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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1590 FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MT/WRN ND
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 596...
VALID 202220Z - 210000Z
A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM WAS TO THE SW OF GLASGOW OVER SRN VALLEY
COUNTY. THIS STORM HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. STORM
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ESEWD AROUND 15 KTS...WHICH WOULD TAKE
THE STORM ACROSS THE REST OF SRN VALLEY COUNTY INTO NRN GARFIELD
AND MCCONE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. LATEST VWP OUT OF
GLASGOW CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILE...WITH VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR / 0-3 KM 300 M2/S2
SRH/ CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE MESOANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE WITH LOW
LCL HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN
RICHLAND COUNTY IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED CUMULUS GROWTH/CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE.
FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER NWRN ND ANOTHER SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR PRODUCING TORNADOES GIVEN LOW LCL
HEIGHTS AND RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THIS AREA AS WELL.
STORM MOTION ON THIS CELL WOULD TAKE IT OUT OF WW 596 AROUND 00Z.
WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF WW 596...A
REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
..CROSBIE.. 07/20/01
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