SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0526 FOR KS...MO AND SERN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...141...

VALID 142249Z - 150100Z

TORNADO WW 144 HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN KS
INTO WRN MO AND REPLACES SEVERE WW 141.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL OK
PANHANDLE WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD TO EAST CENTRAL KS/
CENTRAL MO.  AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS FRONT REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH
SBCAPE VALUES OF 1500-3000 J/KG.  UPWARD MOTION WILL INCREASE OVER
KS INTO WRN MO AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WRN KS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
EWD...RESULTING IN FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.  DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES OF 200-300
M2/S2 SUPPORT SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. 

ELEVATED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER NERN KS/SERN NEB/NWRN MO WHERE
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THESE
STORMS.  THEREFORE...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVER THIS REGION.  

..PETERS.. 04/14/01