Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Sat Aug 29 19:36:02 UTC 2015 (20150829 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20150829 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 291931

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0231 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

   NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

   ..COHEN.. 08/29/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0332 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WRN CANADIAN
   PROVINCES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE D2/SUN PERIOD WILL MOVE EWD SUN
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LIKELY REACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND
   SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BY EARLY MON MORNING. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL
   ALSO MOVE EWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION/ONTARIO
   THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
   DESERT SOUTHWEST BECOMES SUPPRESSED WITH THE TROUGH PASSING TO THE
   N. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL ALSO MOVE EWD
   OVER THE SAME GENERAL REGION.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...AND
   GREAT BASIN...
   BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE...STRONG/GUSTY DOWNSLOPE
   WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUN AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
   ROCKIES AND ADJACENT NRN HIGH PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENHANCED
   SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. WHILE SFC TEMPERATURES
   MAY INITIALLY BE COOL IN THE MORNING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...
   DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LOWER RH
   VALUES TO 20-25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
   CURRENT FORECAST COMBINATION OF WIND/RH VALUES SUPPORTS AN ELEVATED
   DESIGNATION FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SWRN MT...ERN ID...AND FAR NWRN
   WY...WITH LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

   FURTHER S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN...NWRN CO...AND MUCH OF
   WY...MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE GENERALLY WEAKER ON D2/SUN...
   AROUND 20-40 KT. REGARDLESS...AS DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SOME OF THESE WINDS ALOFT MAY
   BE PROMOTED TO THE SFC...AND AREAS OF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS MAY ALIGN
   WITH RH VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS FOR SEVERAL HOURS SUN
   AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTS A SEPARATE ELEVATED AREA ACROSS
   THIS REGION. AT THIS TIME...RH VALUES FORECAST TO GENERALLY REMAIN
   ABOVE 15 PERCENT PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF A CRITICAL AREA.

   FURTHER E ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...SLY LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING
   FROM THE W. LOWERED RH VALUES NEAR/BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS COMBINED
   WITH THE STRONG FORECAST WINDS WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT AT LEAST A
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER AREA...BUT GENERALLY UNRECEPTIVE FUELS ACROSS
   THIS REGION SHOULD LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT...AND THEREFORE NO
   ELEVATED AREA HAS BEEN DELINEATED.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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