Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Mon Jan 23 18:33:03 UTC 2017 ( | )
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 231828 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Eastern NM/West TX into portions of the Southern Plains... Latest guidance continues to suggest strong westerly/northwesterly winds (i.e. sustained 25-35 mph with gusts around 45 mph) occurring amidst near-critical RH values (15 to 25 percent). As such, current forecast expectations are similar to those outlined in the previous forecast discussion (below) with generally widespread elevated to near-critical conditions and brief/isolated critical conditions anticipated. Additionally, above-average precipitation over the past two weeks has contributed to less receptive fuels, although some drying of the finer fuels has occurred over the past few days. In all, confidence in critical conditions remains too low to delineate any critical threat areas with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 01/23/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/ ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough is expected to progress eastward into the Plains/Upper Midwest on Tuesday. In conjunction with the upper trough, a surface low is expected to progress from the central High Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley, while an attendant cold front sweeps through portions of the central/southern Plains. Strong winds and dry conditions ahead of and immediately behind the front will result in a large area if elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Eastern NM/West TX into portions of the Southern Plains... Strong winds will overspread a large area of the central/southern Plains on Tuesday, both in advance of and immediately behind the cold front. Sustained southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts will be common along and ahead of the front, while westerly to northwesterly winds of 20-30 mph are expected behind the front. In conjunction with the winds, a broad area from eastern NM/west TX eastward into OK will see minimum RH values of 15-25 percent, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions. At this time, confidence remains too low in a sufficient duration of critical RH to upgrade any part of the elevated area, but an upgrade may eventually become necessary if confidence increases in an area where fuels are sufficiently dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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