Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 143,615 4,190,404 El Paso, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   FNUS21 KWNS 241510

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1010 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

   Valid 241700Z - 251200Z


   Ongoing forecast is generally on track with minimal changes needed. 
   A broad area of critical conditions remain likely in portions of the
   southern Great Plains today as a surface low moves into northwest
   Oklahoma this afternoon.  The forecast is complicated by expected
   cloud cover over the Texas Panhandles, which may keep temperatures
   around 60F despite very strong northwesterly surface flow exceeding
   30 mph at times.  Radar estimates indicated generally less than 0.25
   inch of rain yesterday afternoon in most of the area, suggesting
   that fuels may be receptive for fire spread despite relatively high
   RH values.  Elevated (perhaps locally critical) fire weather
   conditions remain likely in these areas during the afternoon.

   Elsewhere, locally critical fire weather conditions are possible
   this afternoon in lower elevations of central New Mexico as wind
   speeds approach 20 mph for brief periods this afternoon.

   See the previous discussion below for more information.

   ..Cook.. 03/24/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0241 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

   A strong, closed mid-level low will move east across the
   south-central United States. As this occurs, a deep surface cyclone
   will slowly fill as it moves from southeast Colorado at the start of
   the period to central Oklahoma by late evening to southwest Missouri
   by the end of the period.

   ...Eastern New Mexico, Central and Western Texas, Oklahoma, and
   central Kansas...
   A strong mid-level jet will remain wrapped around the aforementioned
   mid-level low as it moves across the central United States.
   Subsidence beneath the core of the mid-level jet should allow for
   strong diurnal heating and mixing across much of the region.
   Vertical mixing stemming from this diurnal heating will allow strong
   winds within the jet core to mix to the surface. The result will be
   a large area of strong, gusty surface winds in the 20-30 mph range,
   with even stronger gusts. Mixing and warming will also allow
   relative humidity to fall to between 10-20% resulting in widespread
   critical fire-weather conditions.

   Surrounding the critical fire-weather conditions, slightly higher
   relative-humidity values will be a mitigating factor, however
   elevated fire-weather conditions will occur.

   ...Please see for graphic product...

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 28,732 204,004 Sierra Vista, AZ...Deming, NM...Silver City, NM...Socorro, NM...Truth or Consequences, NM...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   FNUS22 KWNS 241816

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0116 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   Introduced a critical fire weather area for portions of southwestern
   New Mexico and southeastern Arizona for this update.  Surface winds
   will increase in response to increasing mid-level flow associated
   with a trough approaching the area from the west.  This will result
   in areas of critical west-southwesterly surface flow (20-25 mph)
   along with RH values falling into the single digits especially along
   the international border area.  After coordination with local
   offices in the affected area (ABQ, EPZ, TWC), decided on a critical
   upgrade in areas most likely to experience the strongest surface
   flow amidst the dry airmass.

   See previous outlook discussion below for more information.

   ..Cook.. 03/24/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0310 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

   A negatively titled mid-level trough will continue to lift northeast
   from the south-central United States toward the Great Lakes. As this
   occurs, a second negatively tilted trough will begin to approach the
   south-central United States. At the surface, one surface low
   (originally over southwest Missouri) will continue to fill as it
   slowly moves northeast. To the southwest, a new surface cyclone
   should develop in response to the next mid-level trough approaching
   the central United States.

   ...Southeast Arizona, Much of central and southern New Mexico, and
   far West Texas...
   Southerly surface winds will develop in response to the next in a
   series of mid-level troughs approaching the area. Given strong
   heating, the lack of widespread rainfall, and little confidence in
   higher moisture-content air from the Gulf of Mexico reaching this
   area, afternoon relative-humidity values will fall into the 7-15%
   range. This dry boundary layer, coupled with increasing surface
   winds to between 15-20 mph, will result in widespread elevated
   fire-weather conditions. At this time, confidence in surface winds
   in excess of 20 mph over a large area is too low to warrant critical
   delineation. However, if confidence increases in a corridor or area
   where surface winds are in excess of 20 mph, critical delineation
   would be needed.

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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