Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Extreme 73,008 1,377,165 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Hobbs, NM...
Critical 96,678 1,961,835 El Paso, TX...Abilene, TX...Lawton, OK...San Angelo, TX...Enid, OK...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 280758

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

   Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
   NEW MEXICO...FAR WEST TEXAS...THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND
   FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
   SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...

   ...Synopsis...
   As a mid-level shortwave trough rapidly transits eastward across the
   Desert Southwest, a strong southwesterly jet maximum will develop
   from northern Mexico northeastward to the mid Mississippi Valley. In
   response, a surface cold front will advance southeastward across the
   Plains states through the period. Along this front, one cyclone will
   rapidly transit northeastward into the Great Lakes region, while
   another will deepen slightly as it progresses east across far
   northern Oklahoma.

   ...Dangerous fire-weather conditions to develop across parts of the
   southern Plains today...

   With a 60-70 kt 700-mb jet core positioned from southern New Mexico
   to northern Oklahoma by mid-day, deep diurnal mixing will encourage
   very strong winds across much of the region. A corridor of 30-45 mph
   sustained southwesterly winds is expected to materialize across
   eastern NM, western TX, the TX Panhandle, and far western OK by
   afternoon. Additionally, gusts of 55-65 mph will be possible in this
   corridor. 00Z AMA/MAF soundings depict a very dry tropospheric
   profile already established, such that the onset of deep mixing and
   strong downslope flow later today will lead to RH values falling to
   around 8-13 percent. In tandem with dry fuels, these meteorological
   conditions will create extremely critical concerns, characterized by
   very rapid and erratic fire spread behavior. 

   Surrounding the extremely critical area, critical concerns are
   anticipated from portions of southern NM northeastward to
   south-central Kansas. Within this area, strong westerly winds near
   30-45 mph sustained and RH values around 15-20 percent will enhance
   the fire spread potential across southern/eastern NM into the OK
   panhandle. Across the TX Rolling Plains, west-central OK, and
   southern KS, southwesterly winds around 20-30 mph and RH values near
   12-25 percent can be expected.

   While RH values will begin to increase with the late afternoon /
   evening passage of a cold front across southwest Kansas, the TX/OK
   panhandles, and northwest OK, the rapid shift of wind direction to
   the north will complicate ongoing firefighting efforts.

   ...Portions of eastern Kansas into Missouri...
   The elevated area is also expanded northeastward to include eastern
   Kansas and west-central Missouri. Recent guidance suggests dry air
   should overspread the area today, such that diurnal mixing results
   in RH values near 20-35 percent. Stout southwesterly winds near
   20-30 mph and dry fuels will combine with dry conditions to produce
   elevated/locally critical concerns.

   ..Picca.. 02/28/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 280759

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0159 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A larger-scale mid/upper-level trough will gradually progress from
   the Plains states to the eastern US Wednesday, as a strong
   southwesterly jet materializes across parts of the Ohio Valley and
   northern Appalachians. Along the western periphery of the trough, a
   corridor of enhanced northwesterly flow will exist from the northern
   Rockies southeastward to the central Plains. At the surface, an
   elongated low will rapidly advance northeast along the St. Lawrence
   River Valley. To its west, high pressure will build into much of the
   Plains.

   ...Portions of the central/southern Plains...
   Despite cold-air advection in a north/northwesterly flow regime,
   temperatures will still climb into the 50s and 60s across OK and
   north TX, and into the 70s to lower 80s across far south TX. The
   post-frontal air mass will be characterized by precipitable-water
   values around 0.15-0.3 inches across most of the region. As a
   result, diurnal mixing will lead to minimum RH values around 15-25
   percent as well. Considering ongoing dry fuels (and the potential
   for ample pre-conditioning the day prior), these meteorological
   conditions should result in elevated/locally critical concerns from
   Kansas southward to the Rio Grande. Moreover, portions of OK and
   southern KS may require an upgrade to critical in later updates.

   ..Picca.. 02/28/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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