SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0872 FOR LA...MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #282...

VALID 250023Z - 250300Z

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #282.
MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF ADVANCEMENT FURTHER SSEWD INTO SRN
PORTION OF LA/MS.

RECENT SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS INDICATE CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER
FOCUSED ON/AHEAD OF LOW-LVL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM AROUND POE TO
NORTH OF JAN. DEWPOINTS ALONG/AHEAD OF BOUNDARY RANGE FROM 69 AT
LCH TO 64 AT BTR WITH A 59 READING AT MCB. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
VALUES REVEAL MUCAPES OF AROUND 3000-3500 J/KG IN AREA OF COOLEST
CLOUD TOPS NEAR ESF WITH ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG FURTHER SOUTHEAST
AROUND LIX. THE ONLY STORMS ATTM WHICH APPEAR TO HAVE ANY SEWD
MOVEMENT ARE IN THE WRN PORTION OF WW NORTH OF LCH. THESE STORMS
ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO MAINTAIN AWAY FROM THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY GIVEN THE LEVEL OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE VIA MOST RECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE FIELDS. THE ACTIVITY FURTHER NEWD WILL
LIKELY STAY AHEAD/ALONG OF BOUNDARY WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF VERY
LARGE HAIL IN BOTH AREAS.

..NADEN.. 05/25/01