SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1080 FOR ERN CO/NERN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

VALID 081909Z - 082100Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE ERN PLAINS OF CO AND NERN NM
THIS AFTERNOON.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF FURTHER STRENGTHENING CAN
OCCUR.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK VORT MAX IS LIFTING NEWD
AROUND UPPER RIDGE INTO SWRN CO.  OVER THE LAST HOUR CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED MARKEDLY OVER CENTRAL/SRN CO MOUNTAINS INTO NRN NM.  WITH
ROUGHLY 1 KM ELY COMPONENT ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS INTO THE FRONT
RANGE IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT
PROPAGATES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
ENHANCE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY TO NEAR 3000 J/KG BENEATH MODERATELY
STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT.  RESULTANT PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH
AT LEAST LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.


..DARROW.. 06/08/01