Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   FNUS21 KWNS 220658

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   A highly amplified upper ridge over the western states will shift
   eastward to the High Plains today as an upper low moves
   northeastward from just off the coast of New England to the Canadian
   Maritimes. A shortwave trough over the eastern Pacific is forecast
   to develop eastward to southern CA and the adjacent Southwest
   through the period. West-southwesterly mid-level flow will increase
   this afternoon across much of the Southwest and adjacent
   southern/central High Plains ahead of the upper trough. A weak
   surface low is forecast to form over the central High Plains, with
   lee troughing becoming well defined over the southern High Plains.

   ...Portions of the Southwest into the Southern/Central High
   A modestly strengthening surface pressure gradient and increasing
   mid-level flow overspreading the southern/central High Plains will
   likely foster strong/gusty southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph
   across parts of southern AZ into southern/central/eastern NM, far
   west TX, southeastern CO this afternoon. An antecedent dry airmass
   is expected to remain over this region, and diurnal heating/mixing
   of the boundary layer will promote reductions of RH values generally
   into the 15-20% range for at least a few hours through peak heating.
   Guidance suggests fuels will remain dry and receptive to large fire
   starts, and elevated conditions should occur today. The forecast
   overlap of winds in excess of 20 mph and RH values below 15% appears
   too limited to include a critical delineation.

   ...Portions of the Southern FL Peninsula...
   A dry, post-frontal airmass will remain across the FL Peninsula
   today. Northerly winds around 10 mph will likely combine with RH
   values falling into the 25-35% range for at least a few hours.
   Portions of the southern FL Peninsula received a relative minimum of
   precipitation with the prior cold front passage, and fuels are
   generally dry/receptive across this area. Have therefore introduced
   a small elevated area across the southern FL Peninsula.

   ..Gleason.. 03/22/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 118,530 1,417,541 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Roswell, NM...Clovis, NM...Hobbs, NM...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   FNUS22 KWNS 220658

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z


   An upper ridge over the Plains Friday morning will be eroded as a
   shortwave trough moves eastward from the Southwest to the southern
   Plains through the day. 50-75 kt west-southwesterly mid-level winds
   associated with this shortwave trough will overspread the
   southern/central High Plains Friday afternoon. At the surface, a low
   should develop east-southeastward from eastern CO to central KS by
   Friday evening. A dryline extending southward from this low is
   forecast to mix eastward, likely reaching the vicinity of the TX/OK
   border by peak afternoon heating. A trailing Pacific cold front
   attendant to the surface low should sweep southeastward across the
   southern/central High Plains Friday evening/night.

   ...Portions of the Southwest into the Southern/Central High
   Strong/gusty west-southwesterly winds are expected to develop behind
   the eastward-mixing dryline across parts of the central and southern
   High Plains Friday morning/afternoon. Sustained winds of 20-35 mph
   appear likely across this region, with the strongest winds expected
   beneath the core of a mid-level jet moving over eastern NM and the
   TX/OK Panhandles. Higher gusts to 40-50 mph will also be possible.
   An already dry low-level airmass will be present behind the dryline,
   and downslope warming/drying of this airmass coupled with diurnal
   heating will easily support RH values becoming lowered into the
   10-15% range across parts of eastern NM/southeastern CO into
   southwestern KS, the TX/OK Panhandles, west TX, and western OK. With
   dry to very dry fuels present, a critical delineation remains across
   these areas.

   Some eastward expansion has been made to the critical area based off
   the forecast position of the dryline late Friday afternoon. High-end
   critical conditions may occur across parts of eastern NM into the
   TX/OK Panhandles where sustained winds exceed 30 mph and RH values
   approach 10%. Elevated conditions will likely occur across parts of
   the Southwest and a slightly larger portion of the southern/central
   High Plains, with RH values of 15-25% and/or slightly weaker
   sustained winds precluding an even larger critical area at this

   ...Portions of the FL Peninsula...
   A dry airmass will persist over much of the FL Peninsula on Day
   2/Friday. With strong diurnal heating expected, RH values should
   fall into the 20-35% range for a majority of this area. However,
   wind speeds are forecast to be generally weak (less than 10 mph),
   which precludes the inclusion of an elevated area at this time.

   ..Gleason.. 03/22/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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