Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 18,599 984,383 Billings, MT...Roanoke, VA...Lynchburg, VA...Harrisonburg, VA...Charlottesville, VA...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 311616

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1116 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

   VALID 311700Z - 011200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL MT...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL VA...

   ...PIEDMONT REGION...
   14-15Z SFC OBS ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE RH VALUES ARE ALREADY
   FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL VA THIS MORNING.
   WITH FURTHER DIURNAL MIXING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SWLY FLOW AHEAD
   OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL REACH 15-25 MPH /WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS/...WHILE RH VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE. THE BEST OVERLAP OF
   STRONGER FLOW AND LOW RH VALUES /I.E. LESS THAN 25 PERCENT/ IS
   LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS AND
   SHENANDOAH VALLEY. AS SUCH...A CRITICAL DELINEATION HAS BEEN
   INTRODUCED FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
   MADE TO THE ELEVATED DELINEATION...EXCEPT FOR REMOVING MOST OF MD TO
   ACCOUNT FOR RELATIVELY UNRECEPTIVE FUELS /UPON COLLABORATION WITH
   LWX/.

   ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   A CRITICAL DELINEATION HAS BEEN ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL
   MT...AS MORNING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED W/SWLY
   LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC
   TROUGH. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW/DEEP DIURNAL MIXING ESTABLISHED...WINDS
   WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH /WITH HIGHER GUSTS/ WHILE RH VALUES WILL
   FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT. ELSEWHERE...NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE MADE TO
   THE ELEVATED AREA...EXCEPT FOR REMOVING MOST OF CO AS WINDS WILL
   LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT...AND ADDING MORE OF CNTRL NE WHERE WINDS WILL
   APPROACH 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..PICCA.. 03/31/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0353 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE
   NRN-STREAM. WRN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW
   AND NRN ROCKIES WHILE THE ERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY FROM
   THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES SEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
   OFF THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO
   FEATURES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE CNTRL BAJA PENINSULA EWD ACROSS
   CNTRL MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. FARTHER E...LOW
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
   AROUND 00Z/WED WHILE A RIDGE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MS AND
   TN VALLEYS.  

   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
   DURING THE DAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. THESE
   WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH EXPECTED LEE TROUGHING AND
   DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN NEAR-RECORD HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE
   REGION /HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S/ WITH MIN RH
   VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT LIKELY. IN AREAS WHERE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS ARE
   MAXIMIZED -- I.E. DOWNWIND OF THE ABSAROKAS...LARAMIES..AND BIGHORNS
   -- SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
   CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE WITHIN THE
   SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WITH WINDS RELATIVELY MODEST AS A RESULT. WHILE
   ISOLATED LOCATIONS -- PARTICULARLY AROUND BIL -- MAY SEE WINDS
   INCREASE ABOVE 20 MPH...WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   AROUND 10-15 MPH. THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IN CONCERT WITH
   DRY FUELS WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT.

   ...PIEDMONT...
   MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY REGARDING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   WITH RESULTANT DISPARITY IN MIN RH VALUES. THE RAP
   CHARACTERISTICALLY SUGGESTS THE LOWEST VALUES WITH MIN RH BELOW 20
   PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE PIEDMONT. NEITHER THE NAM NOR
   THE GFS ARE THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH MIN RH VALUES WITH VALUES PROGGED
   TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT. SREF GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIMILAR FORECAST
   WITH ALL MEMBERS KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION AT OR ABOVE 30 PERCENT.
   A SLIGHTLY DRIER FORECAST IS FAVORED WITH MIN RH THROUGHOUT THE AREA
   EXPECTED BETWEEN 25 TO 30 PERCENT. SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
   AROUND 20 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THE RESULTANT COMBINATION OF DRY
   FUELS...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW RH VALUES FAVORING AN ELEVATED TO
   LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. AN UPGRADE TO CRITICAL MAY BE
   NEEDED DURING THE DAY IF CONFIDENCE IN RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT
   INCREASES. 

   ...GREAT BASIN...
   WINDS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH
   20-25 MPH AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
   COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED
   TO BE IN THE 70S /15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE/ WITH MANY AREAS
   EXPERIENCING RH VALUES LESS THAN 15 PERCENT. DESPITE THESE CRITICAL
   METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...UNRECEPTIVE FUELS WILL KEEP ANY FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT LOW WITH ONLY LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS
   ANTICIPATED.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 189,498 2,057,310 Albuquerque, NM...Amarillo, TX...Billings, MT...Rio Rancho, NM...Rapid City, SD...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 311855

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0155 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS
   REGION...

   NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK...AS AN
   EXPANSIVE AREA OF ENHANCED FLOW AND LOW RH VALUES IS LIKELY TO EXIST
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.

   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   THE CRITICAL DELINEATION WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO INDICATE THE
   GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHTER WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH
   AXIS/SFC LOW. AS SUCH...PORTIONS OF THE OK PANHANDLE/FAR SWRN KS
   WERE REMOVED. ADDITIONALLY...THE WRN EDGE OF THE DELINEATION WAS
   SHIFTED NW SLIGHTLY...AS AN OVERLAP OF STRONG WINDS/LOW RH
   VALUES/DRY FUELS SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
   ACROSS CNTRL/NE NM.

   ...FOUR CORNERS REGION...
   EXTENDED THE DELINEATION FARTHER NORTHEAST TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF
   FAR SWRN CO AS LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FUELS ARE DRY ENOUGH TO WORK
   IN CONCERT WITH WINDY/WARM METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE A
   CRITICAL THREAT FARTHER NE.

   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   NO CHANGES WERE MADE AS MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUPPORTS PREVIOUS
   DELINEATION.

   ...SRN CA...
   LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN
   THE PERIOD AND AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD IN THE VICINITY OF THE SANTA
   YNEZ MTNS/SANTA BARBARA COAST...AS A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND
   SOME MID/UPPER SUPPORT YIELD ENHANCED NLY SFC FLOW.
   ADDITIONALLY...RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 15-20 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
   IN TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS. WHILE LIVE FUEL MOISTURE GUIDANCE
   CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT FUELS ARE RELATIVELY UNRECEPTIVE...AN
   ELEVATED DELINEATION MAY BE NECESSARY IF CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER
   WINDS INCREASES.

   ..PICCA.. 03/31/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0423 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE NRN-STREAM...FEATURING A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN...
   IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD OVER THE NRN
   2/3RDS OF THE CONUS. THE ERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
   OFF THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH UPSTREAM
   RIDGING MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. THE WRN SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CANADIAN
   PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NRN PLAINS. ENHANCED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL EXTEND FROM CNTRL WY NEWD INTO
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
   AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TX AND THE LWR MS VALLEY. AT THE
   SURFACE...LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS
   WITH CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER.
   SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE NRN
   PLAINS AS A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   DEEPENS ACROSS CNTRL MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. 

   ...NRN PLAINS...
   A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE IN
   THE DAY 1 PERIOD. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT
   COOLER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. AIRMASS ACROSS THE
   REGION WILL REMAIN DRY AND...IN CONCERT WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND
   DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES FROM 15 TO 25
   PERCENT. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN TIGHT WITH STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
   FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE REGION AS WELL. THESE FEATURES IN TANDEM WITH
   BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL PUSH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER 25 MPH
   FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OVER 30 MPH
   ANTICIPATED OVER MT. WIND GUSTS WILL TOP 40 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF
   THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE
   AREA OF AT LEAST ELEVATED CONDITIONS WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS LIKELY
   ACROSS S-CNTRL/SE MT...SW/S-CNTRL ND...AND NW/N-CNTRL SD. THE FACTOR
   PRECLUDING CRITICAL CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE CRITICAL AREA IS RH
   VALUES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE 20 PERCENT WHILE WEAKER WINDS
   PRECLUDED THE INCLUSION OF AREAS TO THE SOUTH. 

   ...SOUTHWEST...SRN PLAINS...SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   DEEPENING LEE LOW OVER THE CNTRL CO/KS BORDER WILL HELP INCREASE THE
   SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
   FOR STRONG WINDS PROVIDED BY INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
   STRONGEST WINDS -- SUSTAINED OVER 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH --
   ARE EXPECTED OVER NE AZ WHERE THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER FLOW WILL
   EXIST. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
   GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.  A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL
   SUPPORT MIN RH VALUES FROM THE LOW TEENS TO LOW 20S AS TEMPERATURES
   CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. A FEW AREAS IN THE TX/OK
   PANHANDLES MAY EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WITH MIN RH VALUES IN
   THE SINGLE DIGITS. 

   COMBINATION OF THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND MODERATELY DRY
   FUELS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NE
   AZ AND FROM E-CNTRL NM NEWD INTO FAR SW KS WHERE THE CONFIDENCE IN
   WINDS OVER 20 MPH AND RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT IS HIGHEST. THE
   FACTOR PRECLUDING CRITICAL ACROSS MUCH OF AZ AND NM WAS ANTICIPATED
   MIN RH VALUES ABOVE 15 PERCENT WHILE WINDS BELOW 20 MPH PRECLUDED
   THE INCLUSION OF THE TRANS-PECOS OR CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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