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FNUS21 KWNS 221640
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
VALID 221700Z - 231200Z
THE ONLY CHANGE THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS MODIFY THE AREAL BOUNDS OF
THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA FROM CA NEWD INTO ID/MT.
...NERN CA / SERN ORE / NWRN AND N-CNTRL NV / CNTRL AND SWRN ID /
FAR SWRN MT...
BASED ON MORNING AREA RAOBS AND OBSERVED PW SENSOR DATA...HAVE
REMOVED THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA DUE
TO THE PROPENSITY FOR WETTING RAINS WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF NWRN NV
NEWD INTO SWRN ID INTO THE DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST AND SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BE DRIER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NWRN GREAT BASIN WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE GREATEST.
..SMITH.. 07/22/2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0314 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL BUILD NWD /INTO THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS/ AND WWD /INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN/ THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DAMPEN THE NERN PORTION OF THIS UPPER HIGH WHILE AN
UPPER LOW MOVING WWD ALONG THE GULF COAST IMPINGES ON THE HIGH/S
SEWD EXTENT. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SEWD TOWARDS THE
SRN BC/NRN WA COAST. ENHANCED SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
THIS UPPER LOW AND THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER SE...ROUGHLY FROM CNTRL CA
NEWD INTO NWRN MT.
...EXTREME E-CNTRL CA...CNTRL/NE NV...FAR WRN UT...
DESPITE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S /AT
OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AMIDST A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BY THE MID-AFTERNOON. AFOREMENTIONED
ENHANCED SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH /GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH/ AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS WILL
RESULT IN AN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...FAR N-CNTRL CA...CNTRL/NE ORE...FAR SE WA...CNTRL/SW ID...
TWO DIFFERENT MECHANISMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE FROM FAR N-CNTRL CA NEWD THROUGH CNTRL MT
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
TSTM ACTIVITY...FORCED MAINLY BY DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT...WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. HIGHEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL ORE. MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WET BUT
FAST STORM MOTIONS /OVER 25 KT/ AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED DRY TSTMS. EVEN IF STORMS ARE WET...COVERAGE OF
WETTING RAINS WILL BE LOW AND LIGHTNING AMIDST DRY TO VERY DRY FUELS
WILL POSE A RISK FOR LIGHTNING-CAUSED IGNITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE
FIRE WEATHER THREAT...SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME
ROTATING TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SVR WIND AND
HAIL -- SEE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR MORE DETAILS.
A SECOND ROUND OF TSTMS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER ERN ORE
AND CNTRL/SRN ID...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
REGION WITHIN THE ENHANCED SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY WET TSTMS ARE
AGAIN ANTICIPATED BUT SOME DRY TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING AMIDST
DRY FUELS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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FNUS22 KWNS 221856
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
NO CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
..SMITH.. 07/22/2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0316 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TOWARDS THE NRN
ROCKIES. UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND COVERING
MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST STATES WILL REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE
WITH SOME DAMPENING OF ITS NRN EXTENT EXPECTED AS THE PACIFIC NW
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EWD. FARTHER E...TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER
WITH ERN CONUS WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES WWD ALONG THE WRN
GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT LIKELY EXTENDING FROM
NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
...MUCH OF NV...FAR WRN UT...ERN WA/ORE...SRN ID...SWRN WY...
SWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE CNTRL ROCKIES HIGH AND THE PACIFIC NW
UPPER LOW /FROM NE CA NEWD INTO SRN ALBERTA/ WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EWD...SUPPORTING
SUSTAINED SWLY AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY WARM BUT THE
AIRMASS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MIN RH VALUES AROUND 20
PERCENT ACROSS SE ORE...NRN NV...SRN ID..AND SWRN WY. SLIGHTLY LOWER
RH VALUES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL NV. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
ACROSS E-CNTRL/NE ORE AND ERN WA...DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL SUPPORT
SUSTAINED WLY WIND FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. THE AIRMASS HERE WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY DRY /RH VALUES ABOVE 3O PERCENT/ BUT THE STRENGTH OF
THE WINDS AMIDST DRY TO VERY DRY FUELS WILL STILL PROMOTE AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
