Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Tue Sep 30 08:14:02 UTC 2014 (20140930 0700Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20140930 0700Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 300813

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0313 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN THE MID LEVELS...MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL TRACK THROUGH
   BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING AREAS FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN
   CONUS TO THE PLAINS. AS THE SRN-MOST IMPULSE ADVANCES FROM THE CNTRL
   GREAT BASIN AND SW STATES TO THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES...A MID-LEVEL
   RIDGE WILL EDGE EWD TOWARD THE WEST COAST. SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT
   ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE IMPULSE WILL /1/ ENHANCE SFC RIDGING ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN...AND /2/ BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
   INFLUX OF DRY TROPOSPHERIC AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE W-CNTRL/SWRN
   CONUS.

   ...PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA...
   THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WRN/SWRN FRINGES OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
   REGIME OF CNTRL-GREAT-BASIN SFC RIDGING WILL MODESTLY ENHANCE NLY TO
   ELY SFC WINDS ALONG THE CA COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT
   FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CA. RELATED
   DOWNSLOPE-FLOW-AIDED WARMING/DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
   RESULT IN MINIMUM RH FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS IN
   MANY AREAS...WITH POOR RH RECOVERY WED NIGHT...AS DEEP DRY AIR
   OVERLIES THE REGION.

   AN ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
   COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA -- SPECIFICALLY
   AFFECTING AREAS FROM ERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY EWD ACROSS VENTURA
   COUNTY INTO PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND SWRN SAN BERNARDINO
   COUNTY. THIS IS WHERE THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
   EXISTENCE OF A RELATIVELY TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT CAPABLE OF
   SUPPORTING SUSTAINED NELY TO ELY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS -- STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH FAVORED PASSES/CANYONS. AND...WITH
   DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEING LOCALLY BOLSTERED IN THESE AREAS...AND WITH PW
   VALUES FALLING TO AROUND ONE-QUARTER INCH...RH VALUES WILL LIKELY
   FALL TO 8-15 PERCENT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DRY FUELS...ELEVATED
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ON WED
   AND CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AS RH VALUES REMAIN LOW. LOCALIZED
   BORDERLINE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
   EVOLVE...PARTICULARLY DURING WED NIGHT AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
   POTENTIALLY BECOMES REINFORCED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN A MORE
   WIDESPREAD RISK FOR STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IS TOO LIMITED FOR
   CRITICAL DELINEATION...IN THE ABSENCE OF A TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE
   GRADIENT.

   ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY SPOTTY/BRIEF/MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS MAY ENSUE...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE HILLS SURROUNDING THE
   SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND LOCATIONS SWD TO THE INTERNATIONAL
   BORDER...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CA...WHERE DRY
   FUELS EXIST. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
   BELOW 15 MPH -- WITHOUT A TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT -- TO
   MITIGATE THE FIRE-WEATHER RISK. THIS PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF
   ANY ADDITIONAL FIRE-WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

   ..COHEN.. 09/30/2014

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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