SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1551 FOR KS...WRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

VALID 182040Z - 182230Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS LIKELY SOON PORTIONS OF KS. 

VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS LINE OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTH OF
DDC ENEWD TO JUST NE OF MHK. MODEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS REVEAL AN
AREA OF BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE LIES FROM AROUND GCK ENEWD TO
JUST WEST OF TOP WHERE A SUBTLE AREA OF SWLY WINDS COLLIDE WITH A
MORE SLY FLOW TO THE EAST. A WARM FRONT LIES FURTHER NORTH FROM SRN
NEB...SEWD THRU THE KC METRO AREA...INTO CNTRL MO. TEMPERATURES
CNTRL AND NRN KS HAVE ABRUPTLY RISEN TO BETWEEN 95-105
DEGREES...AND DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S YIELDING
MUCAPES FROM 4000 J/KG TO 5500 J/KG. A COMPARISON OF THE DDC/TOP
VADS REVEAL THE CONVERGENCE IN THE REGION...AS DDC INDICATES WSWLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WHILE TWX REVEALS SLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE.
DESPITE WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW /SSWLY 15-20 KT/ THE INTENSE LEVEL OF
SURFACE HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE REGION TO YIELD SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH A
PRIMARY THREAT OF STRONG DOWNBURST WIND ACTIVITY GIVEN DEGREE OF
TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS.   

..NADEN.. 07/18/01