Albuquerque, NM...Colorado Springs, CO...Pueblo, CO...Flagstaff, AZ...Farmington, NM...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 200901
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN UT...SRN
CO...CNTRL/NRN/WRN NM...NRN/E-CNTRL AZ...EXTREME WRN PARTS OF THE OK
PANHANDLE...EXTREME NWRN PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE MID LEVELS...MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WRN STATES. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE CENTER OF A CYCLONE SLOWLY
TRACKS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT SRN CANADA...AND A
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE S OF THE CYCLONE CENTER ADVANCES EWD ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NWRN STATES. MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE S-CNTRL CONUS. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WRN STATES. THIS FLOW WILL OVERLIE DRY SFC CONDITIONS IN SOME
LOCATIONS TO SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA.
...PORTIONS OF SRN UT...SRN CO...CNTRL/NRN/WRN NM...NRN/E-CNTRL
AZ...EXTREME WRN PARTS OF THE OK PANHANDLE...EXTREME NWRN PARTS OF
THE TX PANHANDLE...
VERTICAL MIXING WILL STRENGTHEN/DEEPEN INTO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO
SUPPORT SSWLY TO SWLY SFC WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS.
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS PART OF THE CRITICAL AREA...THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL BE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
WILL SURROUND A CNTRL-HIGH-PLAINS LEE LOW. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF A DRY AIR MASS...WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS YIELDING
ADDITIONAL DRYING...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 5-10
PERCENT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S AND 90S.
THE PRESENCE OF DRY/VERY DRY FUELS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT...WARRANTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DESIGNATION.
OF NOTE...ACROSS PARTS OF THE CRITICAL AREA WITHIN ERN CO...THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES...AND ERN NM...RECENT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DEPOSITED ABUNDANT WETTING RAINS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...LOCALLY MITIGATING THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
MEANWHILE...MANY AREAS HAVE EXPERIENCED LIMITED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY/WETTING RAINS...WITH BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION RECENTLY.
AND...PROVIDED LONG-TERM DROUGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS...THE CRITICAL
AREA IS WARRANTED.
...SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF CO...WRN
KS...SWRN/S-CNTRL NM...SRN/WRN AZ...SRN NV...SRN/ERN UT...SRN WY...
----STRONG WIND/LOW RH POTENTIAL----
TO THE W OF A CNTRL/SRN-HIGH-PLAINS LEE TROUGH/LOW...RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME CRITICALLY LOW IN MANY AREAS. THIS IS WHERE A DRY
AIR MASS WILL BE PRESENT...AND BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AND DRYING
WILL BE EXACERBATED BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
ELEVATED TO PERHAPS BORDERLINE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED...AS SLY TO SWLY SFC WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO AROUND 20
MPH THROUGH THE DAY WHILE VERTICAL MIXING STRENGTHENS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS OUTSIDE OF THE
CRITICAL AREA IS LIMITED OWING TO RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW BEING PRESENT. AS SUCH...CRITICAL
DESIGNATION HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.
----DRY-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN SRN NM----
THE PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...OROGRAPHIC ASCENT...AND
MARGINAL BUOYANCY WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NM. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED OWING TO PW VALUES BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 INCH
IN MANY AREAS AND SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION WITHIN DEEP SFC-BASED MIXED
LAYERS.
WITH LIMITED DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN AREAS WHERE RELATIVELY LOWER PW WOULD SUPPORT
A DRY-THUNDERSTORM MODE...SUCH THAT A DRY-THUNDERSTORM CRITICAL AREA
IS NOT WARRANTED -- I.E. ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN/S-CNTRL NM. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS SRN NM...HIGHER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE PW VALUES ARE AT THE HIGHER END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RANGE...SUPPORTING A MIXED WET/DRY THUNDERSTORM MODE.
REGARDLESS...IGNITIONS RESULTING FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE OF
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER PERIPHERIES OF RAIN CORES AMIDST
DRY/VERY DRY FUELS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ORIGINATING FROM THE STORMS
COULD ENHANCE THE SPREAD OF FIRES.
..COHEN.. 06/20/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)