SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1794 FOR NERN CO..SWRN NEB..NWRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

VALID 141919Z - 142200Z

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. 

SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE A LOW CENTER NEAR OGA WITH AN E-W
ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL NEB...AND A TROUGH
AXIS/WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTING SWD FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO CENTRAL
CO. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY INCREASED INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90
WITHIN WARM SECTOR OVER FAR ERN CO/NWRN KS/SWRN NEB.  THOUGH WAVE
CLOUDS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST CAP STILL HOLDS OVER NWRN KS...
FURTHER HEATING AND INCREASING UVV/S AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. 

DESPITE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...MEAN-MIXED CAPES WILL INCREASE INTO
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE GIVEN THE WARM AND RELATIVELY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER.  IN ADDITION...PROFILERS INDICATE 30 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR UNDER 20-25 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL FLOW.  THEREFORE...
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WINDS GIVEN THE 30F
SURFACE T-TD SPREADS.  MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY
THIS ACTIVITY.  

..EVANS.. 08/14/01