Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Mon Oct 23 20:03:03 UTC 2017 (20171023 1200Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20171023 1200Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 10,738 16,824,656 Los Angeles, CA...Long Beach, CA...Santa Ana, CA...Anaheim, CA...Riverside, CA...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   FNUS22 KWNS 232002

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0302 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z


   ...Southern California...
   The Elevated area was expanded a bit farther northeast to include
   portions of the Kern County mountains. Otherwise, the forecast of
   Elevated/Critical fire weather conditions persisting into Day
   3/Wednesday remains on track, with no other changes needed. See
   previous discussion below for more information. 

   ...Lower Colorado River Valley...
   A Critical area has been introduced across northern portions of the
   inherited Day 2/Tuesday Elevated area, as confidence has increased
   in sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph occurring in conjunction
   with RH values less than 10%. Otherwise, only minor changes were
   made to the inherited Elevated area. See previous discussion below
   for more information. 

   ...Central Great Plains and vicinity...
   No changes have been made to the Elevated fire weather area. While
   some expansion and/or refinements may become necessary in future
   updates, uncertainty regarding warming/drying of low-level air mass
   and receptiveness of fuels precludes any changes at this time. See
   previous discussion below for more information.

   ...Portions of southeast Texas and southern Louisiana...
   Heating of a dry low-level air mass will allow for minimum RH values
   of around 25-30% to briefly overlap with sustained surface winds of
   around 10-20 mph during the afternoon. However, very marginal fuel
   receptiveness to large fire spread -- owing to widespread rainfall
   in recent days -- should temper any fire weather threat.

   ..Elliott.. 10/23/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/

   The overall surface synoptic pattern will change relatively little
   from D1/Monday, with expansive high pressure remaining anchored
   across much of the West, a slow-moving and deeply occluded low over
   the Great Lakes, and a weak surface trough along the California
   coast.  Fire weather concerns will remain high across portions of
   southern California, the Lower Colorado River Valley, and central

   ...Coastal Ranges of southern California...
   Northeasterly surface flow will continue to remain strong across the
   region, ranging from 15-25 mph along with higher gusts in
   terrain-favored areas.  Overnight recovery will remain poor, and
   latest model guidance suggests that near-critical (i.e., 15%) RH
   values will exist in the morning before falling into the single
   digits in several areas during peak-heating hours.  The combination
   of very warm afternoon temperatures, gusty winds, low RH, and dry
   fuels all support elevated to critical fire weather areal
   delineations as the risk of rapid fire spread will remain high.

   ...Lower Colorado River Valley...
   Strong high pressure across the Great Basin will continue to favor
   gusty northerly flow across the region, with areas of 15-25 mph flow
   especially in the elevated fire weather delineation.  RH values will
   also remain low (7-12%) as temperatures rise in 80s and low 90s. 
   Where fuels are dry, elevated to locally critical fire weather
   conditions will exist during the afternoon and evening hours.

   ...Central Great Plains and vicinity...
   A strong surface pressure gradient across the region will favor
   development of 20-25 mph surface flow (with a few higher gusts)
   through the early evening in a broad area of the central Plains. 
   Insolation/surface heating will result in temperatures rising into
   the 50s to near 60 F.  RH values will remain mostly above critical
   thresholds (20-25%) during peak heating hours.  Although elevated
   atmospheric fire weather conditions will exist in many areas of the
   Plains, the elevated delineation was confined to areas of western
   Nebraska, western Kansas, and eastern Colorado where fuels were
   driest and could support fire growth/spread.  Farther south into
   western Oklahoma and western Texas, locally elevated fire weather
   conditions will exist where fuels are dry.

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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