Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 13,235 80,519 Douglas, AZ...Deming, NM...Silver City, NM...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 221620

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

   VALID 221700Z - 231200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SERN AZ AND SWRN NM...

   NO CHANGE IS WARRANTED TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

   ..SMITH.. 05/22/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0314 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC/SRN CA THIS MORNING WILL
   CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST
   TODAY. FURTHER E...UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CNTRL
   CONUS...AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AT THE
   SFC...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN/DESERT
   SOUTHWEST THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA SHOULD
   REDEVELOP SLIGHTLY EWD BY THIS EVENING WHILE DEEPENING. E OF THE
   ROCKIES...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN
   CONUS SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

   ...PORTIONS OF SERN AZ AND SWRN/W-CNTRL NM...
   AS BOTH THE UPPER AND SFC LOW APPROACH ERN AZ AND WRN NM TODAY...THE
   SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE. IN
   ADDITION...A MIDLEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
   UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER SRN AZ BY THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SFC
   WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF ERN AZ
   AND WRN NM FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS
   TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S AMIDST A
   DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...RH VALUES SHOULD FALL TO THE 7-15 PERCENT
   RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH RELATIVELY DRY FINE FUELS...THIS
   WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
   PORTIONS OF SERN AZ AND SWRN NM. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   ARE EXPECTED SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA...WITH SOMEWHAT LESS
   RECEPTIVE FUELS OWING TO ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION AND SLIGHTLY
   HIGHER RH VALUES BEING THE MAIN FACTORS PRECLUDING A LARGER CRITICAL
   AREA AT THIS TIME.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 221828

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0128 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   NO CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

   ..SMITH.. 05/22/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0314 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
   D2/SAT PERIOD WILL ADVANCE EWD TO THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL LIKEWISE MOVE EWD TO
   THE MS VALLEY REGION BY SAT EVENING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
   MAINE AND ADJACENT CANADIAN PROVINCES MOVES OFFSHORE BY SAT
   AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A LARGE ANTI-CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
   E-CNTRL U.S. SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE TO THE WRN ATLANTIC...WHILE
   WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OCCURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS. AN AREA
   OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
   DEEPEN OVER ERN CO BY SAT EVENING...WHILE A LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE
   ATTENDANT TO THIS LOW STRETCHES SWD ACROSS ERN NM. FIRE WEATHER
   CONCERNS ACROSS THE CONUS ON D2/SAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO
   PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL NM AND FAR W TX BEHIND THE DRYLINE...ALONG WITH
   A PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

   ...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL NM AND FAR W TX...
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE SAT AFTERNOON FOR 
   PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL NM/FAR W TX. DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE TO THE SFC. SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF
   15-20 MPH...WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...WILL COMBINE
   WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE TO ELEVATE FIRE
   WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THIS REGION. THE LACK OF STRONGER FORECAST
   WINDS AND MARGINAL FUEL DRYNESS PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF A
   CRITICAL AREA AT THIS TIME. WHILE ELEVATED METEOROLOGICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THRESHOLDS SHOULD BE MET ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NM SAT
   AFTERNOON...PRIOR RAINFALL HAS RENDERED FUELS UNRECEPTIVE FOR THIS
   REGION...AND THEREFORE THE ELEVATED AREA DOES NOT INCLUDE ERN NM.

   ...PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...
   AN ELEVATED AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR D2/SAT ACROSS A PORTION OF
   NEW ENGLAND...INCLUDING SRN VT/NH...MUCH OF MA...AND FAR NRN CT
   WHERE A RELATIVE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF
   DRY FINE FUELS. BEHIND AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE...A DRY LOW-LEVEL
   AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE NERN U.S. ON D2/SAT. AN
   ENHANCEMENT OF MIDLEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH SHOULD ENCOURAGE WLY SFC WINDS OF 10-15 MPH ACROSS THE
   ELEVATED AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS SAT AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES
   SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY COOL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
   60S...DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE RH REDUCTIONS BELOW 30 PERCENT
   FOR A FEW HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING...RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF STRONGER EXPECTED SFC WINDS
   PRECLUDES A CRITICAL DELINEATION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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