Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Thu Apr 27 06:04:03 UTC 2017 (20170427 1200Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20170427 1200Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 37,181 3,409,565 Phoenix, AZ...Glendale, AZ...Scottsdale, AZ...Peoria, AZ...Yuma, AZ...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   FNUS22 KWNS 270559

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z


   An embedded shortwave trough in larger-scale cyclonic flow will lead
   to stronger height falls over the southwestern deserts on Friday.
   This will bring even stronger north/northwesterly flow to the region
   as compared to the past few days. Further east, the mid/upper level
   west/southwesterly jet streak will continue to spread across NM into
   the southern Plains. At the surface, low pressure will extend from
   the southwest deserts to the southern High Plains while higher
   pressure begins to settle into the Pacific Northwest and northern
   portions of the Great Basin. This will lead to a tightening pressure
   gradient across much of the southwestern U.S, and widespread strong
   winds are expected with fire weather concerns again impacting parts
   of the southwestern states into TX.

   Across FL, a tightening surface pressure gradient is forecast as
   strong high pressure resides over the western Atlantic and the
   deepening low pressure over the southern High Plains. Drying will
   occur over portions of the central peninsula and fire weather
   concerns are anticipated.  

   ...Lower CO Valley into western AZ...

   Intense north/northwest winds are expected to develop across the
   region by midday as temperatures warm into the 80s and low 90s. As
   this occurs, RH values will plummet from the single digits to low
   teens. Sustained winds from 20-30 mph with higher gusts will be
   common. Where fuels are available, critical fire weather conditions
   are expected. 

   ...Portions of southern NM into west TX...

   Wind speeds will not be as strong as on Thursday, but still
   sufficient for fire weather concerns with sustained westerly winds
   from 15-25 mph expected. RH values will be somewhat marginal from
   12-18 percent. Some brief/locally critical conditions will be
   possible, but these concerns are not expected to be as widespread as
   previous days. 

   ...Portions of the central FL Peninsula...

   Strong heating during the day will allow temperatures to climb into
   the 90s and deep boundary-layer mixing will occur. This will allow
   relative humidity values to fall into the 35-45 percent range. Due
   to the modest surface pressure gradient increase across the region,
   wind speeds will be somewhat stronger than on Thursday at 10-15 mph.
   Some brief/spotty critical conditions can not be ruled out and an
   upgrade to critical could be needed in subsequent outlooks should
   wind speeds trend stronger and RH values lower. 

   ...Southern CA coastal ranges and foothills...

   Strong northerly winds are expected across the region on Friday,
   along with warm temperatures and low RH values. While meteorological
   conditions would support elevated to critical conditions, fuels
   across the region are too moist and unreceptive to fire spread.

   ..Leitman.. 04/27/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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