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Mesoscale Discussion 1453

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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1453 FOR NERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

VALID 100044Z - 100230Z

WE ARE MONITORING NERN KS FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

IF STORMS CAN GET GOING...WW WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS ATTEMPTING DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR CNK TO TOP. 
AIRMASS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...WITH 100 MB
MLCAPES OF 4000-5000 J/KG...AS SEEN ON 00Z TOP SOUNDING.  QUESTION
IS WHETHER OR NOT WEAK FORCING CAN OVERCOME WEAK CAP...WHICH EXISTS
AROUND 800 MB.  ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS...ALONG WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN.  ALTHOUGH LATEST RUC GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS DO NOT LOOK
PROMISING.  

..JEWELL.. 07/10/01

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