SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0699 FOR CENTRAL AND NERN KS...EXTREME
NERN MO...SERN NEB 
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

VALID 082243Z - 090130Z

SCATTERED CONVECTIVE STORMS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KS NEWD INTO
SERN NEB WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY NARROW MOIST AXIS WHICH
EXTENDS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK SURFACE DRYLINE FEATURE. THE
SURFACE TROUGH IS PRESENTLY JUST NW OF HYS...AND INTERSECTS A WARM
FRONT IN S-CENTRAL NEB. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR GRI SEWD
ACROSS NWRN MO. SURFACE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS BASED ON LATEST RUC
INDICATES  100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. CONCENTRATED VERTICAL MOTION ALONG THE ABOVE
MENTIONED BOUNDARIES IN CONJUNCTION WITH MINIMAL CIN HAS INITIATED
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM RUSH COUNTY KS NEWD ALONG THE
KS/NE BORDER. AREA WIND PROFILERS SUGGEST STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY
320/15KT. WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 7 KFT SUGGEST THE THREAT OF HAIL WITH
MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...AS STORMS IN CENTRAL KS TRACK
SEWD...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER LOWER DEWPOINTS/CAPE AND DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY WITHIN 2-3 HOURS. CELLS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/PERSIST
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING IN SERN NEB...WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR
TWO REACHING NWRN MO. OVERALL INTENSITY AND SHORT DURATION OF
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE IN THIS AREA.

..BANACOS.. 05/08/01