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Mesoscale Discussion 1507

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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1507 FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 552...

VALID 140251Z - 140500Z

LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW THERE HAS BEEN SOME GRADUAL INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PAST HOUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA.  EVENING SOUNDINGS FROM BOISE
AND GREAT FALLS SHOW MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 45 KNOTS.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MONTANA...ENHANCING THE VERTICAL SHEAR NOW OVER THE REGION.  THE
EVENING SOUNDING FROM GLASGOW SHOWED STRONGLY VEERING WINDS...BUT
SPEEDS REMAIN AT OR BELOW 30 KNOTS.  INSTABILITY REMAINS AMPLE
THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF THE
STORMS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THE VEERING PROFILE
SUGGESTS STORMS MAY ROTATE...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL.  THERE IS ALSO SUFFICIENT FLOW MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR
DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE STATE.

A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST HOUR OVER SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE OUTSIDE THE WATCH AREA.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...MOVING INTO THE WATCH OVER THE
NEXT HOUR.  IF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES OUTSIDE
THE CURRENT WATCH...A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BE NEEDED
ACROSS SE MT.

..REHBEIN.. 07/14/01

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