Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 65,079 644,452 Flagstaff, AZ...Gallup, NM...Tuba City, AZ...Show Low, AZ...Chinle, AZ...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 251650

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1150 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

   VALID 251700Z - 261200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AZ...NWRN NM...EXTREME SRN
   NV...

   ...NRN AZ...NWRN NM...EXTREME SRN NV...
   NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING CRITICAL AREA...AS LOW-END
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WITH THE 12Z
   FLAGSTAFF RAOB AND RECENT VWP DATA INDICATING SWLY FLOW EXCEEDING 25
   MPH AOA 1500 FT AGL...DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD
   SUPPORT SSWLY TO SWLY SFC WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING
   AROUND 25 MPH. AND...WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.15-0.20 INCH PER THE
   12Z FLAGSTAFF RAOB AND GPS DATA...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
   AROUND 8-12 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE ANTICIPATION OF CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS AFFIRMED BY EXPERIMENTAL SPC SSEO
   GUIDANCE. FURTHERMORE...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL DURING
   THE PAST FEW MONTHS IN MANY LOCATIONS. AS SUCH...THE CRITICAL AREA
   IS BEING MAINTAINED FOR A LOW-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK.

   ...LOCATIONS THAT SURROUND THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   AZ...SERN CA...SRN NV...SRN UT...SWRN CO...WRN NM...
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS RH VALUES BECOME
   CRITICALLY LOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS
   OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS IS TOO LIMITED FOR
   CRITICAL DESIGNATION IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW.

   ...MOUNTAINS OF CNTRL NM...
   NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ISOLATED TO
   WIDELY SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
   HOWEVER...THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT IN AREAS
   WHERE LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT A
   DRY-THUNDERSTORM MODE WITH PW VALUES OF 0.50-0.75 INCH SHOULD
   PREVENT THE COVERAGE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXCEEDING WIDELY
   SCATTERED. THIS IS AFFIRMED BY THE CONSENSUS AMONGST THE LATEST
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE. AS SUCH...A DRY-THUNDERSTORM
   CRITICAL AREA HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED.

   ...CNTRL PA SWD INTO CNTRL VA...
   AN ENHANCED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WNWLY TO NWLY SFC
   WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30 MPH. THE STRONGEST OF
   THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL PA. AND...WITH STRENGTHENING
   VERTICAL MIXING AMIDST DEEP DRY AIR CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES
   AROUND 0.25 INCH...MINIMUM RH VALUES FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE
   MIDDLE 30S ARE EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
   THE LOWEST OF THESE RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL VA WHERE THE
   WARMEST AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT. THESE FACTORS MAY
   SUPPORT MARGINALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

   HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF AN EVEN WARMER AIR MASS...CRITICALLY LOW
   RH VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY
   BASIS. FURTHERMORE...THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY
   PREVENT CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS FROM OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A
   LOCALIZED/SHORT-DURATION BASIS. ALSO...ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY
   BE MITIGATED BY THE STRONGER WINDS BEING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF
   LOWER RH/HIGHER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...FUEL
   CONDITIONS MAY ONLY BE MARGINALLY RECEPTIVE FOR THE SPREAD OF FIRES
   IN MANY LOCATIONS. AS SUCH...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS HAVE NOT BEEN
   INCLUDED.

   ...W-CNTRL FL PENINSULA...
   SFC OBSERVATIONS AROUND 16Z INDICATE ELY WINDS AROUND 10-13 MPH WITH
   LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
   WITHIN AN OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME OVER THE W-CNTRL FL PENINSULA COAST
   WHILE A MODESTLY ENHANCED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.
   STRENGTHENING DIURNAL HEATING/VERTICAL MIXING AMIDST PW VALUES FROM
   0.75 TO 1.00 INCH WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE
   MIDDLE/UPPER 30S. MARGINALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
   OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS
   HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF A DRIER AIR
   MASS...CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON ANY
   MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS. FURTHERMORE...IN THE ABSENCE OF
   STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW/A TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...CRITICALLY
   STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED. AS SUCH...FIRE
   WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED.

   ..COHEN.. 05/25/2013

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0405 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS FORECAST TO ROTATE
   THROUGH THE FLOW SURROUNDING THE LARGE...STATIONARY PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST UPPER LOW. TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER LOW...SHORTWAVE
   RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

   ...NORTHERN ARIZONA...NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHERN
   UTAH...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA...
   STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...COUPLED WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE /PW VALUES AT
   OR BELOW 0.25 INCHES/...WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN RH VALUES DROPPING
   INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MODEST LOW-TO-MID
   LEVEL FLOW /AROUND 700 MB/ AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL
   RESULT IN SURFACE WINDS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20 MPH YIELDING AT
   LEAST LOW-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
   MODEL/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OF DECREASING THE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL
   FLOW...SURFACE WINDS MAY END UP BEING SLIGHTLY LESS THAN FORECAST.
   IF OBSERVATIONS LATER TODAY SUPPORT THIS DECREASED SURFACE WIND
   SCENARIO..THE CRITICAL RISK MAY NEED TO BE DOWNGRADED IN THE DAY 1
   UPDATE.

   ...AREAS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH...SURROUNDING THE
   CRITICAL AREA...
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREAS
   SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL RISK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ONCE
   AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE CRITICALLY LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
   HOURS...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA
   /RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/...AND SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST
   CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH /RH IN THE TEENS/. WIND SPEEDS ARE
   EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH EXCEEDING CRITICAL THRESHOLD /20 MPH/ AT
   TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
   EXCEEDING 20 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IS
   APPEARS THAT JOINT OCCURRENCE OF CRITICALLY LOW RH AND CRITICALLY
   HIGH WIND SPEEDS OCCURRING FOR THE REQUISITE 3 HRS APPEARS
   SUFFICIENTLY LOW THAT A CRITICAL DELINEATION IS NOT WARRANTED.

   ...MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
   WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
   FAVORED OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AREAS. PW VALUES HERE ARE EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN BELOW 0.75 INCHES. THIS...COUPLED WITH DEEP INVERTED-VEE
   SOUNDINGS WILL TEND TO PREVENT MOST PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE
   GROUND WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP. GIVEN THE WIDELY
   SCATTERED NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION...A CRITICAL IS NOT FELT TO BE
   NECESSARY. SHOULD LATER FORECASTS INDICATE MORE CONVECTION THAN
   CURRENTLY EXPECTED...A DRY THUNDERSTORM CRITICAL MAY BE NEEDED.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 51,223 296,214 Las Vegas, NM...Guymon, OK...Socorro, NM...Dalhart, TX...Ft. Sumner, NM...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 251925

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0225 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL/NERN NM...PORTIONS OF THE
   NRN/WRN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK PANHANDLE...FAR SERN CO...FAR SWRN
   KS...

   ...CNTRL/NERN NM...PORTIONS OF THE NRN/WRN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK
   PANHANDLE...FAR SERN CO...FAR SWRN KS...
   THE AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO CRITICAL DESIGNATION UPON COORDINATION
   WITH THE ALBUQUERQUE...EL PASO...AMARILLO...PUEBLO...AND DODGE CITY
   WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

   THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED OVER THE SERN
   PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WRN
   STATES. THIS WILL SERVE TO ESTABLISH A 700-MB WIND SPEED MAXIMUM
   ACROSS THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE
   TRAVERSING THE BROADER FLOW. AS VERTICAL MIXING DIURNALLY
   DEEPENS/STRENGTHENS INTO THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...SWLY SFC WINDS OF
   20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH RH VALUES FROM 8 TO 13 PERCENT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
   TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO THE MIDDLE 90S...WITH
   DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS ENHANCING BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING/DRYING IN MANY
   LOCATIONS. AND...WITH ONGOING DROUGHT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS AFFIRMED BY THE LATEST
   MULTI-DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL CONSENSUS.

   ...LOCATIONS SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   NM...SRN CO...NRN/ERN AZ...SRN UT...SRN NV...
   CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS A BROAD AREA AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS. WHILE
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...CRITICALLY STRONG
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON ANY MORE THAN A
   BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW.
   ACCORDINGLY...CRITICAL DESIGNATION IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

   ..COHEN.. 05/25/2013

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0456 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN TO
   OPEN UP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS
   TO INTERACT WITH IT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGE
   OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD
   NORTHWARD...WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...
   DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN RESPONSE
   STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPLY
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MIXING
   OCCURRING UP TO NEAR 500 MB ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DEEPLY MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT DAY TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
   80S AND 90S...ALONG WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
   LOW TEENS. THIS WILL FOSTER AT LEAST AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT. AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN MODEL DISCREPANCIES AS
   TO THE STRENGTH AND AREAL EXTENT OF THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS.
   THESE DISCREPANCIES PRECLUDE THE DELINEATION OF A CRITICAL FIRE
   THREAT. IF IT BECOMES CLEAR THAT SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL EXCEED THE
   CRITICAL THRESHOLD /20 MPH/ ON MORE THAN A TRANSIENT/LOCAL BASIS...A
   CRITICAL RISK COULD BE REQUIRED ACROSS SOME PORTION OF THIS AREA.

   ...MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...
   ONCE AGAIN...STRONG INSOLATION COUPLED WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL
   RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
   TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
   EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO DAYS
   PRIOR...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE. THESE MODEST
   /BUT SUB-CRITICAL/ WIND SPEEDS COUPLED WITH CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES
   WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   SOUTHWEST.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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