SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1448 FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEB/EXTREME NRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

VALID 092027Z - 092200Z

ISOLATED STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEB
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND. 
WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

REGIONAL RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY
ORIENTED E-W ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER.  LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER
FROM OVERNIGHT/MORNING MCS OVER NRN NEB.  THE AIRMASS OVER THIS
REGION IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...
SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG.  ENELY SURFACE WINDS AT
10-15 KT...NORTH OF THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH WLY
500 MB FLOW OF 15-25 KT IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
UP TO 35 KT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS.  18Z ETA/ETAKF/RUC2 ALSO
SUPPORT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE E-W
ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORMS THAT
BECOME ORGANIZED WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL/
WINDS.

..PETERS.. 07/09/01