ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 251626
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
VALID 251700Z - 261200Z
...MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA...
15Z OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT OFFSHORE GRADIENT --
LAX-TPH OF 13 MB AND LAX-DAG OF 6.3 MB -- WITH GUSTS STILL OVER 30
MPH AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY IS STILL ANTICIPATED BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
STILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S /10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE/ WITH MIN RH VALUES IN
THE TEENS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION...CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT
UNRECEPTIVE FUELS WILL MITIGATE THE OVERALL THREAT. ELEVATED
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH NO CHANGE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS
ELEVATED AREA.
...WRN OK AND NWRN TX...
SUSTAINED NWLY WIND SPEEDS FROM 25-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. RESULTANT DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND
MIXING WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S -- 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE -- AND DROP MIN RH VALUES TO 15-20 PERCENT.
THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED/LOCALLY CRITICAL THREAT. RECENT RAINFALL HAS MOISTENED
FUELS SOMEWHAT BUT THE DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DRY
FINER FUELS AND THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO JUSTIFY DELINEATING AN ELEVATED THREAT AREA.
..MOSIER.. 01/25/2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0251 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
...SYNOPSIS...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ERN CONUS...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW PROGRESSING FROM THE SRN/CNTRL
PLAINS TOWARDS THE SERN U.S. FARTHER WEST...PAC COAST RIDGING WILL
SHIFT EAST AS A CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE THE BAJA PENINSULA DRIFTS N/NW.
...MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA...
THE OFFSHORE-FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SUNDAY...ALBEIT IN
A WEAKENED STATE RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE SFC GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A DIURNAL TREND OF MAXIMIZING AROUND 12Z AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEREAFTER. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ARE FORECAST THRU MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
DIMINISHES AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE.
AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS ENHANCE WARMING/DRYING EARLIER IN THE DAY...TEMPS
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...WHILE RH VALUES WILL FALL
INTO THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS ARE CONSISTENT
WITH A CRITICAL FIRE WX THREAT...A CONTINUATION OF RELATIVELY GREEN
FINER FUELS/HIGH LIVE-FUEL MOISTURE WILL TEMPER THE THREAT SOMEWHAT.
AS SUCH...THE ELEVATED DELINEATION WILL BE MAINTAINED.
...WRN OK AND NWRN TX...
STRONG...DEEP N/NWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH DIURNAL MIXING TO FOSTER
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID
IN DRYING...WITH RH VALUES LIKELY FALLING TO 20-25 PERCENT AS TEMPS
WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF
FUELS...CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RECENT PCPN WILL PRECLUDE A
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WX THREAT. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE
COLLOCATION OF SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH WITH THE LOWER RH
VALUES...LOCALIZED ELEVATED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF
DRIER FUELS THIS AFTERNOON.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 251730
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 70S -- 20 TO 30 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE -- ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 25 PERCENT.
LOCALIZED AREAS OF SUB-20 PERCENT RH VALUES ARE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SW NEB AND WRN KS WHERE GREATER
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DRIER SURFACE CONDITIONS. THE
STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT FARTHER E /MID MO
VALLEY/ RESULTING IN A DISSOCIATION BETWEEN THE LOWEST RH VALUES AND
BEST MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR STRONG SURFACE WINDS. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH WITH ISOLATED AREAS
REACHING 20 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A LOCALLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT BUT WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...PRECLUDING THE NEED TO INTRODUCE ANY
THREAT DELINEATIONS WITH THIS UPDATE.
..MOSIER.. 01/25/2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0251 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
...SYNOPSIS...
THE OVERALL MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS A STOUT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NE ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD AND RIDGING BUILDS
EAST TOWARDS THE PLAINS. ALONG THE WEST COAST...A TROUGH OF LOW PRES
WILL PROGRESS ONSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITS S/E FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NRN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN TEMPS RISING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE. WHILE LOCALIZED ELEVATED CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON...LOW
RH/STRONG WINDS/RECEPTIVE FUELS ARE NOT LIKELY TO OVERLAP ON A
WIDESPREAD BASIS. AS SUCH...NO DELINEATION IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
