Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 241508

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1008 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

   Valid 241700Z - 251200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   Locally elevated conditions (hot, dry, unstable, and breezy) are
   likely to develop across most of Arizona and western New Mexico this
   afternoon including in the vicinity of the Buzzard fire. Forecast
   still looks on track and no changes are necessary. Please see
   discussion below for more details.

   ..Nauslar.. 05/24/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   Dry areas of the Southwest and southern Rockies will reside in
   between two systems - one mid-level shortwave trough lifting
   northeastward toward the northern Rockies and another closed low
   just west of California.  As a result, ridging will persist today
   and result in a relative minimum of mid-level flow across much of
   the western third of the CONUS.  At the surface, a relatively weak
   gradient will exist across the Southwest resulting from a weak
   trough from Nevada southward through the Lower Colorado River
   Valley.  Areas of breezy (10-15 mph) southerly flow will exist from
   southern Arizona into the Four Corners during peak heating today
   amidst dry low-level conditions (critically low RH and dry
   fuels/drought).  Although locally elevated fire weather conditions
   will exist across portions of the region, overall wind fields remain
   a bit too weak to highlight any areas in the Southwest.  Elsewhere,
   moist fuels and relatively high RH will result in quiescent fire
   weather conditions across the remainder of the CONUS.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 241734

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1234 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   Locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across far
   southern Nevada/northwestern Arizona on Friday. However, these
   conditions may be relatively brief (< 3 hours) and coverage limited.
   Forecast still looks on track and no changes are necessary. Please
   see discussion below for more details.

   ..Nauslar.. 05/24/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   Flow aloft across the Southwest will increase in response to an
   approaching mid-level low centered over California.  As this occurs,
   vertical mixing processes and a slight strengthening of the surface
   pressure gradient across the Great Basin (compared to D1/Thu) will
   result in enough flow for elevated fire weather conditions across
   portions of the Southwest.  Elsewhere, quiescent larger-scale fire
   weather conditions are expected.

   ...Northern Arizona, southern Nevada, and southern Utah...
   The aforementioned synoptic pattern will result in broad areas of
   15-20 mph southwesterly surface flow developing by peak heating
   across the region.  Additionally, RH values will flirt with critical
   thresholds across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona while
   falling into single digits across northeastern Arizona and vicinity.
   While a few areas of critical atmospheric conditions are expected,
   these thresholds are currently expected to be met on too brief of a
   basis to necessitate any critical headlines at this time.  This
   region will be re-evaluated in later outlooks.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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