Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 241517

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0917 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

   Valid 241700Z - 251200Z

   ...Portions of Eastern CO...

   Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today along portions
   of the I-25 corridor. Falling upper level heights and a
   strengthening mid/upper level jet will result in breezy downslope
   winds ahead of an approaching surface cold front. High temperatures
   in the 70s are expected today, and enhanced by downslope drying, RH
   values will fall to near 15 percent. Westerly surface winds near 15
   mph with gusts to 30 mph are possible. Where fuels are dry, these
   conditions would support fast fire spread should ignition occur. 

   Elsewhere, no changes are needed to the previous outlook.  See
   discussion below for more details.

   ..Leitman.. 11/24/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   Weak surface cyclogenesis will occur in the Texas South Plains this
   afternoon along a weak, southward-moving cold front. 
   Westerly/downslope flow will increase south and west of this low,
   elevating fire weather concerns across that region.  Farther north,
   dry low-level flow and cool conditions will prevail across the High
   Plains.  Meanwhile, an expansive anticyclone across the
   Intermountain West will set up an offshore pressure gradient across
   coastal ranges of southern California, resulting in localized gusty
   winds there.

   ...Eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains...
   Westerly flow will increase into the 10-20 mph range during the
   afternoon with a few higher gusts - especially in east-central New
   Mexico.  Vertical mixing and downslope will foster lowering RH (into
   the 12-20% range) amidst near-record-high surface temperatures and
   areas of dry fuels.  Elevated fire weather conditions are expected -
   especially within the delineated area.  Critical thresholds may be
   exceeded on a brief and localized basis across a few areas of
   east-central New Mexico.

   ...Coastal Ranges of southern California...
   The aforementioned offshore pressure gradient will foster areas of
   gusty northerly/northeasterly surface flow throughout the forecast
   period - especially near terrain favored areas.  Although warm
   temperatures (mid 80s to low 90s F) will become common by
   mid-afternoon, RH values are expected to remain above critical
   thresholds and only fall to around 20% in very localized areas. 
   These conditions preclude areal highlights - although locally
   elevated fire weather conditions can be expected especially during
   peak heating hours.

   ...Western South Dakota southward to Western Kansas...
   Northerly/northwesterly flow will increase across the region through
   peak heating hours as RH values fall to between 25-35%.  Surface
   temperatures will increase to the mid 50s F in the Dakotas, and near
   70F in north-central Kansas.  Locally/briefly elevated fire weather
   conditions will develop during the afternoon  - especially where
   fuels are dry.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 241742

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1142 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   No updates are needed to the previous outlook. See discussion below
   for more details.

   ..Leitman.. 11/24/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   A more quiescent fire weather pattern is expected Saturday.  High
   pressure - initially centered across the Great Basin - will shift
   southeastward into the Plains while weakening slightly throughout
   the day.  Meanwhile, a stronger low-pressure area over the
   northeastern Pacific will begin to influence much of the West,
   leading to an onshore flow pattern across dry areas of southern
   California.  Additionally, the aforementioned high-pressure area
   will aid in cooler air filtering into the Plains, with higher RH
   values limiting fire weather concerns. 

   Given the overall unfavorable pattern for large-scale fire weather,
   no areas will be delineated for this outlook.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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