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Jun 24, 2016 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Fri Jun 24 18:43:02 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160624 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20160624 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 241838

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0138 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z


   ...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
   MINIMAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXISTING ELEVATED RISK AREA.
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONGEST POST-FRONTAL WLY
   FLOW DISPLACED NWD ACROSS ERN MT FROM THE DRIEST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR
   OVER ERN WY. WHILE POCKETS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY EXIST ACROSS A
   SMALL PART OF SRN MT AND/OR SERN WY...CONFIDENCE IN THE
   SPATIOTEMPORAL DETAILS STILL REMAINS TOO LOW FOR A CATEGORICAL RISK
   UPGRADE.

   ...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

   ..ROGERS.. 06/24/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0334 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
   CANADA...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. IN TANDEM WITH THIS LOW...A
   CORRIDOR OF 50-70 KT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT
   FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE SFC RESPONSE
   WILL FEATURE A TRANSITORY CYCLONE LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CANADA...WHERE IT THEN WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER
   LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN. IN THEIR WAKE...SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER
   THE ROCKIES. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
   CONUS...AS BROAD RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DESERT
   SOUTHWEST.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
   IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT...GUSTY
   WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP MIXING AND A
   TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD FAVOR SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
   15-25 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN WY. STRONGER SUSTAINED
   WINDS /I.E. AROUND 20-30 MPH/ WILL PROBABLY MATERIALIZE OVER PARTS
   OF SOUTHERN MT AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WHILE A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
   BE USHERED ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
   DRY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF MIN RH VALUES BELOW 20-25
   PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE LOWEST /BELOW 10-15 PERCENT/
   ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WY. AS A RESULT...AT LEAST ELEVATED
   FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS WILL MATERIALIZE WHERE FUELS ARE
   DRY...GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN WY...SOUTHERN MT...AND NORTHWESTERN
   SD. 

   SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL CONCERNS EXISTS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
   SOUTHERN MT AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
   SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF CRITICAL WINDS/RH VALUES IS TOO LOW FOR AN
   UPGRADE AT THIS TIME.

   ...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
   PERIOD ACROSS TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS...IN RESPONSE TO MODEST
   ENHANCEMENT OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY
   THUS WILL ENCOURAGE ELEVATED/LOCALLY CRITICAL CONCERNS EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD. AS RH VALUES FALL THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER...THE SFC GRADIENT
   SHOULD RELAX...AS NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIDGING
   WEAKENS. IN TURN...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE WEAKER THAN THAT OF
   PREVIOUS DAYS...LIKELY PRECLUDING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONCERNS.
   NONETHELESS...CONTINUED ENHANCEMENT OF FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
   EXPECTED...AND AN ELEVATED AREA IS INTRODUCED.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)

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