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Mesoscale Discussion 1275

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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1275 FOR NC / SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #465...

VALID 222043Z - 222300Z

SCATTERED AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE IN MUCH OF WW#465. WATCH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 22/23Z...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
SUBSEQUENT REPLACEMENT/REISSUANCE ISSUE.

RECENT SURFACE MESOANALYSIS REVEALS MAIN COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CHA
NEWD TO EAST OF LOZ WITH DISCERNIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO ITS
EAST...FROM EAST OF AND IN SC NEWD TO EAST OF BLF IN WV. AIRMASS IN
MUCH OF WW#465 REMAINS UNSTABLE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S IN RAINCOOLED WRN AREAS WHILE AREAS THAT
CONTINUE TO RECEIVE ADDITIONAL HEATING HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER
60S...MUCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 J/KG TO 3000 J/KG. VAD PROFILE
VIA GSP DEPICTS BOUNDARY LAYER WNWLY FLOW INDICATING PASSAGE OF
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHILE RAX VAD SHOWS RATHER
UNIFORM SLY FLOW THROUGH 2.5KM. EXPECT SCATTERED NNEWD MOVING CELLS
TO CONTINUE EAST OF MAIN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CONVECTION TO MAINLY BE FOCUSED ON THE SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW
REGION/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PRESENTLY IN THE WRN PORTION OF WW.
BESIDES THE THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD
ALSO BE A CONCERN.

..NADEN.. 06/22/01

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