SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0954 FOR PORTIONS OF ERN MS/WRN AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

VALID 302005Z - 302200Z

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER NRN MS ALONG STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COUPLED WITH MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...SINCE ONLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. 

LATEST VWP OUT OF TUPELO INDICATES MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30
KTS...WHILE VWP OUT OF JACKSON ONLY SHOWS 15 TO 20 KTS. COUPLED
WITH LIGHT SELY WINDS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...0-6 KM SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 35 KTS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN. LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES FROM
2000-3000 J/KG. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THESE PARAMETERS...STRONG
TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED. CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO WCENTRAL AL ALONG STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 

..CROSBIE.. 05/30/01