SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0383 FOR SERN KS/SWRN AND CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

VALID 030815Z - 031100Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER
PORTIONS OF SERN KS INTO SWRN AND CNTRL MO THROUGH 11Z.  POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL MAY REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. 

LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS FROM EASTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.  LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW STRONG
VEERING WITH HEIGHT OVER AREA...INDICATIVE OF WARM ADVECTION
REGIME.  40 KNOT SOUTHWEST 850 MB FLOW OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IS
RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF WEST-EAST FRONT
ALONG KANSAS/OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER.  

SURFACE PRESSURE FALL CENTER HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST FROM WESTERN
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH UPPER VORTICITY MAXIMUM EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
WESTERN KANSAS.  AVERAGING MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM ETA/RUC2 FOR AREA
SUGGESTS MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...0-6 KM AGL SHEAR OF 45
KNOTS...AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT NEAR 8500 FEET AGL. 
THUS...ELEVATED ROTATING STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE MAIN
THREAT.   

..CRAVEN.. 04/03/01