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< Day 1 FW Outlook   Day 3-8 FW Outlook >
Apr 23, 2014 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Wed Apr 23 08:40:04 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140423 0700Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20140423 0700Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 230838

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0338 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...AS A SHORTWAVE
   UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES AND OH VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL EXTEND
   FROM ND SEWD INTO THE UPPER-MS VALLEY...TO THE INTERFACE OF AN
   ATTENDANT DRYLINE ORIENTED NE-SW TO THE TX RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
   FARTHER E...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE MAINTAINED BY A BELT OF NWLY
   FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER THE WRN
   ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
   AMPLIFY WHILE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST.

   ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...S-CNTRL SD AND N-CNTRL NEB...
   WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...W
   OF A SFC TROUGH SHIFTING EWD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STEEPENING
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH 25-30 KT FLOW IN THE 0-3 KM AGL LAYER
   WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SFC WINDS OF 20-30 MPH /HIGHER GUSTS/. THE
   DOWNSLOPE REGIME WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF WARM/DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER
   CONDITIONS...WITH RH VALUES PROBABLY RANGING FROM 15-20 PERCENT BY
   AFTERNOON. THE ELEVATED RISK AREA REFLECTS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
   LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL OCCURRING ON WED/D1...WITH HIGHER TOTALS
   POSSIBLE INTO NRN/ERN PORTIONS OF SD.

   ...NRN DELMARVA PENINSULA NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
   A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE NORTHEAST AS A BELT OF
   STRONG NWLY FLOW SHIFTS NWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW.
   DESPITE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ONLY FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
   UPPER-50S N TO MID-60S S...THE EXCEPTIONAL DRYNESS OF THIS AIR MASS
   /PW VALUES RANGING FROM 0.2-0.3 INCH/ WILL SUPPORT MIN RH VALUES OF
   15-25 PERCENT. COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH
   /MUCH HIGHER GUSTS/...AN ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT IS LIKELY TO MATERIALIZE. 

   AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK MAY ALSO EXTEND NWD INTO ADDITIONAL
   PORTIONS OF WRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
   ABOUT PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO OCCUR ON WED/D1...BUT THIS AREA WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR INCLUSION IN FUTURE UPDATES.

   ..ROGERS.. 04/23/2014

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)

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Page last modified: April 23, 2014
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