SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1454 FOR NERN CO...NWRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

VALID 221907Z - 222200Z

TOWERING CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. WATCH MAY BE ULTIMATELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA.

AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WITH MODERATE NWLY FLOW CONTINUES
TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
LOCAL RADARS INDICATE SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTED NW-SE FROM AKO-
GLD...WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE TOWERS ALONG CO/KS BORDER. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUFFICE TO INITIATE SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THIS FEATURE. GIVEN PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS...
BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXISTS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.

MLCAPE VALUES TO 2000J/KG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8C/KM
SUGGEST STORMS WILL POSSESS STRONG UPDRAFTS AND RAPIDLY BECOME
SEVERE DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND MICROBURST
ASSOCIATED WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. VERTICAL
SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH 0-6KM VALUES OF
AROUND 20M/S. STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE SWD AT 15-20KTS...WITH
PERHAPS A FEW DEVIANT RIGHT MOVERS PROPAGATING SSWWD. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

..BANACOS.. 07/22/00