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Mesoscale Discussion 1029

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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1029 FOR FRONT RANGE IN CO/WY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

VALID 041930Z - 042130Z

TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF CO/WY
ROCKIES DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

AIR MASS HAS BEEN SLOW TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS ERN CO/SERN WY GIVEN
PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK IN PLACE.  HOWEVER...RECENT VSBL SATELLITE
PICTURES SHOW A FEW BINOVC OCCURRING WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE LOWER 60S.  WEAK SELY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN
LOWER 50S DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION UNDERNEATH 8-8.5 C/KM MID-
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN SBCAPES OF 500-750 J/KG. 
FURTHER HEATING WILL LIKELY AID IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.   THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE
AS THE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER NWRN CO...APPROACHES
THE REGION AIDING IN LARGE SCALE UVV.  LOW WBZ HEIGHTS...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

..RACY.. 06/04/01

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