SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1181 FOR MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TO THE TN
VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL...

VALID 141709Z - 142000Z

PULSE-TYPE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING FROM SWRN OH
SWD THROUGH ERN KY TO MIDDLE AND ERN TN TO NRN AL/GA AND EXTREME
WRN SECTIONS OF NC/SWRN VA.  WEAK FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN SLOW
MOVING STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F AND TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE 80S.  AS A RESULT...100 MB MLCAPE VALUES ARE RANGING
FROM 1000-1500 J/KG.  AREA VAD WINDS INDICATE VERY WEAK FLOW/
RESULTANT SHEAR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OVER THIS REGION.  HOWEVER...
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVER THIS REGION...BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE NC
COAST AND THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.  THIS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PULSE-TYPE STORMS WITH BRIEF HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WEAK
FLOW SUPPORT A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

..PETERS.. 06/14/01