Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 201658

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1058 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

   Valid 201700Z - 211200Z

   Recent observations from surface, satellite, and radar data suggest
   the cold front has already progressed through much of the Texas
   Panhandle -- including portions of the Elevated fire weather area
   over the southern High Plains. The areas behind the front, as well
   as those that are expected to be behind it shortly, have been
   removed from the Elevated area, since cooler air will help temper
   large-scale fire weather conditions there. While guidance continues
   to poorly capture the forward progression of the shallow front
   (being much slower than what has been observed), the ongoing drought
   over the area supports a slightly less aggressive approach to
   removing areas. Thus, if frontal progression continues to exceed
   expectations, than portions of the Elevated area -- especially those
   along its northeastern/eastern periphery -- may not experience
   Elevated fire weather conditions. The front is expected to shift
   westward through much of the Elevated area by this evening, which
   could complicate any ongoing fire fighting efforts as winds abruptly
   shift from westerly/southwesterly to easterly/northeasterly. See
   previous discussion below for more information.

   ..Elliott.. 02/20/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level trough will weaken over the West today as a midlevel
   speed max ejects downstream toward the upper Mississippi Valley.  At
   the surface, a low pressure system near the Great Lakes will lift
   northeastward while an associated cold front slowly advances
   southeastward across the middle Mississippi Valley.  Farther
   southwest, a dryline will sharpen from northern Texas to the Big
   Bend region.

   ...Portions of the Southern High Plains...
   Despite weakening flow aloft throughout the day, sufficient flow
   will linger to support sustained afternoon surface winds of 15-20
   mph across much of the region.  Westerly downslope flow (west of the
   dryline and ahead of the advancing cold front) will also support
   warming/drying at the surface, leading to RH values falling to near
   20%.  These meteorological conditions will support elevated fire
   weather concerns given the ongoing drought and dry fuels.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 201827

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1227 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. See previous
   discussion below for more information.

   ..Elliott.. 02/20/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move along the
   California coast on Wednesday morning and into the Southwest by
   Wednesday evening to reinforce the western U.S. trough, supporting
   continued southwesterly flow aloft over the central CONUS.  In the
   wake of surface cold frontal passage across the plains, high
   pressure will move eastward toward the Mississippi Valley.  Overall,
   the lack of strong winds and relatively cool/moist conditions over
   much of the CONUS will limit fire weather concerns on Wednesday.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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