ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 241508
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018
Valid 241700Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Locally elevated conditions (hot, dry, unstable, and breezy) are
likely to develop across most of Arizona and western New Mexico this
afternoon including in the vicinity of the Buzzard fire. Forecast
still looks on track and no changes are necessary. Please see
discussion below for more details.
..Nauslar.. 05/24/2018
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018/
...Synopsis...
Dry areas of the Southwest and southern Rockies will reside in
between two systems - one mid-level shortwave trough lifting
northeastward toward the northern Rockies and another closed low
just west of California. As a result, ridging will persist today
and result in a relative minimum of mid-level flow across much of
the western third of the CONUS. At the surface, a relatively weak
gradient will exist across the Southwest resulting from a weak
trough from Nevada southward through the Lower Colorado River
Valley. Areas of breezy (10-15 mph) southerly flow will exist from
southern Arizona into the Four Corners during peak heating today
amidst dry low-level conditions (critically low RH and dry
fuels/drought). Although locally elevated fire weather conditions
will exist across portions of the region, overall wind fields remain
a bit too weak to highlight any areas in the Southwest. Elsewhere,
moist fuels and relatively high RH will result in quiescent fire
weather conditions across the remainder of the CONUS.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 241734
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
Locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across far
southern Nevada/northwestern Arizona on Friday. However, these
conditions may be relatively brief (< 3 hours) and coverage limited.
Forecast still looks on track and no changes are necessary. Please
see discussion below for more details.
..Nauslar.. 05/24/2018
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018/
...Synopsis...
Flow aloft across the Southwest will increase in response to an
approaching mid-level low centered over California. As this occurs,
vertical mixing processes and a slight strengthening of the surface
pressure gradient across the Great Basin (compared to D1/Thu) will
result in enough flow for elevated fire weather conditions across
portions of the Southwest. Elsewhere, quiescent larger-scale fire
weather conditions are expected.
...Northern Arizona, southern Nevada, and southern Utah...
The aforementioned synoptic pattern will result in broad areas of
15-20 mph southwesterly surface flow developing by peak heating
across the region. Additionally, RH values will flirt with critical
thresholds across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona while
falling into single digits across northeastern Arizona and vicinity.
While a few areas of critical atmospheric conditions are expected,
these thresholds are currently expected to be met on too brief of a
basis to necessitate any critical headlines at this time. This
region will be re-evaluated in later outlooks.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
