Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 18,257 256,103 Pueblo, CO...Fountain, CO...Fort Morgan, CO...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   FNUS21 KWNS 221537

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1037 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

   Valid 221700Z - 231200Z


   ...Portions of Eastern Colorado...

   The critical fire weather area has been expanded north and eastward
   this update to account for latest HRRR wind/RH guidance and surface
   observation trends this morning. RH values are expected to fall into
   the 12-15 percent range in the critical area with sustained wind
   speeds in the 20-30 mph range with higher gusts for several hours
   this afternoon. 

   The surrounding elevated area from portions of central NM into the
   central High Plains has been adjusted only slightly.  See previous
   discussion below for more details.

   ..Leitman.. 09/22/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/

   A large-scale upper trough will make only slow eastward progress
   across the western CONUS today, while upper ridging remains over
   much of the central and eastern states. At the surface, a weak low
   will develop northeastward across the northern Plains today, while a
   second area of low pressure redevelops across eastern CO. A surface
   trough/dryline will extend southward from the low over eastern CO
   across the central/southern High Plains.

   ...Portions of the Central/Southern High Plains...
   Strong 40-50 kt mid-level southwesterly winds will be present across
   much of the High Plains today in association with the previously
   mentioned upper trough over the western CONUS. As diurnal mixing of
   the boundary layer occurs, a broad corridor of strong/gusty surface
   winds will develop this afternoon from portions of the Southwest
   into the eastern Great Basin, central/southern Rockies, and adjacent
   High Plains. Sustained south-southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph will
   likely occur, with higher gusts possible, particularly in higher
   terrain. RH values will become lowered mainly into the 15-25% range
   through downslope warming/drying of low levels along/behind a
   surface trough/dryline. Latest short-term guidance suggests these
   lowered RH values will likely occur across parts of NM, and the
   ongoing elevated area has been extended southward to account for
   this risk. A small area of critical conditions now appears likely
   across parts of southeastern CO for a few hours this afternoon where
   RH values will fall into the 12-15% range. Coupled with receptive
   fuels, these forecast meteorological conditions warrant the
   introduction of a small critical area across parts of southeastern

   ...Please see for graphic product...

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   FNUS22 KWNS 220635

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0135 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z


   A large-scale upper trough/low centered over the Great Basin will
   continue to move slowly eastward across the western CONUS on Day
   2/Saturday. An upper ridge will persist over much of the eastern
   CONUS. While enhanced mid-level winds will remain present over
   portions of the Southwest into the High Plains Saturday afternoon,
   RH values behind a surface cold front are generally expected to
   remain above critical levels. Locally elevated fire weather
   conditions may occur across parts of northern AZ and southeastern UT
   where RH values could become lowered near 20% in conjunction with
   strong/gusty surface winds. However, only marginally receptive to
   unreceptive fuels across this region and cooler temperatures behind
   the surface cold front preclude the introduction of an elevated area
   at this time.

   ..Gleason.. 09/22/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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