SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0900 FOR S-CENTRAL/SERN KS..N-CENTRAL/NERN
OK..FAR SWRN MO..FAR NWRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 299...

VALID 272018Z - 272200Z

INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT SLOWLY SSEWD
ACROSS SRN KS THIS AFTERNOON.  ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED STRONGLY
OUTFLOW DOMINATED DESPITE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /I.E.
50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AT LMN PROFILER/...WITH WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES SURGING IN ALL DIRECTIONS FROM MAIN UPDRAFT CORES TO THE
SW AND SE OF ICT.  THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO DICTATE NEW
CELL DEVELOPMENT...WITHIN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  MEAN-
MIXED PARCEL CAPES YIELD 2000-2500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE WW AND OK. 

CURRENT TRENDS WOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AS COLD POOL SPREADS OUTWARD.  GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT/ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY... WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING SSEWD
PORTION OF COLD POOL FOR ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND A MORE
CONSOLIDATED LINE OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THIS WOULD
ALSO BE A MORE FAVORED LOCATION FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL.  IF THIS
OCCURS THEN NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SSEWD INTO MORE OF
OK/FAR WRN AR. 

..EVANS.. 05/27/01