SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0810 FOR ERN AR...WRN TN...NRN MS...SRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #254

VALID 202047Z - 202300Z

CONVECTION CONTINUES HEADING EWD FROM PARTS OF ERN AR/NRN MS EWD
INTO WRN TN. WW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 20/23Z...WITH AN ADDITIONAL
WW POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. 

RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NRN KS
ESEWD THROUGH CNTRL MO INTO SRN IL/WRN KY WITH ARC SHAPED
CONVECTION FROM ECNTRL MO SEWD THROUGH SERN MO INTO WRN TN/NRN MS.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF CONVECTION RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...GENERALLY YIELDING MUCAPE VALUES
FROM 1000 J/KG - 1500 J/KG. STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SSEWD INTO CNTRL MS ALONG RATHER SUBTLE WARM FRONTAL/SURFACE
BOUNDARY. THE THREAT OF HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WW IN
PORTIONS OF TN/MS/AL.  


..NADEN.. 05/20/01