Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Tue Jun 27 16:50:02 UTC 2017 ( | )
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 271645 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF UT...EASTERN NV...NORTHERN AZ...NORTHWEST NM...WESTERN CO... Primary changes to the Day-2 Fire Weather Outlook are as follows: 1. The Critical area has been expanded eastward into additional portions of western CO and northwest NM. The latest model guidance suggests 20-30 mph southwesterly to westerly surface winds combining with 4-12 percent RH amid dry fuels across these areas added to Critical designation. 2. An Elevated area has been added for the southern CA mountains and adjacent foothills. Based on the latest model guidance, continued low RH and modestly enhanced winds are expected into Day-2/Wednesday -- prolonging the duration of enhanced fire-weather potential. 3. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area has been expanded westward across northern UT, southeast ID, and into extreme northeast NV. The latest model guidance suggests sufficient buoyancy associated with deep, well-mixed boundary layers for the isolated dry-thunderstorm risk to extend farther west, as low-amplitude midlevel disturbances and related ascent cross the region in westerly flow aloft. No other changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Cohen.. 06/27/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal upper pattern will exist across the CONUS at the beginning of the period (12Z Wednesday). Low-amplitude shortwave trough will track eastward through the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes while another shortwave trough drops southeastward through the northern Rockies during the second half of the period. Enhanced westerly flow aloft across the Great Basin/central Rockies and warm temperatures will help keep surface pressures low across much of the region. ...AZ...Great Basin...Central/Northern Rockies... While cooler than temperatures observed during much of the past week, highs are still expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above average across much of the region on Wednesday. The airmass over the region also remains very dry, with afternoon RH values in the single digits expected areawide. Increased mid-level flow amidst a tight surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing will support gusty winds. Strongest winds (i.e. 20-30 mph) are expected from northern AZ through much of southern and central UT. These dry and windy conditions amidst dry fuels will support a critical fire weather threat. Elevated to locally critical conditions are anticipated across the remainder of the region. In addition to the wind-driven fire weather threat, portions of southern WY, far northeast UT, and northwest/north-central CO could see isolated dry thunderstorms within the modestly unstable but deeply mixed environment across the region. Enhanced mid-level flow will also contribute to fast storm motions, further reducing precipitation amounts at the surface. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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