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Mesoscale Discussion 1671

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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1671 FOR NERN CO AND SWRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

VALID 262032Z - 262230Z

TSTMS WILL INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF NERN CO AND SWRN NEB THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A
WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

STRONG TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS OF NERN CO FROM
NEAR AKO TO 25 SE DEN ALONG A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS. 
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY ALSO HINTS THAT A SUBTLE VORT MAX MAY BE
TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL CO...ENHANCING LARGE SCALE LIFT TO
SUPPORT TSTM GROWTH.  THE MID CLOUD DECK THAT WAS COVERING MUCH OF
NERN CO HAS ERODED ALLOWING THE AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE WITH
MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG.  VWP/PROFILERS SUGGEST THAT SLIGHTLY
STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 30-35 KTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORT MAX
IS MOVING INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR NEWD THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL EXIST.  MID CLOUDS REMAIN INTACT ACROSS SWRN NEB...BUT MAY
ERODE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION INTO SWRN NEB...WITH APPROACHING STORMS
PERHAPS MAINTAINING A SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
THEY MOVE NEWD.

..RACY.. 07/26/01

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