SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1761 FOR NRN ND/NRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 659...

VALID 080436Z - 080700Z

DEVELOPING MCS OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA EXTRAPOLATES TO MINNESOTA
BORDER AROUND 0700Z.  THUS...A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. 

MCS CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH IR
TOPS COOLING TO ABOUT -70 C IN THE PAST 15 MINUTES.  COLD POOL HAS
BEEN GRADUALLY FORMING AND 00Z ETA/AVN SOLUTION OF TAKING MCS
RAPIDLY EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 12Z
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR BOW ECHO WITH DAMAGING WINDS.  GIVEN
PRESENCE OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN STRONG/SEVERE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA.  STRONG MESOSCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OCCURRING AS 30
KNOT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTERCEPTS
WEST-EAST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT NEARLY A RIGHT
ANGLE.  SLIGHTLY MORE ELEVATED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION IMPLIES
LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT IN WESTERN HALF OF CURRENT
WEATHER WATCH.   

..CRAVEN.. 08/08/01