Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 47,251 1,292,164 Laredo, TX...Mission, TX...Pharr, TX...Edinburg, TX...Del Rio, TX...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   FNUS21 KWNS 261640

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1140 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

   Valid 261700Z - 271200Z


   The critical area along the middle Rio Grande Valley has been
   expanded westward into the Big Bend region of TX. 16Z surface
   observations indicate elevated to borderline critical conditions are
   already occurring across this area along/ahead of a cold front. RH
   values will likely fall into the 10-15% range for a few hours this
   afternoon, and strong/gusty northwesterly winds of 20-25 mph will be

   A southeastward expansion into deep south TX has also been made to
   the critical delineation based on latest short-term guidance and
   fuel information. Across this region, sustained winds of 20-25 mph
   are expected as temperatures warm into the 90s/low 100s and RH
   values fall below 20%. Although green-up of most fuels has occurred
   across south TX, lack of recent precipitation has allowed fine fuels
   to become receptive to large fire starts.

   Across portions of eastern AZ into southern NM, locally critical
   fire weather conditions may occur, but only isolated/brief instances
   of sustained winds above 20 mph preclude a critical area with this

   An elevated area has been introduced across parts of the central FL
   peninsula per recent surface observations, short-term guidance, and
   fuel info. Although low-level flow is forecast to remain weak,
   sustained winds around 10 mph, RH values falling into the 30-40%
   range, and dry fuels due to persistent drought support the elevated

   ..Gleason.. 04/26/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/

   An intense mid/upper level trough over the southern High Plains will
   eject east across TX today to the mid-MS/lower OH River Valley by
   early Thursday morning. Strong deep-layer west/northwesterly flow
   will persist from the southwestern deserts into the southern Plains.
   While severe storms are expected across parts of the Ozarks and
   mid-to-lower MS Valley ahead of the trough, elevated to critical
   fire weather conditions are expected across much of AZ/NM and into
   parts of western and southern TX.

   ...Much of AZ/NM into western and southern TX...

   Widespread elevated to briefly critical conditions are expected
   across parts of central and eastern AZ into much of NM.  RH values
   will be low, from 10-20 percent and west to northwesterly surface
   winds will range from 15-20 mph with higher gusts. Concerns of
   longevity of critical conditions and spotty nature of the strongest
   wind speeds will preclude upgrades to critical across parts of
   southeast AZ/southwest NM into parts of east-central NM. 
   Additionally, uncertainty in available fuels exists across eastern
   NM due to ongoing green-up.

   Further southeast into western and southern TX, gusty winds will be
   enhanced as a cold front drops southward across central into
   southern TX during the afternoon. Northwesterly surface winds of
   20-25 mph with higher gusts are expected. As high temperatures warm
   into the mid 80s to mid 90s, RH values will fall into the 10-15
   percent range. Further south into south TX, there are concerns over
   fuel receptiveness and while gusty winds and low RH conditions will
   exist, will not upgrade this region given uncertainty in fuel

   ...Please see for graphic product...

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 90,962 2,239,855 El Paso, TX...Albuquerque, NM...Las Cruces, NM...Rio Rancho, NM...Roswell, NM...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   FNUS22 KWNS 261856

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0156 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z


   No substantial changes have been made to the critical area across
   parts of central/southern NM and far west TX or to the surrounding
   elevated area across portions of the Southwest and southern Plains.
   See the previous discussion below for more information.

   An elevated area has been introduced for portions of the FL
   peninsula. A modest strengthening of the surface pressure gradient
   across FL will occur through Thursday afternoon as a cold front
   moves across the Southeast. Southerly winds should increase to
   around 10 mph, locally higher, as RH values fall below 40%. Amidst
   dry fuels, these meteorological conditions will support an elevated
   fire weather threat.

   ..Gleason.. 04/26/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1232 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/

   The fire weather story remains much the same on Thursday as the
   previous few days. Strong west/northwesterly deep-layer flow will
   overspread much of the southern tier of the U.S. as a broad upper
   trough encompasses the middle of the CONUS. A strengthening surface
   low over the southern/central High Plains with higher pressure near
   the Pacific coast will result in a modest pressure gradient across
   the southwestern states to the southern High Plains. Gusty winds
   aligned with dry conditions will again lead to elevated to critical
   fire weather concerns across parts of AZ/NM and western TX.

   ...Portions of AZ, much of NM into western TX...

   Fuel conditions continue to add a question mark to the eastern
   extent of critical delineation.  Green-up continues across west TX
   into the eastern plains of NM. For now, highest confidence in the
   overlap of strong winds, low RH and at least areas of available
   fuels has been noted by the critical area across parts of the
   southern/central NM into far west TX. Here, westerly surface winds
   25-35 mph with higher gusts are expected and RH values falling into
   the 7-15 percent range are expected. These meteorological conditions
   will spread east into parts of the TX Panhandle and TX South Plains
   to the Concho Valley, but again, concerns over available fuels will
   preclude critical delineation here. 

   Further west across parts of northern and eastern AZ into northern
   NM, winds will be slightly lower and RH values will range from 15-25
   percent. Some spotty/brief critical conditions will be possible but
   less widespread compared to further east.

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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