Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Sat Nov 22 19:44:03 UTC 2014 (20141122 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20141122 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 221943

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0143 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   AFTER COLLABORATION WITH LOX AND SGX...WILL INTRODUCE AN ELEVATED
   AREA EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF SANTA BARBARA CO DOWN TO PORTIONS OF
   ORANGE AND RIVERSIDE COS. PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING IS ON
   TRACK...WITH GUSTY N/NE WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES BEING REALIZED
   SUNDAY...AND POOR RH RECOVERY THAT NIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGES
   AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING DISCUSSION
   WITH SRN CA OFFICES REGARDING FUEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...IT APPEARS
   FUELS WILL HAVE DRIED ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ELEVATED AREA.

   ..PICCA.. 11/22/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CNTRL AND
   ERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. ON D2/SUN...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING
   OVER THE SWRN CONUS FROM THE ERN PACIFIC. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
   WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NWRN STATES BEHIND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.

   ...PORTIONS OF SRN CA AND THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
   OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS SRN CA AS THE
   SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING INTO
   THE GREAT BASIN AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST. VARIOUS
   FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GUSTY NW TO NE WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE
   MORNING HOURS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/FAVORED WINDY LOCATIONS
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN CA...BEFORE TRANSLATING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS
   BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT. RH
   VALUES MAY FALL TO THE 8-15 PERCENT RANGE AS THESE OFFSHORE WINDS
   OCCUR...WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. GUSTY N WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR
   THROUGH THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOWERED RH
   VALUES...BUT CRITICAL RH THRESHOLDS MAY NOT BE MET.

   THIS SCENARIO WOULD USUALLY SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ELEVATED DESIGNATION
   FOR MUCH OF SRN CA. HOWEVER...RECENT SPOTTY PRECIPITATION HAS
   SLIGHTLY INCREASED 10/100-HR FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ACROSS SRN
   PORTIONS OF THE SANTA ANA AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THIS
   SHOULD LESSEN THE THREAT FOR LARGE-SCALE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS FOR D2/SUN ACROSS MUCH OF SRN CA. 

   ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS LOWERED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE ACROSS
   THE SANTA BARBRA MOUNTAINS TO THE NW OF LOS ANGELES WHERE RAINFALL
   HAS NOT OCCURRED AND FUELS REMAIN DRY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE
   FORECAST OFFICES IN OXNARD AND SAN DIEGO...HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE
   ANY AREAS IN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK AT THIS TIME. WITH THAT
   SAID...LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ON AN ISOLATED BASIS
   SUN AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE RECENT RAINFALL DID NOT
   WET FINE FUELS...AND A SMALL ELEVATED AREA MAY BE ADDED IN FUTURE
   UPDATES.

   ...PORTIONS OF ERN NM...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND WRN TX...
   SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
   AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SUN AFTERNOON SHOULD ONLY
   REACH INTO THE 50S TO PERHAPS LOWER 60S...WITH RH VALUES LIKELY
   REMAINING ABOVE 20 PERCENT. THEREFORE HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
   HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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