Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Sat Mar 25 18:56:02 UTC 2017 (20170325 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20170325 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 112,994 2,116,208 Albuquerque, NM...Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Las Cruces, NM...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   FNUS22 KWNS 251851

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0151 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z


   Only changes to the ongoing forecast were to expand the critical in
   portions of the Texas South Plains/Panhandle northward slightly,
   where recent model guidance suggests near-critical conditions will
   develop during the afternoon.  Elevated (and perhaps locally
   critical) fire weather conditions may also occur into the
   northeastern Texas Panhandle and portions of far western Oklahoma
   for a few hours as westerly low-level flow advects a dry airmass
   into these areas.  The eastern edge of the elevated/critical areas
   is dependent on the eastward extent of mixing/drying along and west
   of a dryline that should approach the US 281 corridor in
   central/western north Texas during the afternoon.  This region will
   be refined further in later outlooks as details become clearer.

   Remainder of the forecast is on track.  See the previous discussion
   below for more information.

   ..Cook.. 03/25/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0250 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/

   A fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough will continue to move
   east across the southern United States during the forecast period.
   This wave will induce surface cyclogenesis in the vicinity of
   southeast Colorado. This surface cyclone will slowly move
   east-southeast toward the Red River Valley during the day before
   turning east-northeast overnight.

   ...Southern Rocky Mountains and Southern Plains...
   As the surface low develops/strengthens across the southern High
   Plains, surface winds are expected to increase across much of the
   south-central United States. The details as to how and where the
   surface low develops, will play a large role in the evolving
   fire-weather threat.

   To the south and west of the surface low, westerly winds will
   promote downslope warming and drying. To the east and east-southeast
   of the surface low, southeast surface winds will draw Gulf of Mexico
   moisture northwestward. At this time it appears that the surface low
   will develop in the vicinity of the southeast Colorado and the
   western part of the Oklahoma Panhandle. This would establish a
   dryline during the afternoon very near the 100 degree west
   longitude. To the west of this dryline, surface winds in the 20-30
   mph range, coupled with relative humidity in the 10-15% range will
   result in critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New
   Mexico and southwest Texas.

   East of the critical area, surface winds should remain sufficiently
   strong to result in fire-weather concerns. Exactly where critical
   conditions develop will be strongly influenced by where the dryline
   is located.

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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