SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0883 FOR CNTRL/SRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

VALID 261349Z - 261600Z

HAIL SHOULD BE PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING AS MCS MOVES SWD THROUGH
CNTRL TX. HOWEVER...STORMS COULD BECOME SURFACE BASED LATER TODAY
IN CNTRL TX WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND. AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

LARGE MCS IS MOVING SEWD THROUGH CNTRL TX AT AROUND 30 KT. BASED ON
CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS AND MORNING SOUNDINGS...
STORMS APPEAR ELEVATED ABOVE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM SERN TX NWWD THROUGH CNTRL TX. STORMS APPEAR TO BE
UNDERGOING A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM 1 TO 3 KM WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40 TO
50 KT WILL HELP MAINTAIN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE
INFLOW/CONVERGENCE AS ACTIVITY MOVES SWD. AREA WILL BE MONITORED
FOR REINTENSIFICATION ALONG OUTFLOW AS STORMS SPREAD SEWD ALONG
BOUNDARY WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON IF LOW CLOUDS
MIX OUT. IF THIS EVOLUTION TRANSPIRES...STORMS WILL BECOME SURFACE
BASED AND THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON.

..DIAL.. 05/26/01