Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 301645

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1145 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

   VALID 301700Z - 311200Z

   NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. BORDERLINE-
   CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   S-CNTRL/SWRN MT INTO PARTS OF SERN ID INCLUDING THE SNAKE RIVER
   PLAIN...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY MORE THAN BRIEF/SPOTTY OCCURRENCES
   OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS TOO LOW FOR CRITICAL DESIGNATION. ALSO OF
   NOTE...WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO WLY/NWLY AND POTENTIALLY
   STRENGTHEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOLLOWING THE
   PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON ONGOING FIRES.

   ..COHEN.. 08/30/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0330 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WRN
   CANADIAN PROVINCES EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY
   THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE EWD TODAY...REACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
   AND SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BY EARLY MON MORNING. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
   WILL ALSO MOVE EWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION/ONTARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER
   RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BECOMES SUPPRESSED WITH THE TROUGH
   PASSING TO THE N. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH TRAILING
   COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL
   ALSO MOVE EWD OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN...PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL
   ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...AND
   GREAT BASIN...
   BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE...STRONG/GUSTY DOWNSLOPE
   WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
   ROCKIES AND ADJACENT NRN HIGH PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENHANCED
   SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. WHILE SFC TEMPERATURES
   WILL LIKELY BE COOL THIS MORNING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...DOWNSLOPE
   WARMING/DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LOWER RH VALUES TO 20-25
   PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS
   AREA. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED...GENERALLY WET THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR FOR
   N-CNTRL/CNTRL MT THIS AFTERNOON...THE EXPECTED COMBINATION OF
   WIND/RH VALUES SUPPORTS THE ELEVATED DESIGNATION FOR MUCH OF
   CNTRL/SWRN MT...ERN ID...AND FAR NWRN WY...WITH LOCALLY CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN ERN ID AND S-CNTRL MT.

   FURTHER S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND MUCH OF
   WY...MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE GENERALLY WEAKER TODAY...AROUND 20-40
   KT. REGARDLESS...AS DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINES
   WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SOME OF THESE WINDS ALOFT MAY BE PROMOTED TO
   THE SFC...AND AREAS OF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS MAY ALIGN WITH RH VALUES
   APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
   ADJUSTED THE SRN ELEVATED AREA TO REMOVE A PORTION OF UT AND NWRN
   CO...WHERE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED...AND FORECAST
   WINDS/RH NO LONGER SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. 

   SIMILAR TO THE NRN ELEVATED AREA...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
   CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
   BASIN INTO WY...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF WET/DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN FORECAST AND OBSERVED PWAT VALUES. AN ISOLATED
   DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS THEREFORE BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF WY...WHERE A WELL-MIXED/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...FAST STORM
   MOTIONS...AND DRY FUELS COULD SUPPORT NEW FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING
   STRIKES.

   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
   INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.
   LOWERED RH VALUES NEAR/BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE
   STRONG FORECAST WINDS WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE
   WEATHER AREA...BUT GENERALLY UNRECEPTIVE FUELS ACROSS THIS REGION
   SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT...AND THEREFORE NO
   ELEVATED AREA IS WARRANTED.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 301929

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

   ..COHEN.. 08/30/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0330 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS AN UPPER TROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE D2/MON PERIOD LIFTS FROM
   THE NRN PLAINS INTO CANADA...A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
   REMAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE NRN TIER OF STATES WITHIN THE CONUS.
   UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL/ERN STATES. AT THE
   SFC...LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE
   WILL LIKEWISE MOVE NEWD INTO MANITOBA/ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
   A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING EWD/SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...BREEZY POST-FRONTAL WINDS AROUND
   10-15 MPH ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS DO NOT ALIGN WITH RH VALUES LOW
   ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER AREA. ELSEWHERE...
   LOCALIZED ELEVATED CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN
   WY MON AFTERNOON...BUT THE BRIEF/SPOTTY NATURE OF STRONG FORECAST
   WINDS PRECLUDES AN ELEVATED DESIGNATION.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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