Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Tue Jun 27 16:50:02 UTC 2017 (20170627 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20170627 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 151,870 1,668,585 Provo, UT...Orem, UT...St. George, UT...Flagstaff, AZ...Grand Junction, CO...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 271645

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1145 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF UT...EASTERN
   NV...NORTHERN AZ...NORTHWEST NM...WESTERN CO...

   Primary changes to the Day-2 Fire Weather Outlook are as follows:

   1. The Critical area has been expanded eastward into additional
   portions of western CO and northwest NM. The latest model guidance
   suggests 20-30 mph southwesterly to westerly surface winds combining
   with 4-12 percent RH amid dry fuels across these areas added to
   Critical designation.

   2. An Elevated area has been added for the southern CA mountains and
   adjacent foothills. Based on the latest model guidance, continued
   low RH and modestly enhanced winds are expected into 
   Day-2/Wednesday -- prolonging the duration of enhanced fire-weather
   potential.

   3. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area has been expanded westward
   across northern UT, southeast ID, and into extreme northeast NV. The
   latest model guidance suggests sufficient buoyancy associated with
   deep, well-mixed boundary layers for the isolated dry-thunderstorm
   risk to extend farther west, as low-amplitude midlevel disturbances
   and related ascent cross the region in westerly flow aloft.

   No other changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

   ..Cohen.. 06/27/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   Predominately zonal upper pattern will exist across the CONUS at the
   beginning of the period (12Z Wednesday). Low-amplitude shortwave
   trough will track eastward through the upper Midwest and upper Great
   Lakes while another shortwave trough drops southeastward through the
   northern Rockies during the second half of the period. Enhanced
   westerly flow aloft across the Great Basin/central Rockies and warm
   temperatures will help keep surface pressures low across much of the
   region.

   ...AZ...Great Basin...Central/Northern Rockies...
   While cooler than temperatures observed during much of the past
   week, highs are still expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above average
   across much of the region on Wednesday. The airmass over the region
   also remains very dry, with afternoon RH values in the single digits
   expected areawide. Increased mid-level flow amidst a tight surface
   pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing will support gusty
   winds. Strongest winds (i.e. 20-30 mph) are expected from northern
   AZ through much of southern and central UT. These dry and windy
   conditions amidst dry fuels will support a critical fire weather
   threat. Elevated to locally critical conditions are anticipated
   across the remainder of the region.

   In addition to the wind-driven fire weather threat, portions of
   southern WY, far northeast UT, and northwest/north-central CO could
   see isolated dry thunderstorms within the modestly unstable but
   deeply mixed environment across the region. Enhanced mid-level flow
   will also contribute to fast storm motions, further reducing
   precipitation amounts at the surface.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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