SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1393 FOR ERN CO / NWRN KS...
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

VALID 050314Z - 050500Z

THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SWD THROUGH WW 512 MAY MERGE TOGETHER AND
ACCELLERATE SWD INTO ERN CO / NWRN KS WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS.  WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS LYING NW-SE
ACROSS WRN KS...WITH AN AXIS OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG SURFACE-BASED
CAPE FROM ROUGHLY AKO THROUGH GLD TOWARD DDC.  AS LOW-LEVEL JET NOW
15 KTS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...INCREASED WARM ADVECTION / INFLOW
INTO ONGOING CONVECTION MAY ALLOW STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD-
PROPAGATING MCS.  ADDITIONALLY...DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF UPPER
FEATURE FORECAST TO MOVE SWWD ACROSS WY AROUND NRN PERIPHERY OF
UPPER RIDGE MAY FURTHER AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION.  WITH 30 KTS OF
NLY FLOW ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 30 KTS
FROM THE SE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE AND
PROPAGATE SSEWD THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS...RESULTING IN A THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.

..GOSS.. 07/05/01