ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 121636
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014
VALID 121700Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL RANGES/FOOTHILLS OF SRN
CA...
THE ONLY SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS TO ADD AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR ALL OF CNTRL NEB SWD INTO
N-CNTRL KS. RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP MODEL SHOW MIN RH FALLING INTO
THE 18-22 PERCENT RANGE FROM THE NEB SANDHILLS INTO N-CNTRL KS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OVERLAP THIS REGION AND CO-LOCATE
WITH STEEP SURFACE-H7 LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8 DEG C PER KM. LATE
MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RAP SOUNDING DATA ALIGN WELL AND
THE RAP SEEMINGLY PROVIDES THE BEST MODEL PROXY FOR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
..SMITH.. 03/12/2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0302 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014/
...SYNOPSIS...
A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SWWD FROM THE WRN GREAT BASIN INTO SRN
CA...WITH NRN STREAM WLYS SHUNTED WELL N INTO SRN CANADA AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE WRN CONUS. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT
BASIN...AND CONTINUE TO FAVOR OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS SRN CA...WHERE
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FARTHER
E...A COLD FRONT SURGING SWD ACROSS NRN MEX AND THE WRN GULF
BASIN...WITH NLY WINDS STRENGTHENING IN ITS WAKE ACROSS TX.
...SRN CA...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NELY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. OBSERVATIONS FROM 07Z SHOW LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RH /15-20 PERCENT/ ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...WHILE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RH RECOVERY IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATION BASINS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE /SUSTAINED 20-40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS/ THROUGH
LATE MORNING...WHILE DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING YIELDS RH VALUES FALLING
TO 8-15 PERCENT ACROSS A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA. THE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER RISK APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED FROM SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ESEWD
INTO WRN RIVERSIDE COUNTY...WHILE SURROUNDING AREAS ARE MORE LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE INTERIOR WRN CONUS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A SUBSEQUENT RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. CRITICAL
POTENTIAL SHOULD BECOME MORE LOCALIZED OVERNIGHT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS.
...CNTRL TX SWD TO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF CNTRL/S TX...RANGING FROM 20-25 MPH...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL
BE DECENT AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM THE N...BUT DIURNAL
HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL YIELD RH VALUES FALLING TO
20-25 PERCENT. WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST RH VALUES ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETELY IN PHASE...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE STILL PROBABLE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 120805
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AN INITIALLY CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE AND
EJECT EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A
SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE
APPALACHIANS/CNTRL GULF COAST. SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CNTRL CONUS...BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
MINIMAL...RESULTING IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS.
...PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
A BROAD INCREASE IN S-SSWLY FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL
CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF A COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE NRN PLAINS...AND ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS
APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED FROM W TX NNEWD INTO CNTRL KS...WHERE SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH APPEAR PROBABLE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 F WITHIN A DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL
YIELD WIDESPREAD RH VALUES OF 15-20 PERCENT.
..ROGERS.. 03/12/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
