Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 19,572 118,262 Mitchell, SD...Pierre, SD...Huron, SD...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 201632

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1132 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

   VALID 201700Z - 211200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL SD...

   ...PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS...
   SUSTAINED NWLY WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO APPROACH 30 MPH
   WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES TO AROUND 700MB
   THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION -- 12Z SOUNDING DATA
   FROM BIS AND ABR REPORTED PW VALUES OF 0.08 AND 0.18
   INCH...RESPECTIVELY -- WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT
   DESPITE TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 50S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
   -- MID TO UPPER 50S -- ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL SD WITH
   RESULTANT RH VALUES APPROACHING 15 PERCENT. WHILE THE BELOW-AVERAGE
   TEMPERATURES MAY MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT SOMEWHAT...THE
   STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND RH VALUES APPROACHING 15 PERCENT IS
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
   UPGRADING PORTIONS OF CNTRL SD TO CRITICAL. ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS FAR ERN MT...
   WRN/CNTRL ND...THE PORTIONS OF SD NOT IN CRITICAL...FAR NERN
   NEB...AND A SMALL PORTION OF FAR NW IA.

   ..MOSIER.. 04/20/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0346 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN
   TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS...WITH A WEAK REX-BLOCK PATTERN ALONG THE
   WEST COAST. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
   FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO SRN ONTARIO AS IT OCCLUDES. IN ITS
   WAKE TO THE S/W...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE
   CANADIAN PRAIRIES SSE INTO TX.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS...
   THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL SUPPORT DEEP NWLY FLOW
   ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...AND WILL FEATURE AN ENHANCED CORRIDOR OF
   STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PERTURBATION DROPPING SOUTH
   FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO ND. DIURNAL HEATING WILL YIELD A
   WELL-MIXED/DEEP BL...FAVORING EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE
   SFC. AS SUCH...SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25-30 MPH /WITH HIGHER GUSTS/
   ARE FORECAST. FURTHERMORE...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE
   ESTABLISHED...WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.15-0.3 IN. IN RESPONSE...RH
   VALUES WILL QUICKLY FALL DURING THE DAY...RESULTING IN MIN VALUES
   AROUND 10-20 PERCENT. ADDITIONALLY...SOME /BUT NOT ALL/ REGIONAL
   FUELS REMAIN RECEPTIVE FOR FIRE SPREAD...AS THE NRN PLAINS HAVE NOT
   REALIZED THE HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE PAST
   SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS ARE CLOSE TO SUPPORTING A
   CRITICAL DELINEATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND/SD...MARGINAL TEMPS IN
   THE 40/50S AND THE PRESENCE OF SOME GREEN-UP WITH SHORTER GRASSES
   PRECLUDE ONE AT THIS TIME. THE PREVIOUS ELEVATED DELINEATION HAS
   BEEN MAINTAINED WITH ONLY MINOR EDITS...GENERALLY TO EXTEND IT N/W
   TO THE MT/CANADIAN BORDER...WHERE STRONG WINDS/LOW RH SEEM PROBABLE
   AS WELL.

   ELSEWHERE...SOME WEAK ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
   COLORADO PLATEAU WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH DIURNAL BL MIXING TO YIELD
   LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE-WX CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN AZ/NRN
   NM. HOWEVER...THE THREAT APPEARS TOO BRIEF/LOCALIZED FOR A
   DELINEATION AT THIS TIME.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 201649

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1149 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...PORTIONS OF THE MID/UPPER MO VALLEY...
   MODIFIED THE ELEVATED AREA OF THE REGION TO BETTER REFLECT THE MOST
   RECENT GUIDANCE BUT THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. COOL
   TEMPERATURES /LOW TO MID 50S/ CONTINUE TO BE THE FACTOR MOST
   PROHIBITIVE TO A GREATER FIRE WEATHER THREAT.  

   ...PORTIONS OF SERN AZ AND SWRN NM...
   ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL
   EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND
   80S...RH VALUES DROP BELOW 10 PERCENT...AND SWLY WINDS APPROACH
   15-20 MPH.

   ..MOSIER.. 04/20/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0347 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DEEP...EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER SRN/ERN
   ONTARIO...WITH SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY
   ALONG THE PLAINS...SOUTHEAST...AND EAST COAST. FARTHER WEST...A WEAK
   CLOSED LOW WILL PROGRESS ONSHORE SRN CA...WITH A RESULTANT PATTERN
   OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED DIFLUENT FLOW OVER AZ/NM. 

   THE SFC RESPONSE TO THESE FEATURES WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING
   EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE SERN STATES...WITH A LARGE
   OCCLUDED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OVER ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA
   OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. 

   ...PORTIONS OF THE MID/UPPER MO VALLEY...
   CONTINUING FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY...A DEEP CHANNEL OF ENHANCED NWLY
   FLOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
   MIDWEST. IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND A WELL-MIXED
   BL...THIS CORRIDOR OF STRONG FLOW WILL YIELD W/NWLY SUSTAINED SFC
   WINDS AROUND 20-30 MPH. FURTHERMORE...THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED
   SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL DRY AIR OVER THE
   REGION...WITH FCST PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.2-0.4 IN. THEREFORE...RH
   VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT /WITH SOME READINGS BELOW
   20 PERCENT/ ACROSS MUCH OF THE MO VALLEY AND SURROUNDING AREA.
   CONSIDERING THAT FINE FUELS WILL BE PRE-CONDITIONED VIA THE
   DRY/WINDY DAY PRIOR TO THE PERIOD...AN ELEVATED DELINEATION HAS BEEN
   INTRODUCED FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SERN SD...FAR NERN NE...AND NWRN
   IA.

   ...PORTIONS OF SERN AZ AND SWRN NM...
   A DRY AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES AOB 0.4 IN/ WILL BE
   POSITIONED OVER THE SWRN CONUS ON D2/TUE. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
   RESULT IN RH VALUES LIKELY FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS SOME MODEST ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW
   OCCURS...RESULTING FROM THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...ROBUST
   BL MIXING WILL FAVOR SWLY SFC WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15-20 MPH.
   IN COMBINATION WITH DRY FUELS...THESE CONDITIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
   AN ELEVATED FIRE-WX THREAT /WITH LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS/ AND A
   DELINEATION HAS BEEN INTRODUCED. FURTHERMORE...A CRITICAL AREA
   AROUND FAR SERN AZ/SWRN NM MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF CONFIDENCE IN
   STRONGER FLOW INCREASES.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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