Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Fri Jan 19 19:14:02 UTC 2018 (20180119 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20180119 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 191913

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0113 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   The ongoing forecast is on track, with only minimal eastward and
   southward expansions to the ongoing elevated area.  These changes
   are based on latest guidance, which is trending a bit warmer/drier
   with surface conditions during the afternoon - particularly in
   western Oklahoma and southward toward the US 281 corridor in
   west-central Texas.  Locally critical conditions remain possible in
   a few areas of central New Mexico, where slightly stronger (20-25
   mph) surface flow will exist amidst near-critical RH values (around
   15%).

   See the previous discussion below for more information.

   ..Cook.. 01/19/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   ...Southern High Plains...

   Strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the
   southern Rockies and southern High Plains on Saturday as the western
   trough shifts east over the Great Basin during the afternoon.
   Surface low pressure will develop over CO and southwesterly surface
   winds will increase through the afternoon. There still is some
   uncertainty regarding strength of surface winds with differences
   amongst various guidance. Sustained winds should range from 15-25
   mph and some areas of critical conditions are possible. Warm and dry
   conditions will persist, with above-normal temperatures in the upper
   60s and low 70s and RH values falling to around 12-20 percent. Given
   low confidence in stronger winds aligning with critically low RH
   values on more than a brief/spotty basis, will hold off on an
   upgrade to critical at this time.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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