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Mesoscale Discussion 1495

MD 1495 graphic
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1495 FOR NERN ORE AND WRN ID
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

VALID 130020Z - 130300Z

SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS NERN ORE/WRN ID THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL
MOVE GENERALLY 210/25-30KT WITH THE MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. 

WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN IR AND WV IMAGERY IS MOVING NEWD
ACROSS THE CA/ORE BORDER AT 13/00Z AND IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE-SCALE AREA OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MOVING INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA. INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN ORE AND WRN ID IS NOT
EXTREME...HOWEVER...MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS APPROACHING 40F SUGGEST LOCALIZED
DOWNDRAFT WINDS EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS ARE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY...WBZ HEIGHTS ARE IN THE 7-8 KFT RANGE BASED MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12/12Z ETA...SUGGESTING SOME SEVERE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.   

..BANACOS.. 07/13/01

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