Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 111612

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1012 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

   VALID 111700Z - 121200Z

   ...CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS...
   ANTECEDENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF TX IS VERY DRY...AS NOTED BY
   THE 12Z FWD AND BRO SOUNDINGS...WHICH REPORTED PW VALUES OF 0.28 AND
   0.47 INCH...RESPECTIVELY /BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE BASED ON SPC
   SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY/. AS A RESULT...MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL
   BELOW 20 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S /10-15 DEGREES
   ABOVE AVERAGE/. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK /BELOW/...
   THESE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH DRY FUELS WILL SUPPORT AN
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK
   WAS A SLIGHT NWD EXPANSION TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN RH
   VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT. WIND SPEEDS ARE THE LIMITING FACTOR
   PRECLUDING CRITICAL CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH.

   ..MOSIER.. 02/11/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PERSISTENT WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
   DOMINATE ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY...REINFORCED AT LEAST PARTIALLY BY
   A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY.  AT THE
   SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
   ...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE DEEP
   SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES NORTH OF A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE RIDGE.  A
   WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST...SETTING UP A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
   CALIFORNIA THAT WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS PRIMARILY IN TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS.  ELSEWHERE...
   SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN A WARM/DRY AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
   WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THAT AREA TODAY.

   ...SOUTH TEXAS...
   THE REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
   THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
   SURROUNDING THIS RIDGE WILL SUPPORT 10-15 MPH SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MID
   AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK HEATING.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   WILL ALSO RISE INTO THE 79-85F RANGE DURING PEAK HEATING...AND FUELS
   WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION OWING AT LEAST PARTIALLY TO A
   DEARTH OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST MONTH.  RH VALUES WILL
   APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
   IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.  GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS...AN
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DELINEATION WILL BE RETAINED FOR THIS
   FORECAST.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 111708

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1108 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA...
   SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   CNTRL AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
   SUSTAINED WLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH OCCUR AMIDST MIN RH VALUES
   AROUND 35 PERCENT. HOWEVER...OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
   TEMPERED BY UNRECEPTIVE FUELS /ERC VALUES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN
   THE 70TH PERCENTILE/...PRECLUDING THE INTRODUCTION OF ANY THREAT
   AREAS WITH THIS FORECAST.

   ..MOSIER.. 02/11/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0629 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A FEW MINOR
   CHANGES HEADED INTO THE D2/FRI FORECAST PERIOD.  A LONGWAVE TROUGH
   WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF THE CONUS...WHILE
   RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO AN
   APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ALONG THE OREGON/WASHINGTON COASTS.  AT THE
   SURFACE...ROBUST CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE GULF
   STREAM...SETTING UP SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR STRONGER
   SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PERHAPS LOCALLY
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  A STRONG /1045 MB/ HIGH WILL MOVE
   SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS...LEADING TO A TIGHTENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION.  MEANWHILE LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ONCE AGAIN IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN
   RESPONSE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SET UP BY A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
   OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

   ...PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
   AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS EAST OF THE AREA...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WILL YIELD 15-20 MPH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
   THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
   THE MID 70S F AND RH VALUES WILL APPROACH REGIONAL CRITICAL
   THRESHOLDS /I.E. 35 PERCENT/.  ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A HIGHER FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT IS THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT HAVE OCCURRED
   IN THE TWO-WEEK TIME FRAME PRIOR TO D2/FRI.  THIS MAY HAVE SOME
   IMPACT ON FUELS...BUT CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT FINER FUELS MAY
   BE DRY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. 
   THIS REGION WILL BE MONITORED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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