Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 10,505 126,997 Cheyenne, WY...Torrington, WY...Douglas, WY...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 161636

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1136 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

   Valid 161700Z - 171200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
   WYOMING...

   The critical area has been expanded slightly across southeastern WY
   based on 16Z surface observations and latest short-term model
   guidance. Across this region, sustained winds of 20-25 mph and RH
   values of 10-15% are either ongoing or are expected to develop for
   at least a few hours this afternoon. The surrounding elevated area
   has also been expanded to include more of south-central WY,
   northeastern CO, and western NE. Although fuels become more marginal
   with westward extent into south-central WY, latest guidance suggests
   fine fuels should be marginally receptive to large fire starts
   across this area with elevated to locally critical meteorological
   conditions expected. Confidence in strong/gusty winds occurring over
   an even greater portion of the northern/central High Plains remains
   too low to delineate a larger critical area. See the previous
   discussion below for more information.

   ..Gleason.. 10/16/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   A weak mid/upper-level ridge is forecast to remain centered over the
   Desert Southwest through much of today, before flattening late in
   the period as a large-scale trough approaches the Pacific Northwest.
   Meanwhile, a subtle mid-level shortwave trough is expected to round
   the crest of the ridge over portions of the Northern Rockies. At the
   surface, the persistent area of high pressure over the Great Basin
   is forecast to weaken further. 

   ...Portions of Southeast Wyoming, North-central Colorado, and
   Western Nebraska...
   Strong downslope winds in the lee of the Laramie Range are expected
   to develop today, as enhanced mid-level flow associated with
   aforementioned shortwave trough passes overhead. Despite relatively
   cool temperatures, heating of a very dry airmass will keep minimum
   RH values at or below 15% while fostering efficient deep-layer
   mixing. A Critical fire weather area has been introduced across
   portions of Albany, Laramie, Platte, and Goshen Counties, as latest
   high-resolution deterministic/ensemble guidance suggest a sufficient
   duration of sustained winds greater than 20 mph coupled with
   critical RH values and increasingly receptive fuels (especially fine
   fuels) in these areas. Only minor adjustments were made to the
   surrounding Elevated area, where surface winds around 15-20 mph and
   RH values at or below 15% are expected.  

   ...Southern California...
   While a weakening pressure gradient will allow surface winds to
   weaken considerably today, warm and dry conditions combined with
   lingering offshore breeziness will create near elevated fire weather
   conditions (especially Monday/Tuesday morning). The limited duration
   of the stronger winds precludes an Elevated fire weather area at
   this time.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 10,514 126,993 Cheyenne, WY...Torrington, WY...Douglas, WY...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 161958

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0258 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
   WYOMING...

   A critical area has been introduced for portions of southeastern WY.
   Sustained westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with higher gusts, now appear
   likely to occur in concert with RH values of 10-15% and dry fine
   fuels for at least a few hours Tuesday afternoon. The ongoing
   elevated area across this region has also been expanded to include
   more of central/eastern WY and far western NE based on latest
   short-term model guidance.

   An elevated area has been included for parts of central and eastern
   MT. Here, strong west-southwesterly winds of 20-40 mph are expected
   to occur Day 2/Tuesday ahead of a surface cold front. Although
   temperatures may remain somewhat cool, generally reaching into the
   low 70s in lower elevations, downslope warming/drying of an already
   dry low-level airmass should allow for RH values to become reduced
   into the 15-25% range for a few hours Tuesday afternoon. With a
   relative lack of recent precipitation and additional drying
   occurring on Day 1/Monday, some fine fuels have become marginally
   receptive to large fire starts, thus necessitating the introduction
   of an elevated area. Locally critical conditions will be possible
   where fine fuels are driest. Less receptive fuels and weaker winds
   with eastward and southward extent in eastern MT/western ND preclude
   an even larger elevated designation at this time. See the previous
   discussion below for more information.

   ..Gleason.. 10/16/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0250 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   The mid/upper-level ridge that had been centered over the Desert
   Southwest is forecast to become suppressed southward on Day
   2/Tuesday, as an area of enhanced zonal flow -- with embedded subtle
   impulses -- ejects from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern
   Rockies and northern High Plains.

   ...Portions of Eastern Wyoming...
   Downslope westerly flow is expected to promote another day of warm
   and breezy conditions in the lee of the Laramie Range, with near
   critical RH values developing during the afternoon. While locally
   critical conditions remain possible, uncertainty in the sustained
   wind speeds reaching critical thresholds for a sufficient duration
   remains too high to introduce a Critical area at this time. Thus,
   the Elevated area was maintained (with only minor adjustments). An
   upgrade to Critical may be needed for some portion of this region in
   a future update if forecast wind speeds increase further.  

   ...Portions of Central/Eastern Montana into the Dakotas...
   A belt of strong mid-level flow is forecast to approach the far
   Northern Rockies during the afternoon, with an associated increase
   in surface winds as mixing commences. Despite increasingly receptive
   fuels (especially fine fuels), considerable uncertainty remains
   regarding the degree of low-level drying and whether the strongest
   winds will overlap sufficiently lowered RH values. Thus, while near
   elevated fire weather conditions are possible, an Elevated area was
   not introduced at this time. An upgrade to Elevated may be needed
   for some portion of this region in a future update if forecast
   minimum RH values decrease further.  

   ...Southern California...
   Lingering offshore flow will maintain warm/dry conditions across the
   area, with near elevated fire weather conditions possible Tuesday
   morning. However, the limited duration of stronger winds precludes
   introduction of an Elevated area at this time.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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