Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Sat May 26 09:20:03 UTC 2012
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD1)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 260918
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0418 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NM...S-CNTRL
CO...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT
SHIFTS EWD TOWARDS THE UPPER MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. A BELT OF STRONG
MIDLEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO THIS FEATURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES NNEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A CYCLONE WILL TRACK
NWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHILE AN ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
EXTENDS SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. OVER THE SERN
CONUS...SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL APPROACH THE NRN FL COAST AND
BRING EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NM...S-CNTRL CO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PROGRESS E-NEWD ACROSS NM THIS PERIOD. AN ATTENDANT BELT OF
STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW /E.G. 30-40 MPH AT 700 MB/ WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER THE AREA...AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL-MIXED...WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH /APPROACHING 30 MPH AT HIGHER
ELEVATION LOCALES/. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH EARLIER IN THE
PERIOD...VERY DRY CONDITIONS /E.G. PWAT VALUES AOB 0.2 INCH/ WILL
PERSIST AND YIELD MIN RH VALUES OF 5-10 PERCENT. THESE
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A RECENTLY OBSERVED PROLONGED DRY/WINDY
PERIOD...WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE RISK AREA.
...ERN CO...WRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES...FAR ERN NM...
A DRYLINE WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM NNE-SSW FROM WRN KS THROUGH THE
TX PANHANDLE...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH. TO
THE W OF THE DRYLINE...STRONG SWLY WINDS /E.G. SUSTAINED AT 20-30
MPH/ WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. ENHANCED
BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING PARTIALLY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL RESULT
IN MIN RH VALUES RANGING FROM 8-15 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT...ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL OBSERVED WITHIN THE PAST MONTH IS
EXPECTED TO MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ALONG
A DRYLINE LATE SAT/D1 INTO EARLY SUN/D2...SUPPORTING FURTHER
MOISTENING OF FUELS. THUS...A CRITICAL RISK AREA FOR THE SRN/CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED ATTM.
...SERN WY...WRN SD...NEB PANHANDLE...
STRONG WLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING CYCLONE...WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH 40 MPH
OF MIDLEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING SUSTAINED SFC WINDS OF 20-30 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY WARM
/60S-70S/...DOWNSLOPE ENHANCED DRYING SHOULD YIELD RH VALUES FALLING
TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD NORMALLY FAVOR A CRITICAL
RISK AREA...BUT WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OBSERVED ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN THE PAST MONTH...THE RISK FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE TEMPERED.
..ROGERS.. 05/26/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...