SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1421 FOR SRN SD / WRN AND CENTRAL NEB...
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 0522...

VALID 080441Z - 080600Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
EWD...ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.

RADAR REFLECTIVITY / VIL LOOPS OVER THE PAST HOUR SHOW CONVECTION
DECREASING IN INTENSITY ACROSS WW AREA.  ALTHOUGH VWP / PROFILER
DATA AND 00Z ETA MODEL FORECASTS SHOW STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON 35
TO 45 KT SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THIS REGION...EVENING 850 MB
ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH DRIER /8C TO 10C DEWPOINT/ AIR SOUTH OF THE
REGION.  ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
IS OCCURRING...THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO WW AREA MAY BE
CONTRIBUTING TO A DECREASE IN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND THUS
THE ONGOING CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL
LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WW MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR
TO ITS 07/08Z EXPIRATION IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

..GOSS.. 07/08/01