SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #0125 FOR ERN MS...CENTRAL/NRN AL...SERN
TN...NWRN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

VALID 161848Z - 162100Z

WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO THE EAST OF CURRENT TORNADO WATCH.
TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS
NEWD AND COLD FRONT MOVES EWD INTO AL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

18Z SOUNDING FROM BHM INDICATES COOLING AROUND H7 HAS WEAKENED THE
CAP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...AND MUCAPES ARE NOW OVER 1000 J/KG. 
WIND PROFILES ALSO YIELD FAVORABLE SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR SUPERCELLS
AND THE THREAT OF TORNADOES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONT...THOUGH PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
THEREFORE AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NEWD...UVV/S AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASED THREAT OF WIND
DAMAGE/ISOLATED TORNADOES AS SURFACE WINDS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN
AL.

..EVANS.. 02/16/01