ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 200901

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0401 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN UT...SRN
   CO...CNTRL/NRN/WRN NM...NRN/E-CNTRL AZ...EXTREME WRN PARTS OF THE OK
   PANHANDLE...EXTREME NWRN PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN THE MID LEVELS...MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE WRN STATES. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE CENTER OF A CYCLONE SLOWLY
   TRACKS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT SRN CANADA...AND A
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSE S OF THE CYCLONE CENTER ADVANCES EWD ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE NWRN STATES. MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE S-CNTRL CONUS. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL
   MAINTAIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   WRN STATES. THIS FLOW WILL OVERLIE DRY SFC CONDITIONS IN SOME
   LOCATIONS TO SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA.

   ...PORTIONS OF SRN UT...SRN CO...CNTRL/NRN/WRN NM...NRN/E-CNTRL
   AZ...EXTREME WRN PARTS OF THE OK PANHANDLE...EXTREME NWRN PARTS OF
   THE TX PANHANDLE...
   VERTICAL MIXING WILL STRENGTHEN/DEEPEN INTO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO
   SUPPORT SSWLY TO SWLY SFC WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS.
   ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS PART OF THE CRITICAL AREA...THESE STRONG
   WINDS WILL BE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
   WILL SURROUND A CNTRL-HIGH-PLAINS LEE LOW. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN THE
   COMBINATION OF A DRY AIR MASS...WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS YIELDING
   ADDITIONAL DRYING...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 5-10
   PERCENT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S AND 90S.
   THE PRESENCE OF DRY/VERY DRY FUELS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT...WARRANTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DESIGNATION.

   OF NOTE...ACROSS PARTS OF THE CRITICAL AREA WITHIN ERN CO...THE
   OK/TX PANHANDLES...AND ERN NM...RECENT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY HAS DEPOSITED ABUNDANT WETTING RAINS IN SOME
   LOCATIONS...LOCALLY MITIGATING THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   MEANWHILE...MANY AREAS HAVE EXPERIENCED LIMITED THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY/WETTING RAINS...WITH BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION RECENTLY.
   AND...PROVIDED LONG-TERM DROUGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS...THE CRITICAL
   AREA IS WARRANTED.

   ...SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF CO...WRN
   KS...SWRN/S-CNTRL NM...SRN/WRN AZ...SRN NV...SRN/ERN UT...SRN WY...
   ----STRONG WIND/LOW RH POTENTIAL----
   TO THE W OF A CNTRL/SRN-HIGH-PLAINS LEE TROUGH/LOW...RH VALUES ARE
   EXPECTED TO BECOME CRITICALLY LOW IN MANY AREAS. THIS IS WHERE A DRY
   AIR MASS WILL BE PRESENT...AND BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AND DRYING
   WILL BE EXACERBATED BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
   ELEVATED TO PERHAPS BORDERLINE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
   ANTICIPATED...AS SLY TO SWLY SFC WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO AROUND 20
   MPH THROUGH THE DAY WHILE VERTICAL MIXING STRENGTHENS.
   HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
   OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS OUTSIDE OF THE
   CRITICAL AREA IS LIMITED OWING TO RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
   STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW BEING PRESENT. AS SUCH...CRITICAL
   DESIGNATION HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

   ----DRY-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN SRN NM----
   THE PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...OROGRAPHIC ASCENT...AND
   MARGINAL BUOYANCY WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NM. PRECIPITATION
   AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED OWING TO PW VALUES BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 INCH
   IN MANY AREAS AND SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION WITHIN DEEP SFC-BASED MIXED
   LAYERS.

   WITH LIMITED DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
   WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN AREAS WHERE RELATIVELY LOWER PW WOULD SUPPORT
   A DRY-THUNDERSTORM MODE...SUCH THAT A DRY-THUNDERSTORM CRITICAL AREA
   IS NOT WARRANTED -- I.E. ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN/S-CNTRL NM. ELSEWHERE
   ACROSS SRN NM...HIGHER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY OCCUR IN AREAS
   WHERE PW VALUES ARE AT THE HIGHER END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
   RANGE...SUPPORTING A MIXED WET/DRY THUNDERSTORM MODE.

   REGARDLESS...IGNITIONS RESULTING FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE OF
   CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER PERIPHERIES OF RAIN CORES AMIDST
   DRY/VERY DRY FUELS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ORIGINATING FROM THE STORMS
   COULD ENHANCE THE SPREAD OF FIRES.

   ..COHEN.. 06/20/2013

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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