Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 69,532 1,263,025 El Paso, TX...Las Cruces, NM...Roswell, NM...Alamogordo, NM...Socorro, TX...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   FNUS21 KWNS 200648

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0148 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z


   An upper low will move slowly eastward across the Four Corners
   region and vicinity through this evening. A strong 70-85+ kt
   mid-level jet associated with the upper low will overspread the
   southern High Plains and southern NM/AZ through peak heating this
   afternoon. At the surface, an area of low pressure should also
   develop slowly eastward across CO today, with a composite
   front/dryline extending southward from this low across the southern
   High Plains. As this front/dryline develops eastward across NM and
   far west TX this afternoon, elevated to critical conditions are
   expected in its wake.

   ...Portions of the Southwest and Southern High Plains...
   A very dry low-level airmass well sampled by the 00Z soundings from
   Tucson, AZ and Albuquerque, NM will spread eastward behind a cold
   front/dryline across parts of southern/central/eastern NM and far
   west TX later this morning and afternoon. Even though surface
   temperatures will remain somewhat cooler across most of this region,
   a deeply mixed boundary layer coupled with the dry low-level airmass
   already mentioned will support critically lowered RH values of
   5-15%. Mixing of enhanced mid-level winds to the surface along with
   a strong surface pressure gradient will result in sustained westerly
   winds of 20-30 mph, with higher gusts likely, especially in higher
   terrain such as the Guadalupe Mountains. These meteorological
   conditions coupled with dry to very dry fuels warrant the
   continuation of the critical area for parts of NM into far west TX.

   High-end critical conditions appear probable just behind the
   front/dryline passage, and sustained winds may briefly reach 30-35
   mph in combination with RH values below 10%. However, these
   conditions are currently expected to occur on an isolated basis for
   only an hour or two. Therefore, an extremely critical risk area has
   not been introduced. The eastern extent of the elevated and critical
   delineations has been adjusted slightly to account for the most
   likely position of the front/dryline late this afternoon. Also,
   isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to initiate along
   the front/dryline today, but they are not expected to greatly
   overlap elevated/critical conditions as they develop
   east-northeastward into a relatively more moist low-level
   environment. Therefore, an isolated dry thunderstorm area does not
   appear warranted across any part of the southern High Plains at this

   ..Gleason.. 04/20/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   FNUS22 KWNS 200650

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0150 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   An upper trough will continue eastward across the southern/central
   Plains on Day 2/Saturday, with enhanced mid-level winds confined to
   mainly parts of the southern Plains. A surface low is forecast to
   develop from west TX to the vicinity of southern OK/north TX through
   Saturday evening as a trailing cold front moves eastward across the
   TX Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. A secondary, reinforcing cold
   front attendant to this low should move southward across the
   southern High Plains through the period.

   ...Portions of Far Southern NM to the Edwards Plateau of TX...
   Behind the initial cold front passage but ahead of the reinforcing
   cold front, elevated conditions are expected Saturday afternoon for
   parts of far southern NM into west TX, including the Edwards Plateau
   region. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph should become common along with
   RH values lowered into generally the 10-20% range. Spotty
   precipitation associated with isolated thunderstorms may occur
   along/ahead of the front for parts of this region on Day 1/Friday.
   Latest short-term guidance continues to suggest the overall coverage
   of this precipitation will likely remain too isolated to reduce fuel
   receptiveness on a widespread basis. The lack of even stronger
   forecast winds precludes the introduction of a critical area.

   ..Gleason.. 04/20/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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