRN STREAM
   WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
   FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND OFF THE NRN
   MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE WRN SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN
   ROCKIES. UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE
   PLAINS. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES
   EWD FROM NRN MEXICO THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LEE
   TROUGHING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
   APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN SHORTWAVE WILL
   MOVE EWD THROUGH PA AND NJ WHILE AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
   THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. 

   ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL-ABOVE-AVERAGE
   AS DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS HELP PUSH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S. RESULTANT
   RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW 15 PERCENT. WIND SPEEDS THROUGHOUT
   THE AREA MAY BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT AS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN
   THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED
   TO STAY BELOW 20 MPH. THESE LIGHTER WINDS WILL ACT TO MODERATE THE
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT WITH ONLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED. 

   ...GREAT BASIN...
   WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MID/UPPER FLOW
   INCREASES AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS OVER 20
   MPH AND MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF NRN NV...E-CNTRL NV/W-CNTRL UT...AND NW AZ. HOWEVER...FUELS
   THROUGHOUT THE REGION ARE LARGELY UNRECEPTIVE...MITIGATING ANY
   POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)

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Page last modified: March 30, 2015
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