SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1077 FOR PORTIONS SWRN KS/NWRN OK/NERN TX
PANHANDLE...CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...

VALID 080608Z - 080930Z

HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES 1.5-2.5 INCHES/HOUR WILL SHIFT SLOWLY ESEWD
ACROSS A CORRIDOR FROM GRAY/HASKELL/SEWARD COUNTIES KS...AND TEXAS
COUNTY OK...TOWARD PRATT-P28-GAG REGION OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
ISOLATED SIMILAR TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER S ALONG LINE IN TX
PANHANDLE...BUT THIS SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED THREAT.

MODIFIED DDC RAOB AND ETA/RUC2 FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RICH
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE IN INFLOW LAYER OF THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES
EWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL KS/OK BORDER REGION THROUGH NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.  TSTM COMPLEX MOTION SHOULD BE MAINLY VIA FORWARD
PROPAGATION ALONG ITS SLOW-MOVING OUTFLOW POOL...WITH CELL MERGERS 
PROBABLE AS WELL.  HIGH RH EVIDENT FROM SURFACE THROUGH 700
MB...WITH AROUND 1.5 INCH PW AND 7-8 DEG C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE.  EXPECT 15-25 KT
SELYS NOW OBSERVED IN VWP/PROFILER WINDS JUST ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO VEER AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AFTER ABOUT 09Z...REDUCING SR INFLOW
AND CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING OF SYSTEM.  

..EDWARDS.. 06/08/01

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