Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Mon Jan 23 18:33:03 UTC 2017 (20170123 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20170123 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 231828

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1228 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...Eastern NM/West TX into portions of the Southern Plains...
   Latest guidance continues to suggest strong westerly/northwesterly
   winds (i.e. sustained 25-35 mph with gusts around 45 mph) occurring
   amidst near-critical RH  values (15 to 25 percent). As such, current
   forecast expectations are similar to those outlined in the previous
   forecast discussion (below) with generally widespread elevated to
   near-critical conditions and brief/isolated critical conditions
   anticipated. Additionally, above-average precipitation over the past
   two weeks has contributed to less receptive fuels, although some
   drying of the finer fuels has occurred over the past few days. In
   all, confidence in critical conditions remains too low to delineate
   any critical threat areas with this outlook.

   ..Mosier.. 01/23/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   A deep upper trough is expected to progress eastward into the
   Plains/Upper Midwest on Tuesday. In conjunction with the upper
   trough, a surface low is expected to progress from the central High
   Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley, while an attendant cold
   front sweeps through portions of the central/southern Plains. Strong
   winds and dry conditions ahead of and immediately behind the front
   will result in a large area if elevated to locally critical fire
   weather conditions. 

   ...Eastern NM/West TX into portions of the Southern Plains...
   Strong winds will overspread a large area of the central/southern
   Plains on Tuesday, both in advance of and immediately behind the
   cold front. Sustained southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph with higher
   gusts will be common along and ahead of the front, while westerly to
   northwesterly winds of 20-30 mph are expected behind the front. In
   conjunction with the winds, a broad area from eastern NM/west TX
   eastward into OK will see minimum RH values of 15-25 percent,
   resulting in elevated fire weather conditions. At this time,
   confidence remains too low in a sufficient duration of critical RH
   to upgrade any part of the elevated area, but an upgrade may
   eventually become necessary if confidence increases in an area where
   fuels are sufficiently dry.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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