Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 221640

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1140 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

   VALID 221700Z - 231200Z

   THE ONLY CHANGE THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS MODIFY THE AREAL BOUNDS OF
   THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA FROM CA NEWD INTO ID/MT.

   ...NERN CA / SERN ORE / NWRN AND N-CNTRL NV / CNTRL AND SWRN ID /
   FAR SWRN MT...
   BASED ON MORNING AREA RAOBS AND OBSERVED PW SENSOR DATA...HAVE
   REMOVED THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA DUE
   TO THE PROPENSITY FOR WETTING RAINS WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.  HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF NWRN NV
   NEWD INTO SWRN ID INTO THE DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA.  ISOLATED TO
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST AND SOME OF THE STORMS
   MAY BE DRIER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NWRN GREAT BASIN WHERE BOUNDARY
   LAYER TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE GREATEST.

   ..SMITH.. 07/22/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0314 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL BUILD NWD /INTO THE
   NRN HIGH PLAINS/ AND WWD /INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN/ THROUGHOUT THE
   DAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE
   GREAT LAKES WILL DAMPEN THE NERN PORTION OF THIS UPPER HIGH WHILE AN
   UPPER LOW MOVING WWD ALONG THE GULF COAST IMPINGES ON THE HIGH/S
   SEWD EXTENT. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SEWD TOWARDS THE
   SRN BC/NRN WA COAST. ENHANCED SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
   THIS UPPER LOW AND THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER SE...ROUGHLY FROM CNTRL CA
   NEWD INTO NWRN MT.

   ...EXTREME E-CNTRL CA...CNTRL/NE NV...FAR WRN UT...
   DESPITE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S /AT
   OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AMIDST A
   RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
   SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BY THE MID-AFTERNOON. AFOREMENTIONED
   ENHANCED SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH /GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH/ AS THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS WILL
   RESULT IN AN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. 

   ...FAR N-CNTRL CA...CNTRL/NE ORE...FAR SE WA...CNTRL/SW ID...
   TWO DIFFERENT MECHANISMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
   SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE FROM FAR N-CNTRL CA NEWD THROUGH CNTRL MT
   FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
   TSTM ACTIVITY...FORCED MAINLY BY DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC
   LIFT...WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. HIGHEST COVERAGE
   IS EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL ORE. MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WET BUT
   FAST STORM MOTIONS /OVER 25 KT/ AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL
   RESULT IN ISOLATED DRY TSTMS. EVEN IF STORMS ARE WET...COVERAGE OF
   WETTING RAINS WILL BE LOW AND LIGHTNING AMIDST DRY TO VERY DRY FUELS
   WILL POSE A RISK FOR LIGHTNING-CAUSED IGNITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT...SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME
   ROTATING TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SVR WIND AND
   HAIL -- SEE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR MORE DETAILS.

   A SECOND ROUND OF TSTMS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER ERN ORE
   AND CNTRL/SRN ID...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
   REGION WITHIN THE ENHANCED SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY WET TSTMS ARE
   AGAIN ANTICIPATED BUT SOME DRY TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING AMIDST
   DRY FUELS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 221856

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0156 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   NO CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

   ..SMITH.. 07/22/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0316 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TOWARDS THE NRN
   ROCKIES. UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND COVERING
   MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST STATES WILL REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE
   WITH SOME DAMPENING OF ITS NRN EXTENT EXPECTED AS THE PACIFIC NW
   UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EWD. FARTHER E...TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER
   WITH ERN CONUS WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES WWD ALONG THE WRN
   GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
   NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT LIKELY EXTENDING FROM
   NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY
   EVENING.

   ...MUCH OF NV...FAR WRN UT...ERN WA/ORE...SRN ID...SWRN WY...
   SWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE CNTRL ROCKIES HIGH AND THE PACIFIC NW
   UPPER LOW /FROM NE CA NEWD INTO SRN ALBERTA/ WILL INCREASE
   THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EWD...SUPPORTING
   SUSTAINED SWLY AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN.
   TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY WARM BUT THE
   AIRMASS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MIN RH VALUES AROUND 20
   PERCENT ACROSS SE ORE...NRN NV...SRN ID..AND SWRN WY. SLIGHTLY LOWER
   RH VALUES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL NV. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
   CONSISTENT WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

   ACROSS E-CNTRL/NE ORE AND ERN WA...DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL SUPPORT
   SUSTAINED WLY WIND FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. THE AIRMASS HERE WILL NOT BE
   PARTICULARLY DRY /RH VALUES ABOVE 3O PERCENT/ BUT THE STRENGTH OF
   THE WINDS AMIDST DRY TO VERY DRY FUELS WILL STILL PROMOTE AN
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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