Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 70,136 2,699,528 El Paso, TX...Wichita, KS...Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Altus, OK...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 161628

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1128 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

   VALID 161700Z - 171200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH
   TEXAS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST AZ...SOUTHWEST AND
   S-CENTRAL NM...FAR SOUTHWEST TX...

   SOME ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CRITICAL AREAS BASED ON
   CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION AND 12Z MODEL
   GUIDANCE.  OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING IS ON TRACK. PLEASE
   SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

   ..LEITMAN.. 04/16/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0349 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
   TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CNTRL
   PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF
   THE SRN ROCKIES...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS.

   ...AZ...NM...FAR W TX...
   MODERATE WLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS TO
   PRODUCE ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. FOR THE CRITICAL AREA FROM ERN AZ/WRN NM INTO
   FAR W TX...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH EXPECTED AS RH VALUES DROP
   TO 5-15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. SURROUNDING THIS AREA...SOMEWHAT
   LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED...BUT VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL STILL
   SUPPORT ELEVATED CONDITIONS.

   ...CNTRL/W TX NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...
   ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE DRY
   LOW-LEVEL JET REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF CNTRL/W
   TX INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL DEVELOP
   THIS MORNING ACROSS THIS AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   DAY...THOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE
   EXTENT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY BE DETERMINED BY THE
   COVERAGE OF CRITICAL RH. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT TENDENCY FOR
   MOST MODEL GUIDANCE TO BE TOO MOIST IN THESE TYPES OF REGIMES...THE
   GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL RH CURRENTLY RUNS
   FROM PARTS OF NW TX NEWD INTO S-CNTRL KS. BORDERLINE CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS MAY EXTEND FURTHER NORTHEAST...BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
   IN RH AND HEAVIER RECENT RAINFALL COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER TO THE
   SOUTHWEST...ONLY AN ELEVATED DESIGNATION WILL BE MADE IN THIS AREA.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 161726

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1226 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   NO CHANGES NEEDED.

   ..LEITMAN.. 04/16/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0350 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
   THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WRN CONUS. AT THE
   SURFACE...MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
   PRESSURE...WITH AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN PLAINS SEEING
   GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS AND LESS DRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIMIT
   THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVERALL. INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
   UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS OVER SRN/CNTRL
   NV IN AREAS WHERE DRY FUELS ARE AVAILABLE...BUT THIS THREAT APPEARS
   TOO MARGINAL AT THIS TIME FOR ANY DELINEATION.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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