Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 29,110 645,352 Palmdale, CA...Lancaster, CA...Casper, WY...Gillette, WY...California City, CA...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 241636

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1136 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

   VALID 241700Z - 251200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN WY...

   ...PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT SHOWING STRENGTHENING NLY
   WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SANTA BARBARA/VENTURA COUNTIES
   EWD TO THE SAN GABRIEL MTNS...WITH SUSTAINED SFC WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
   POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO
   THE MAINTENANCE OF A FAVORABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR STRONG
   WINDS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND
   OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS GRADIENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN TIGHT
   THROUGH SAT MORNING...WITH A PERSISTENCE OF STRONG NLY WINDS
   OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGES. NWLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE
   ALSO EXPECTED FROM THE I-5 CORRIDOR TO THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND
   TEHACHAPI MTNS...WITH WIND SPEEDS PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING. GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF FUELS ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
   EXISTENCE OF ONGOING FIRES...THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD
   WILL REMAIN AT A CRITICAL THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...
   A BROAD RESPONSE IN LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW TO A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
   MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS STILL FORECAST TO OCCUR
   FROM PARTS OF ID/MT SWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. A MINOR EXPANSION
   NEWD OF THE PREVIOUS CRITICAL DELINEATION HAS BEEN MADE...FOCUSED ON
   PARTS OF CNTRL/NERN WY WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS OVERLAPPING WITH RECEPTIVE FUELS EXISTS. THE
   ELEVATED RISK HAS ALSO BEEN EXPANDED ACROSS SERN MT INTO SWRN SD.
   RECENT SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SFC TROUGH BECOMING
   POSITIONED FROM SERN MT SWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...AND DEEP
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING SHOULD FAVOR INCREASING WLY WINDS W OF THE SFC
   TROUGH FOR A FEW HRS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
   SLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH E OF THE SFC TROUGH MAY ALSO PRODUCE ELEVATED
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN WY/SWRN SD
   GIVEN MARGINAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE.

   REGARDING DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM
   RISK AREA HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NWD TO INCLUDE PARTS OF FAR SERN MT.
   LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED TSTMS
   MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER A DEEPLY MIXED AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
   ACROSS SERN/E-CNTRL WY...THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED WET/DRY TSTMS
   REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED TSTM ACTIVITY
   POSSIBLY LEADING TO HIGHER PRECIPITATION TOTALS. HOWEVER...LIGHTNING
   STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY ISOLATED HIGH-BASED TSTM...AND AWAY FROM
   PRIMARY CONVECTIVE CORES OF MORE ORGANIZED TSTMS...MAY STILL BE
   ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING-BASED IGNITIONS
   WHERE FUELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY DRY.

   ..ROGERS.. 06/24/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0329 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EASTWARD
   TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A BELT OF ENHANCED WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
   PERIPHERAL TO THIS CYCLONE WILL ALSO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
   ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE
   NORTHERN PLAINS...AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE...BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER
   MUCH OF THE GULF COAST.

   ...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA...
   WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
   NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
   CALIFORNIA WILL BE REINFORCED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IN
   TURN...SUSTAINED N/NWLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED /WITH
   HIGHER GUSTS/ WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
   FOOTHILLS OF SANTA BARBARA...KERN...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES
   COUNTIES. DIURNAL HEATING AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ENCOURAGE RH
   VALUES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY AFTERNOON...FAVORING A
   CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER THREAT. 

   ADDITIONALLY...ENHANCEMENT OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT LATER TODAY
   INTO TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH SUSTAINED...WHILE
   RH RECOVERY REMAINS POOR. THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
   VICINITY ARE MOST LIKELY TO REALIZE A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN WINDS
   THIS EVENING...AS CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS MAY BE MORE LOCALIZED HERE
   DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...
   AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES...INCREASING
   WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. DEEP
   DIURNAL MIXING AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENCOURAGE
   SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 MPH FROM THE SNAKE
   RIVER PLAIN OF ID EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF WY. MEANWHILE...RH VALUES
   SHOULD FALL INTO THE 5-20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
   GREATEST OVERLAP OF FAVORABLE WINDS...RH VALUES...AND FUELS SHOULD
   EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN WY...AND THE CRITICAL AREA IS
   MAINTAINED HERE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. SURROUNDING THE
   CRITICAL...THE ELEVATED AREA IS EXPANDED WESTWARD TO INCLUDE EASTERN
   ID...WHERE GUSTY WINDS WILL OVERLAP CURING FUELS AND RH VALUES BELOW
   15 PERCENT.

   MIXED DRY/WET-MODE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN WY
   THIS AFTERNOON...AS INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SUFFICIENT
   MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FAVOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
   INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND QUICK STORM MOTIONS WILL FAVOR
   AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE WETTING RAIN AND GUSTY
   OUTFLOW WINDS.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 241838

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0138 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z


   ...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
   MINIMAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXISTING ELEVATED RISK AREA.
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONGEST POST-FRONTAL WLY
   FLOW DISPLACED NWD ACROSS ERN MT FROM THE DRIEST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR
   OVER ERN WY. WHILE POCKETS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY EXIST ACROSS A
   SMALL PART OF SRN MT AND/OR SERN WY...CONFIDENCE IN THE
   SPATIOTEMPORAL DETAILS STILL REMAINS TOO LOW FOR A CATEGORICAL RISK
   UPGRADE.

   ...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

   ..ROGERS.. 06/24/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0334 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
   CANADA...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. IN TANDEM WITH THIS LOW...A
   CORRIDOR OF 50-70 KT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT
   FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE SFC RESPONSE
   WILL FEATURE A TRANSITORY CYCLONE LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CANADA...WHERE IT THEN WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER
   LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN. IN THEIR WAKE...SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER
   THE ROCKIES. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
   CONUS...AS BROAD RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DESERT
   SOUTHWEST.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
   IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT...GUSTY
   WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP MIXING AND A
   TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD FAVOR SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
   15-25 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN WY. STRONGER SUSTAINED
   WINDS /I.E. AROUND 20-30 MPH/ WILL PROBABLY MATERIALIZE OVER PARTS
   OF SOUTHERN MT AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WHILE A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
   BE USHERED ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
   DRY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF MIN RH VALUES BELOW 20-25
   PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE LOWEST /BELOW 10-15 PERCENT/
   ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WY. AS A RESULT...AT LEAST ELEVATED
   FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS WILL MATERIALIZE WHERE FUELS ARE
   DRY...GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN WY...SOUTHERN MT...AND NORTHWESTERN
   SD. 

   SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL CONCERNS EXISTS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
   SOUTHERN MT AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
   SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF CRITICAL WINDS/RH VALUES IS TOO LOW FOR AN
   UPGRADE AT THIS TIME.

   ...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
   PERIOD ACROSS TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS...IN RESPONSE TO MODEST
   ENHANCEMENT OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY
   THUS WILL ENCOURAGE ELEVATED/LOCALLY CRITICAL CONCERNS EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD. AS RH VALUES FALL THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER...THE SFC GRADIENT
   SHOULD RELAX...AS NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIDGING
   WEAKENS. IN TURN...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE WEAKER THAN THAT OF
   PREVIOUS DAYS...LIKELY PRECLUDING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONCERNS.
   NONETHELESS...CONTINUED ENHANCEMENT OF FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
   EXPECTED...AND AN ELEVATED AREA IS INTRODUCED.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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