Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Mon Oct 23 20:03:03 UTC 2017 ( | )
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 232002 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY... ...Southern California... The Elevated area was expanded a bit farther northeast to include portions of the Kern County mountains. Otherwise, the forecast of Elevated/Critical fire weather conditions persisting into Day 3/Wednesday remains on track, with no other changes needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ...Lower Colorado River Valley... A Critical area has been introduced across northern portions of the inherited Day 2/Tuesday Elevated area, as confidence has increased in sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph occurring in conjunction with RH values less than 10%. Otherwise, only minor changes were made to the inherited Elevated area. See previous discussion below for more information. ...Central Great Plains and vicinity... No changes have been made to the Elevated fire weather area. While some expansion and/or refinements may become necessary in future updates, uncertainty regarding warming/drying of low-level air mass and receptiveness of fuels precludes any changes at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ...Portions of southeast Texas and southern Louisiana... Heating of a dry low-level air mass will allow for minimum RH values of around 25-30% to briefly overlap with sustained surface winds of around 10-20 mph during the afternoon. However, very marginal fuel receptiveness to large fire spread -- owing to widespread rainfall in recent days -- should temper any fire weather threat. ..Elliott.. 10/23/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/ ...Synopsis... The overall surface synoptic pattern will change relatively little from D1/Monday, with expansive high pressure remaining anchored across much of the West, a slow-moving and deeply occluded low over the Great Lakes, and a weak surface trough along the California coast. Fire weather concerns will remain high across portions of southern California, the Lower Colorado River Valley, and central Plains. ...Coastal Ranges of southern California... Northeasterly surface flow will continue to remain strong across the region, ranging from 15-25 mph along with higher gusts in terrain-favored areas. Overnight recovery will remain poor, and latest model guidance suggests that near-critical (i.e., 15%) RH values will exist in the morning before falling into the single digits in several areas during peak-heating hours. The combination of very warm afternoon temperatures, gusty winds, low RH, and dry fuels all support elevated to critical fire weather areal delineations as the risk of rapid fire spread will remain high. ...Lower Colorado River Valley... Strong high pressure across the Great Basin will continue to favor gusty northerly flow across the region, with areas of 15-25 mph flow especially in the elevated fire weather delineation. RH values will also remain low (7-12%) as temperatures rise in 80s and low 90s. Where fuels are dry, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will exist during the afternoon and evening hours. ...Central Great Plains and vicinity... A strong surface pressure gradient across the region will favor development of 20-25 mph surface flow (with a few higher gusts) through the early evening in a broad area of the central Plains. Insolation/surface heating will result in temperatures rising into the 50s to near 60 F. RH values will remain mostly above critical thresholds (20-25%) during peak heating hours. Although elevated atmospheric fire weather conditions will exist in many areas of the Plains, the elevated delineation was confined to areas of western Nebraska, western Kansas, and eastern Colorado where fuels were driest and could support fire growth/spread. Farther south into western Oklahoma and western Texas, locally elevated fire weather conditions will exist where fuels are dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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